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A Non-Guarantee Put to the Test (part 1)
The Ballad of Fannie & Freddie

by Robert Folsom
3/13/2008 2:30:00 PM

Once upon a time, the U.S. government created the secondary mortgage market. (During FDR's New Deal, if you're dying to know). With help from the agency known as Fannie Mae, this government creation grew tall and strong. What's more, the government held a virtual monopoly over its creation for several decades -- and after all, the market was its creation....

Filed Under: credit crunch, Freddie Mac, government bonds, great depression, Real Estate, real-estate, recession, subprime, subprime mortgage, subprime mortgages, Wall Street
Category: Economy


Are Banks Worried About You?
Furrowed brows, maybe, but for who?

by Alan Hall
8/13/2007 2:45:00 PM

Stock markets closed lower today, Monday, August 13, 2007

Filed Under: real-estate, conquer the crash, banking
Category: Economy


Investigating the Event Cascade
Want crystal clear hindsight? Start with a valid premise.

by Alan Hall
8/1/2007 4:40:00 PM

Aircraft disasters are examined in minute detail. When a cause is found, investigators seek causes of the cause as they work back through the "event cascade" that initiated the crash. We do this same after-the-fact investigation of financial crashes and social events like wars, ostensibly in an effort to learn from our mistakes. Generally speaking, we humans do better at understanding the airplane crashes.

Filed Under: subprime, housing, real-estate, Market Watch, Economy, Freddie Mae
Category: Cultural Trends


Housing Hollowed Out
Never trust a muskrat

by Alan Hall
12/5/2006 11:40:00 AM

The housing market is beginning to resemble a watermelon I once floated in a pond overnight to cool. The next day a small hole was in one end and the red interior was completely gone, hollowed out to the sour green rind, sculpted by little teeth. Some muskrat had a feast.

Filed Under: Real Estate, housing, real-estate, Economy, conquer the crash, credit crunch, personal finance
Category: Real Estate


A Family Portrait of Financial Mania
We're all in the snapshot.

by Alan Hall
11/21/2006 12:45:00 PM

I write from the catbird seat here at EWI, with access to the best technical market analysis in the world. In the space of an hour I can read forecasts of commodities, currencies, stocks, metals, and interest rates, and compare them to socionomic observations of news and events. Nowhere else can you grab such a broad, detailed snapshot of the clockworks of the “engine of history.” Today’s digital snapshot is a family photo of a resurging financial mania.

Filed Under: Real Estate, housing, real-estate, Economy, banking, credit crunch, personal finance, Wall St., socionomics, debt
Category: Cultural Trends


Deflation is a Process, Not an Event
And doesn't move in a straight line...

by Alan Hall
10/17/2006 12:50:00 PM

People tend to associate predictions with events, not processes. Because our culture-at-large encourages brief attention spans, it's confusing to be carried along in a long, unfolding process. If it happens slowly, it is much easier to deny. That is, unless you have lost your job, or house, or both.

Filed Under: housing, real-estate, Economy, credit crunch, personal finance, inflation, debt
Category: Economy


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.