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Why the Jobs Report Does Not Point to a Better Economy or Higher Stock Prices
The stock market leads the economy, not the other way around

By Bob Stokes
7/5/2013 5:00:00 PM

The long-term evidence strongly suggests that the July 5 jobs report is what to expect after the prolonged stock market rally. In other words: Improved jobs data is not an indicator of what's ahead. The jobs figures should be viewed as an effect of what's already occurred. The Elliott Wave Principle imparts an immense amount of knowledge about the position of markets and the economy. See what the Wave Principle reveals now.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, economic indicators, Elliott wave, history, investor psychology, nonfarm payrolls, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy


S&P 500: January to Remember, But What's Next?
Rather than waiting for Friday's U.S. unemployment report, you can get a hint at the market's future action right now.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/31/2013 6:15:00 PM

On a percentage basis the DJIA has had its best January since 1989, the S&P since 1997. Yet mainstream analysts seem to think that fears about Friday's (February 1) jobs report made the markets very nervous on the last trading day of January. But rather than waiting until 8:30 a.m. on Friday, you can get a hint at the market's future action from Elliott wave patterns in the charts of the Dow and S&P 500 right now.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, futures trading, Nasdaq Composite, nonfarm payrolls, S&P 500, technical analysis

Category: Stocks


400 Analysts and Economists Are Bullish. But Before You Join Them, See This Chart
Most investors have very short memory. You don't have to be one of them

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/4/2011 5:30:00 PM

Please read these financial news headlines and then take a guess as to when they were published...

Filed Under: bull market, buy and hold, credit crisis, Elliott wave, housing prices, International Monetary Fund (IMF), nonfarm payrolls, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries, unemployment

Category: Stocks


EUR/USD: Will the Rally Continue?
Fundamental analysis cannot tell you where the USD is going from here.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/6/2009 3:30:00 PM

Following Friday's unemployment report, the U.S. dollar promptly lost to the euro. While this may seem like a "normal" market reaction to a bad economic number, think back to January 9, when the previous sharply negative jobs number was released. Following that report, the USD gained, and strongly. So, the same bad employment number can send the dollar higher and lower? Interesting...

Filed Under: unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, U.S. dollar, euro/USD exchange rate

Category: Currencies


U.S. Dollar Vs. Euro: Expect A Turbulent Thursday
The double whammy of economic news should make for interesting trading on July 3.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/1/2008 6:30:00 PM

On Thursday, July 3, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. That same day, economists expect the U.S. jobs number to show a 60,000 reduction. Question: How would the two events affect the U.S. dollar's standing against other currencies?

Filed Under: european central bank, euro/USD exchange rate, nonfarm payrolls

Category: Currencies


EURUSD (Forex): It's Oh So Quiet
After every choppy move comes a price spike.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/4/2008 5:00:00 PM

If you trade forex, you've probably been watching the current action – or, rather, lack of it – in the euro-dollar exchange rate and wondering what's going on. The action has been pitiful: After falling almost 200 pips in a matter of hours on Tuesday (June 3), the EURUSD entered a sideways trading range that has continued for… well, almost 30 hours, as of this writing. How will it end?

Filed Under: euro/USD exchange rate, nonfarm payrolls

Category: Currencies


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.