Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

Forecasts for the Dow Industrials: Off the Charts and Then Some
If you thought Dow 60,000 was far-fetched

By Bob Stokes
5/15/2013 2:30:00 PM

The February Elliott Wave Theorist noted that "money managers are predicting a Dow as high as 60,000." If you think that is way too optimistic, look at this other forecast.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Elliott wave, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929
IPOs are set to raise the most money since 2007.

By Bob Stokes
5/13/2013 5:00:00 PM

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"?  One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, investor psychology, risk appetite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


How an Instinct Can Be Financially Dangerous
Beware of what accompanies market tops.

By Bob Stokes
5/9/2013 4:45:00 PM

Teenagers dress and talk alike. This natural tendency to conform carries into adulthood. Nowhere is the human tendency to conform more pronounced than in financial markets. Investors instinctively adopt the market views of people they perceive to be "in the know." Learn why this instinct can be financially dangerous.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Classic Prechter


Commodities Overview: The Wheels of Change Are in Motion
New April 2013 Monthly Futures Junctures: The big picture commodities outlook for 2013 and 2014.

By Nico Isaac
4/29/2013 6:30:00 PM

In March 2013, a Geneva-based research study concluded that commodity markets are driven by "self-reinforcing mechanisms," and not "by external information." The Elliott Wave Principle identifies that "self-reinforcing mechanism" as investor psychology, which unfolds in clear and observable Elliott wave patterns on market price charts. When it comes to anticipating those patterns and forecasting the trend in key commodities, nobody is more qualified than EWI’s senior analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor, Jeffrey Kennedy.

Filed Under: commodities, cotton futures, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, head and shoulders pattern, investor psychology, Jeffrey Kennedy, soybean futures

Category: Commodities


Sugar Futures Fall, and Elliott Waves Are There to "Catch" Them
How exactly does Elliott wave analysis work?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/18/2013 9:00:00 PM

If you come to our website often, you have seen many examples of the waves' ability to forecast the markets. But what makes that possible?

Filed Under: commodities, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, futures trading, investor psychology, Jeffrey Kennedy, sugar futures

Category: Commodities


Investors Pile $61 Billion into Stocks (But Look Who's Selling)
Technology executives sell shares at a record pace.

By Bob Stokes
4/12/2013 4:00:00 PM

A financial professional recently opined on television that "You have to be in this market." Investors beat him to the punch. They've piled $61 billion into stock funds and ETFs so far in 2013. Inflows are on track to be the largest since 2000. But not everyone is buying. Learn about one group that's been selling at a frantic pace.

Filed Under: buy and hold, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, investor psychology, mania, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Fear, Greed and Neuroeconomics: Q&A with Cambridge's Michelle Baddeley
Dr. Baddeley will discuss her latest research on financial herding at the 3rd Annual Social Mood Conference.

By Jill Noble
3/28/2013 2:30:00 PM

Learn about new research techniques that measure financial decisionmaking processes in this interview transcript...

Filed Under: herding, investment decisions, investor psychology, social mood, socionomics summit

Category: Socionomics


NASDAQ's 15% Drop in 2000: a Snapshot of Market History or a Picture of its Future?
Is increased stock market volatility just ahead?

By Bob Stokes
3/27/2013 5:15:00 PM

From March to April 2000, the NASDAQ declined 15%. Many investors bought the dip in the months after the peak, but it was only the beginning of a larger decline. In the 2000-2002 price plunge, the technology-heavy index lost a whopping 78%. Do investors today have a similar mindset to the prevailing market psychology of 2000? Recent sentiment measures say "Yes."

 

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, history, investor psychology, market crash, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: Stocks


Two Big Names Give 'Thumbs Up' to the Stock Market
Plus, a former bear switches camps

By Bob Stokes
3/20/2013 4:45:00 PM

When it comes to reaching a large audience, few voices can compete with the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, or with the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve. One of each has recently given their blessing to the stock market. Many investors will be assured by these bullish comments from well-known people. Yet it's fair to ask whether today's extreme bullish market sentiment -- after a four-year rally -- should perhaps startle market participants. Indeed, the evidence suggests that this juncture in the financial markets is so rare that no living market participant has ever experienced a time like it.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, history, investor psychology, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


It's True Love for the Dow Industrials
Will stock market bulls suffer a broken heart?

By Bob Stokes
3/14/2013 4:30:00 PM

Most stock market investors are head over heels for the Dow. Even though the market has already trended higher for four years, market participants believe prices have more room to climb. Some investors are prepared to embrace equities even if prices decline. Extreme market sentiment (bullish or bearish) usually indicates that the crowd has already acted. Yet, sentiment is just one of the three pillars of market forecasting.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, sentiment, short selling

Category: Stocks


3 Common Trading Pitfalls -- Plus 6 Free Lessons
If your technical approach needs improvement, you are not alone. Our FREE report can help!

By Jill Noble
3/11/2013 4:45:00 PM

If you find yourself caught in bad trades, consider whether you've fallen prey to one of these common trading problems...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Education, elliott wave junctures, investor psychology, Jeffrey Kennedy, risk management, Traders, trading lessons

Category: Education


The New York Stock Exchange Purchase Announcement Sends a Major Market Clue
A big market signal may be overlooked

By Bob Stokes
2/13/2013 5:45:00 PM

There are well-known market indicators which have stood the test of time. Many are technical, some are seasonal and others are sentiment indicators. Yet there's one sentiment indicator that most contrarian investors may overlook. And this one involves the New York Stock Exchange itself. Learn more.

Filed Under: CNBC, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, investor psychology, Magazine Cover Indicator, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), sentiment, steve hochberg, stock indexes, technical analysis

Category: Stocks


Mark Buchanan, Former Editor of Nature and New Scientist, Talks Social Mood
Q&A with author of "Forecast: What Extreme Weather Can Teach us About Economics"

By Jill Noble
2/7/2013 1:45:00 PM

"We know fully well that there are all these interactions going on and that there have to be collective patterns of mood..."

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Education, herding, investor psychology, social mood, socionomics, socionomics summit

Category: Socionomics


Stock Market Lesson: "Institutional Investors Say a Crash Can't Happen"
Even professional investors can be radically wrong

By Bob Stokes
2/4/2013 4:45:00 PM

Even those who head large financial institutions can be way off the mark with financial assessments. That was the case around the 1929 stock market top and other historical market milestones. Market history may repeat as prominent Wall Street figures sing from the same songbook. Learn why it's an important time to be an independent-minded investor.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market crash, market forecasts, mutual funds, risk management, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


Margin Debt is Fueling the Market Rally
Investors ignore the sign posts at their peril

By Bob Stokes
2/1/2013 3:00:00 PM

Margin debt is fueling the market rally, and the investors behind the wheel have no fear. Bob Prechter warns about this hazardous combination, and issues a bold stock market forecast for the next 3-1/2 years. Be aware that investors may face the most significant market juncture of the past three centuries.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, debt, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, investor psychology, market forecasts, sentiment, VIX

Category: Stocks


(Interview) The Physics of Finance and Extreme Weather
Author and Physicist Mark Buchanan makes the case for economies as natural, patterned systems.

By Jill Noble
1/31/2013 2:00:00 PM

Q&A with an acclaimed academic professional slated to speak at the upcoming Social Mood Conference.

Filed Under: investor psychology, social mood, socionomics, socionomics summit

Category: Socionomics


High-End Real Estate: "The Market is Insane, I've Never Really Seen Anything Like It."
What's ahead for the re-inflation of real estate?

By Bob Stokes
1/25/2013 3:30:00 PM

Second chances don't always present themselves in financial markets. And when opportunities to recoup losses do appear, the psychology of the moment may stop people from taking beneficial actions. Consider the stock market and the recent surge in high-end real estate prices.

Filed Under: CNBC, economic indicators, Elliott wave, herding, home sales, housing prices, investor psychology, mania, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy


U.S. Stocks: Today's Market Sentiment Starkly Contrasts 2009's
How extreme sentiment can signal a trend ready for change

By Bob Stokes
1/24/2013 5:30:00 PM

In March 2009, stock prices were at a 12-year low, and you'd have needed to search far and wide to find someone calling for a rebound.  Most investors feared that more of the same was ahead. Instead, stocks rallied. Investor sentiment is now at the opposite extreme.

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, market forecasts, sentiment, VIX

Category: Stocks


Economic Reality Takes a Back Seat to Investor Irrationality
Following the investment crowd can be damaging to your portfolio

By Bob Stokes
1/18/2013 5:15:00 PM

The United States faces what a former Treasury Secretary calls a "debt bomb." Yet, investors continue to plow money into risk-assets, like stocks and junk bonds. Learn what Bob Prechter says about irrational investment behavior and its likely outcome.

Filed Under: bloomberg, Bob Prechter, CNBC, debt crisis, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, junk bonds, municipal bonds, sentiment, stock indexes, Treasury bonds

Category: U.S. Economy


Why "Predicting the Present" Is Not a Forecast
Stock market trend changes are almost always unexpected.

By Bob Stokes
1/7/2013 7:00:00 PM

Most mainstream market forecasts boil down to trend extrapolation. By definition, a forecast describes the future. But all too often, people who try to describe the future do little more than "predict the present." Recent bullish 2013 forecasts from Wall Street may have been voiced on the verge of a major trend change.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Bob Prechter, Citigroup, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Goldman Sachs, herding, history, investor psychology, long-term trend, market crash, market forecasts, sentiment, stock indexes, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.