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3 Sentiment Indicators Warn of a Punch to Stock Portfolios
Investors ignore Washington D.C.'s budget battle

By Bob Stokes
3/4/2013 6:00:00 PM

Money managers say there's no alternative to stocks, and even general-interest magazines scream "BUY!" One forecast is for Dow 60,000! Even after a 4-year rally, billionaire Warren Buffett still considers stocks a "good value." If it seems like market sentiment is virtually one-sided, that's because it is. It's time to look at the stock market from another angle.

Filed Under: bloomberg, CNBC, Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, investment strategy, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


Is Apple's Drop into Bear Market Territory a Harbinger for the Broader Market?
The bearish mood that took a bite out of Apple may tug on the overall market.

By Bob Stokes
12/6/2012 4:30:00 PM

In the past few years, Apple, Inc., stock seemed to defy Newton's law of gravity as it ascended to its all-time intraday high of $705. But in light of recent market action, investors are wondering if Apple can keep up with its hype. The money-manager favorite just had its worst single session decline since 2008. At least one investment letter was not surprised by Apple stock's retreat.

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, hedge funds, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, stock indexes, technical analysis, volume

Category: Stocks


Game Over for Hedge Funds: Expect Disastrous Outflows at Just the Wrong Time
Some hedge funds swing for the fences, even as others strike out

By Bob Stokes
11/13/2012 6:00:00 PM

Poor performance has prompted a growing number of hedge fund managers to walk away. Yet, many hedge funds that are still in the game believe that this is the right time to go for broke. But EWI's analysis suggests that the big financial game is deep into overtime -- and the clock is about to run out.
 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, hedge funds, investment strategy, risk appetite, short selling

Category: Stocks


U.S. Dollar Index: The Buck Will Not Stop Here
How high will the greenback go?

By Bob Stokes
11/6/2012 4:00:00 PM

The direction the crowd takes is usually not the best indicator for decision-making about investments, including the U.S. dollar. EWI takes an independent view of the U.S. Dollar Index, one of the key markets covered in its Financial Forecast Service. See what we see.

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, forex, hedge funds, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


U.S. Markets: The Flow of Excessive Liquidity Cannot Be Endless
Prices of risk assets correspond to liquidity flow

By Bob Stokes
10/8/2012 6:00:00 PM

Loose money has flowed into financial assets. Prices have risen as institutional investors employ leverage of 30x and higher. The flow of excessive liquidity cannot be endless. So what happens to risk-asset prices when that flow starts to dry up? Take a look at two charts.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, diversification, Elliott wave, hedge funds, liquidity, market forecasts, quantitative easing, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET, volume

Category: Stocks


Prechter: "Market Perversity is on Display Here"
The smartest investors in the world are losing money

By Bob Stokes
9/28/2012 4:30:00 PM

Bulls and bears alike have lost money in stocks. Yet, EWI sees a growing body of evidence that the next turn in the trend will be so decisive that...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, hedge funds, market forecasts, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Most-Owned Stocks Among Institutions Are In a Bear Market
The underestimated downside of over-leveraged stock indexes

By Bob Stokes
9/17/2012 4:45:00 PM

When the popular indexes like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ start to catch up on the downside, the descent will likely unfold with speed. That's because, when fear is combined with highly leveraged positions, the big money can...

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, diversification, Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, investor psychology, liquidity, market forecasts, momentum, technical indicators, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


What Happens After Stock Mutual Funds Get Fully Invested
Stock mutual fund managers are almost "all in"

By Bob Stokes
8/9/2012 3:45:00 PM

There's a never-ending stream of chatter about the stock market. Opinions you hear from money managers and other financial professionals seem to change week to week. But, the best way to know what the "big money" thinks is to...

Filed Under: cash, Elliott wave, hedge funds, investment strategy, mutual funds, pension funds, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Lessons I Learned at Peter Brandt's Traders Boot Camp
How a Professional Trading Mentor Helped Me

By Debbie Hodgkins
8/2/2012 2:15:00 PM

A few weeks ago, I attended Peter Brandt's Traders Boot Camp in Colorado Springs. I saw this as a great opportunity because I've been an investor all of my adult life, and started to do shorter-term trading about four years ago. I'd heard a lot about Peter and his Boot Camp from others, and so I decided to see if I could gain some first-hand wisdom to apply to my trading. Here's my brief story about the event.

Filed Under: futures trading, head and shoulders pattern, hedge funds, Peter Brandt, risk management, technical analysis, Traders, trading lessons

Category: Trading Lessons


Day of Reckoning Approaches for Public Pension and Hedge Funds
Learn how to protect your portfolio in the tumultuous financial times ahead

By Bob Stokes
7/20/2012 4:45:00 PM

Make no mistake; the buying opportunity of a lifetime is ahead. As an investor, your goal is to be ready for it. Before then, U.S. markets will likely experience severe turmoil, and most investors will throw in the towel (that is, if the markets don't knock them out first). Many investors had a similar mind-set as stocks were approaching...

Filed Under: buy and hold, Elliott wave, hedge funds, herding, investment decisions, investment strategy, market forecasts, mutual funds, pension funds, personal finance, risk management, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


Why Lower Gas Prices Are Not Bullish for U.S. Markets
The 53 percent who own stocks may lose much more than they save at the pump

By Bob Stokes
6/26/2012 5:15:00 PM

You might think that a lower price at the pump is only good news. But for the 53 percent of Americans who own stocks, there's a reason to be concerned...

Filed Under: all the same market theory, commodities, crude oil, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, hedge funds, market forecasts

Category: Stocks


Bank Capital Rules: A Reminder of 2008
"In 2008 there was a credit crisis. The next five years will bring on the credit crisis."

By Bob Stokes
5/10/2012 5:00:00 PM

Is our financial system stronger today than it was four years ago? Most people might think so; mainstream news analysis rarely suggests otherwise. But here's what the public remains mostly in the dark about...

Filed Under: banks, central banks, conquer the crash, credit rating, debt crisis, debt downgrade, deflation, economic depression, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, hedge funds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy


Stock Fund Favorites: When Darlings Get Dumped
How much like 1973 is today?

By Bob Stokes
4/23/2012 5:15:00 PM

If Apple and other fund favorites continue to lose their polish, what could that mean for the overall market? Well, let's see what market history teaches us...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Principle, hedge funds, investment decisions, investment strategy, mutual funds, Nasdaq Composite, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), pension funds, S&P 500

Category: Stocks


Public Pension Funds: Tens of Billions at Significant Risk
Is now the time to gamble with retirement?

By Bob Stokes
4/3/2012 5:00:00 PM

To meet ambitious investment return targets, some public pension funds must now swing for the fences. But many are down two strikes already, due to their previous big bets with hedge funds. What do we see ahead?...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, hedge funds, pension funds, risk appetite

Category: Stocks


A New Face (Book) of This Tech Boom: Should You Follow The Herd?
EWI's Financial Forecast reveals whether the new dot-com bubble will avoid going bust

By Nico Isaac
2/3/2012 5:00:00 PM

On February 1, Facebook revealed plans to raise $5 billion in the biggest internet initial public offering ever. Soon after, the vast majority of Facebook's 845 million users clicked "like" on the soon-to-be IPO's wall post. So, the big question remains: Does this salvo of social networking and micro-blogging sites really have a new "face"? One, for that matter, that won't turn into a sad, frowning emoticon from another tech boom gone bust?

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, herding, mutual funds, Robert Prechter, S&P 500

Category: Stocks


A Hellish Year for Hedge Funds: What Do We See Ahead?
"2011 was a year of horrors" for high-rollers.

By Bob Stokes
1/4/2012 5:15:00 PM

"The reports of hedge-fund dysfunction are starting to appear; the size and number of disruptions will multiply many times in coming months...hedge funds will find themselves unable to..." Read the rest of this quote from the October Financial Forecast...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, hedge funds, mutual funds, risk appetite

Category: Stocks


(VIDEO) Prechter on Hedge Funds and Herding
Watch a surprising anecdote about how hedge fund investors behave.

By Jill Noble
11/3/2011 5:00:00 PM

In DVD footage from the 2011 Socionomics Summit, Robert Prechter gives the following example of how “herding” among mutual fund shareholders can cause deep harm, even when the fund itself is successful

Filed Under: hedge funds, herding, Robert Prechter, socionomics, socionomics summit, video

Category: Socionomics


"The Single Most Important Insight" About Market Behavior
The principle of investor expectations

By Bob Stokes
8/31/2011 2:45:00 PM

The public's behavior points to an insight that Robert Prechter once shared with an interviewer. Asked if there's a basic secret to market behavior, he said...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


Gold and Silver: Why Are Prices Falling?
The timeline of the selloff reveals whether the recent news headlines are the real culprit

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/5/2011 3:30:00 PM

Gold and silver fell hard again on May 5: Gold touched an intraday low of $1463 per ounce (from $1,577 on May 2), and silver fell as low as $35 an ounce (from $49 on April 25.) Investors want explanations, and here are some of the more popular ones...

Filed Under: diversification, Elliott wave, gold futures, hedge funds, inflation, mania, market crash, market manipulation, safe haven, short selling, silver futures, U.S. dollar, volatility

Category: Gold and Silver


(Audio) Socionomics: First Do No Harm
An interview with Hedge Fund Manager Scott Reamer

By Jill Noble
3/3/2011 3:30:00 PM

Scott Reamer talks about his upcoming conference presentation, saying "What keeps me in this business is the intellectual vigor that goes along with appreciating and understanding the implications of the socionomic theory."

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, herding, social mood, socionomics

Category: Socionomics


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.