By Bob Stokes
4/25/2012 5:45:00 PM
In the United States and the United Kingdom alike, we believe it's a matter of time before the word "depression" replaces the phrase "double-dip recession." Why?...
Filed Under: Bank of England, deflation, double dip, economic depression, Elliott wave, european markets, FTSE, gross domestic product (GDP), recession
Category: U.S. Economy
Double Trouble for the Economy
How the low-government era morphed into the big-government era
By Bob Stokes
4/19/2012 4:00:00 PM
Two acts of Congress in 1913 turned out to be double trouble for the economy, even to this day. Robert Prechter says the "...results of big government are on the brink of getting much worse"...
Filed Under: Bob Prechter, central banks, debt, deflation, gross domestic product (GDP), history, inflation, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/28/2012 5:45:00 PM
"Markets rise on increase in US consumer confidence," said a February 28 Associated Press headline. To decipher the meaning of economic reports like this is the bread and butter of "fundamental" analysis. Inevitably, positive data is supposedly bullish for the stock market, while negative economic reports are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- of course it is! Well, take a look at this.
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, consumer confidence, Elliott wave, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, S&P 500, VIX
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
9/9/2011 2:45:00 PM
There's yet another indicator that our economic deterioration might very well accelerate more rapidly than what happened in 2008. You can see this indicator for yourself...
Filed Under: consumer confidence, consumer spending, economic depression, gross domestic product (GDP), stimulus package
Category: U.S. Economy
By Bob Stokes
8/2/2011 5:45:00 PM
During the past few years, the federal government followed Keynes' script by trying virtually everything it could to fix our weak economy. And what did we get in return?...
Filed Under: bailouts, central banks, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), gross domestic product (GDP), monetary policy, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, stimulus package
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/2/2011 4:45:00 PM
The belief that the economy drives the stock market is common knowledge; it’s Investing 101; the idea gets pounded into investors’ heads, over and over again, by various pundits, daily. But please allow us to suggest this: Belief that the GDP and other economic measures drive stock market trends is completely and utterly false.
Filed Under: Club EWI, economic depression, Elliott Wave trading, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, recession, Robert Prechter, safe haven
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
6/30/2011 4:15:00 PM
The build-up of credit in our financial system is beyond rare; it's unprecedented in at least the past 100 years of U.S. history. See the chart...
Filed Under: consumer credit, credit crisis, credit rating, deflation, Elliott Wave Theorist, great depression, gross domestic product (GDP), history, monetary policy, Robert Prechter, safe haven
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/24/2011 5:15:00 PM
On Wednesday, June 22, the Federal Reserve Bank released its latest interest rates policy statement (no change). Afterward the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held a press conference, followed by a Q&A period. The financial media paid lots of attention to what Bernanke said. Our own Steve Hochberg -- editor of the Monday-Wednesday-Friday Short Term Update -- had this to say about Bernanke's press conference...
Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, economic depression, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), gross domestic product (GDP), monetary policy, QE2, quantitative easing, recession, stimulus package, stock indexes, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)
Category: Stocks
Earnings Data: Benchmark in Sheep's Clothing
A stunning chart from Bob Prechter's April Theorist shows how earnings data is not a benchmark at all
By Nico Isaac
5/16/2011 6:00:00 PM
In the rough seas of financial forecasting, the mainstream "captains" have always relied on certain time-honored tools for navigation: Breaking news, GDP figures, political scandals, weather patterns, and so on. But of all the measurements, there is one gauge widely considered to be the "North Star" of financial prognostication -- that ever-fixed mark in the economic sky that always points to the "true" future performance of major stock averages. And that gauge is earnings.
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Theorist, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, unemployment
Category: Stocks
Stocks Rally On the News of Bin Laden's Death, You Say? It's Not That Simple
Interest rates, oil prices, trade balances, corporate earnings and GDP: None of them seem to be important, or even relevant, to explaining stock price changes
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/2/2011 5:30:00 PM
MarketWatch.com ran an interesting story on May 2 that quoted from a research paper which found "little evidence that non-economics events have a big effect on the stock market." Here at EWI, we go one step further and say the following: Economic events have little impact on the stock market, too. Don't believe us? See this chart.
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, deficit, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
4/20/2011 2:45:00 PM
Many astute historians and economists have for years warned of the dangers of America's debt and deficit. And politicians have kicked the can down the road the whole time. But now, a major credit rating agency just downgraded the credit outlook for the United States of America. Learn what we see ahead...
Filed Under: credit crisis, credit rating, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/28/2011 3:45:00 PM
The belief that the GDP and other economic measures drive stock market trends is alive and well. Yet the reality is that "stocks lead the economy, normally by months." EWI's president Robert Prechter has studied this subject in depth. Here's an excerpt from his June 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist, written shortly before the DJIA went into the most violent part of the 2007-2009 crash.
Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, bull market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, social mood, Wall Street
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/28/2011 12:45:00 PM
What if the Fed raises interest rates? What if the DJIA falls (or rallies)? What if China "dumps" the U.S. dollar? How would each of these factors affect the dollar, the euro, the pound? Too many forex traders based their trading strategies on these complex webs of interconnected economic and political "what-ifs." Well, Friday, January 28 gave us another good example of why the "fundamental" logic is a poor forecaster...
Filed Under: diagonal triangle, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex trading, gross domestic product (GDP), U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)
Category: Currencies
Silver and Gold Sinking: A Buying Opportunity?
At a time when gold bugs see every price dip as a buying opportunity, it's important to look at a larger picture
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/14/2011 6:00:00 PM
You wouldn't know it by looking at all the "We Buy Gold!" ads on late-night TV and your local pawn shops, but gold and silver have sold off hard since the beginning of the year. Why are precious metals falling? "Growing investor confidence," say the mainstream experts. But if you're looking for an independent perspective, you've come to the right place.
Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, gold futures, gross domestic product (GDP), hyperinflation, inflation, Robert Prechter, safe haven, sentiment, silver futures, Sovereign Debt, technical analysis
Category: Gold and Silver
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/28/2010 3:15:00 PM
"There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts, who look at the same 'fundamental' news event a war, interest rates, P/E ratio, GDP, economic policy, the Fed’s monetary policy, you name it and come up with countless opposing conclusions. They generally don’t even bother to study the data." (EWI president Robert Prechter.) You need objective tools to make objective forecasts. So, we put together a unique resource for you: a free 118-page Independent Investor eBook, where you see dozens of examples and charts that show what really creates market trends.
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, Chinese markets, diversification, earnings, Elliott Wave Principle, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), gross domestic product (GDP), gold futures, hyperinflation, inflation, monetary policy, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, supply and demand, Treasury bills (T-bills), U.S. Treasuries, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds
Category: Gold and Silver
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/20/2010 12:30:00 PM
This is Part VI of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president examines economists' “Claim #5: 'GDP drives stock prices'” -- and brings you another eye-opening conclusion.
Filed Under: crude oil, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, fundamental analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/24/2010 2:30:00 PM
After the failure of so many conventional financial and economic models in the 2007-2009 stock market crash ("Efficient Market Hypothesis," "Buy-and-Hold," etc.) many investors have realized that it's time to start thinking independently. If you are one of them, you will enjoy the free Club EWI resource we've created for you: the 188-page Independent Investor eBook packed with charts and insights that dispel many financial myths. Enjoy this quick excerpt...
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, gross domestic product (GDP), buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
Category: Stocks
By Nico Isaac
3/3/2010 1:45:00 PM
For over ten decades, the mainstream financial world has embraced the view that external news events drive trend changes in the markets. In less than ten minutes, EWI's senior tutorial instructor Wayne Gorman shatters that very idea into a fine dust, swept away into thin air. In part one of his exclusive, free Club EWI video series "Why Use The Wave Principle," Wayne first assesses the pitfalls of relying on macroeconomic models to forecast.
Filed Under: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), gross domestic product (GDP), Elliott Wave Principle
Category: Stocks
GDP Up, DJIA Down: What Happened?
Our collective emotions play a huge role in our investment decisions.
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/1/2010 4:15:00 PM
Last Friday (January 29) was a great day to watch the stock market and compare the price action against the explanations from analysts. Throughout the day, investors and analysts simply focused on the news stories that best fit that hour in the market... This seems like a flawed approach, and here's why.
Filed Under: gross domestic product (GDP), Ben Bernanke, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), U.S. dollar, Random Walk Theory
Category: Stocks
U.S. Government: The New Growth Industry
Does increasing government share of U.S. economy bode well for the recovery? On the contrary, writes EWI's Jason Farkas.
By Jason Farkas
12/28/2009 6:15:00 PM
Don’t be fooled into thinking the Great Recession is over because of the recent 3.5% gain in third-quarter GDP. The only reason for the uptick was the government’s contribution. Because the government’s size has increased so dramatically since 2000, the U.S. is now closer to socialism than capitalism. And here's what that could mean for the U.S. economy.
Filed Under: socialism, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave Principle
Category: U.S. Economy