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U.S. Dollar (Forex): Speculation Vs. Facts
Why did the euro-dollar rally so unexpectedly on Monday (May 12)?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/12/2008 5:30:00 PM

The newswires trumpeted the dollar's slight gain in the post-weekend trading as a sign that the greenback's decline is over, citing numerous "speculations" and "rumors." Too bad the dollar reversed on Monday morning and slid significantly against major currencies, losing almost 200 pips to the euro. EWI's Currency Specialty Service, however, has held a bearish view on the USD since Friday. Why? In short, because there is speculation – and then there are facts...

Filed Under: forex, Federal Reserve, interest rates, dollar futures, eur/usd, forex news
Category: Currencies


Forex: Fed Cuts Rates…And The U.S. Dollar GAINS?
The word "speculation" is not part of proper Elliott wave lexicon.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/30/2008 3:45:00 PM

On Wednesday morning, forex analysts speculated that the U.S. dollar was "headed for its first monthly advance against the euro." But after the Federal Reserve anounced its rate cut at 2:15 PM, the dollar lost instead. What happened?

Filed Under: currency traders, Federal Reserve, interest rate cut, u.s. dollar, euro-dollar, eurusd, forex
Category: Currencies


U.S. Dollar Gains Big; EURUSD Slides. Why?
It's traders' collective psychology that creates trends, not the news.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/24/2008 6:30:00 PM

Since Tuesday (April 22), the EURUSD lost close to 400 pips, or four cents. As usual, the question on every forex trader's mind is – why is the dollar suddenly gaining on the euro?

Filed Under: forex, euro-dollar, business confidence germamy, U.s. durable goods report
Category: Currencies


Trading Forex: Patience Pays Off
Trading is not a "one-size-fits-all."

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/3/2008 7:45:00 PM
"4/01/2008 - Tuesday was a great example of why patience in the market is so important for most traders. When I first looked at the chart of the Dollar Index, I saw a rally that had retraced just about 61.8% of the prior decline..."
Filed Under: currency, trading, forex, USD-JPY, USD-CAD, dollar Index
Category: Currencies


Video (Forex): War Of Words - A Telling Sign Of Reversal
When market psychology gets too one-sided, it's often a sign of an impending reversal.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/24/2008 6:15:00 PM

In early March, arguments over the weakening U.S. dollar got quite heated. Calls on the U.S. Federal Reserve to "do more" to support the dollar and forecasts for the euro/dollar exchange rate of $1.60 or higher were not uncommon. That's when -- seemingly against all odds -- the USD reversed and started pushing higher against the EUR and other major currencies. Why?

Filed Under: Federal Reserve, euro/dollar, forex, currency
Category: Currencies


Forex: Fed Cuts…and the U.S. Dollar Gains?!
Elliott Wave International discusses the importance of price action, rather than the news, to the trend in the U.S. dollar.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/18/2008 5:30:00 PM
Question: When the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank lowers interest rates, what is the U.S. dollar supposed to do, according to the conventional economic wisdom? That’s right, fall. So why then did the dollar gain today (March 18) after the Fed cut rates by a hefty 0.75%?
Filed Under: u.s. dollar, euro, interest rates, Federal Reserve, forex, currency, Jim Martens
Category: Currencies


VIDEO (Forex): How To Use Market Corrections to Your Advantage
Elliott Wave International shows in a free video a technique for taking advantage of complex market corrections.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/9/2008 9:40:33 PM

In mid-February, the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen stood near 108. Today, it stands near 102, some 600 points (or pips) lower. What if you knew a technique, which -- just by looking at chart picture of the USD/JPY -- could have warned you of this move before it occurred? The free 9-minute video you are about to see shows you just how to do it.

Filed Under: u.s. dollar, japanese yen, forex, Currencies
Category: Currencies


Forex: EUR/USD -- Explain This, Please
Elliott Wave International discusses a strange lack of logic in the recent reaction to the news by the euro/dolalr exchange rate.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/1/2008 12:30:00 PM

Just minutes after the release of a disappointing U.S. employment report last Friday morning (Feb. 1), the U.S. dollar suddenly got stronger and the EUR/USD exchange rate plunged. The fall was fast and deep; by Friday night, the dollar stood over 100 pips stronger against the euro -- despite the morning's bad economic news. Strange? You can say that again. But what happened next was even stranger.

Filed Under: forex, european central bank, hawkish, currency, trade, u.s. employment report, exchange rates, euro, dollar
Category: Currencies


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.