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EURUSD Drops Below 1.30... Why, Again?
Wave analysis works because it helps you track the waves of the market's crowd psychology, which unfold in predictable patterns.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 4:30:00 PM

It's official: The euro zone economy has now been in the longest recession since the EUR was introduced in 1999. That news hit the wires on May 15. No wonder EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell that day as the U.S. dollar took the upper hand. But let's take a look at what happened from an Elliott wave perspective...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, eurozone, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies

EURUSD: Big Week Ahead
Will the euro rally or fall on the news from the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/29/2013 5:15:00 PM

Two news stories from Europe hit the headlines Monday morning (Apr. 29). One: Italy finally ended its political chaos and swore in the new government. Two: The eurozone economic confidence fell more than expected. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most traded forex market, rose on Monday. But pretend for a second that you didn't know that. Try this instead...

Filed Under: consumer confidence, currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Traders, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies

Cyprus Banking Bailout: Costs Rise, Heads Roll
The officials and experts who didn't see the crisis coming were supposed to prevent it in the first place.

By Nico Isaac
4/16/2013 5:00:00 PM

The cost of the Cyprus bailout seems to get bigger every week. It has gone from 10€ to 17€ and now to 23€ billion euros. What's more, recent reports say the island nation will need a bigger bake sale to raise the necessary funds to foot the growing bill. On April 12, rumors swirled that the European Central Bank will force Cyprus to liquidate half-a-billion dollars of its gold reserves.

Filed Under: bailouts, banks, central banks, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets

Short-Term Euro Memory Loss
.. And long-term euro calls from EWI's European Financial Forecast

By Nico Isaac
4/1/2013 5:15:00 PM

Recently I watched "Memento," the excellent movie about a man with retrograde amnesia who tries to solve his wife's murder. The protagonist has about 30 seconds to write down new clues on scraps of paper -- or in some cases tattoo those clues onto his body -- before his short-term memory completely fails. 

Filed Under: central banks, currency, Elliott wave, euro, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, U.S. dollar

Category: European Markets

Forex: Don't Write Off The Euro Just Yet
"We all know the euro is going lower," is today's popular sentiment. Yet Elliott waves suggest there is hope for the euro yet.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/28/2013 4:00:00 PM

Despite the "success" of the Cyprus bailout, the sentiment towards the euro zone currency, the euro, has been negative. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell to a new low for 2013. But while "everyone knows the euro is going lower," read this recent tweet by EWI's senior currency strategist...

Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies

Crude Oil Analysis Without the 800-pound Swinging Cyprus Gorilla on its Back
On March 1, Energy Specialty Service outlined a near-term bullish scenario in crude oil

By Nico Isaac
3/26/2013 5:45:00 PM

According to the mainstream experts, crude oil prices are "struggling to find direction due to the confusing position taken by authorities in reaction to Cyprus." Yet if you look elsewhere regarding crude's price trend -- like a basic chart of crude like the one below -- you can easily see that the market has had no problem finding a direction...

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, eurozone, Traders

Category: Energy

Has the European Central Bank Defeated the Sovereign Debt Crisis Once and For All?
A three-paneled chart reveals whether the critical precondition for recovery, consumer borrowing, is underway in Europe.

By Nico Isaac
3/21/2013 5:15:00 PM

The conventional wisdom would have to agree. Every polled financial pundit from here to the Hellenic Republic insists that – while not totally out of the woods – the worst of the eurozone economic crisis is in the rearview. The universally recognized date for the Continent’s exact turning point is July 2012. That’s when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tossed his tie over his shoulder to verbally put the naysayers in their place

Filed Under: central banks, debt crisis, euro, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, liquidity, soverign debt crisis

Category: European Markets

Could Copper Prices Be Headed to Below $3?
EWI’s Metals Specialty Service video reveals critical price levels to confirm a bearish near-term scenario is on tap

By Nico Isaac
3/19/2013 7:00:00 PM

Copper futures saw a  2.6%  selloff on March 18, to its lowest price in seven months. In no time, mainstream financial commentators took copper’s downturn and ran with it... straight into this line of fundamental fire: “Copper Prices Plummet As Investors Fret Over Cyprus Bailout.” (Associated Press)

 

Filed Under: copper futures, Elliott wave, european markets, eurozone, fundamental analysis, precious metals, Traders

Category: Gold and Silver

EURUSD: Draghi Speaks, Euro Rises?
This Elliott wave pattern saw the rally coming before Mr. Draghi ever spoke

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/7/2013 9:45:00 PM

On Thursday (Mar. 7), the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, made headlines with an optimistic statement that, "Later in 2013 economic activity should gradually recover..." The euro gained and pushed EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, as high as 1.3117. But as it's often the case, the rally was "in the waves" before the news. Take a look at this chart...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, europe, european central bank, European Union (EU), eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, trendlines, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies

A Real-Time Montage of a Developing Global Deflation
Is the global economy headed for the German economic experience of 1928-1932?

By Bob Stokes
3/1/2013 5:45:00 PM

There's mounting evidence that deflationary forces are at work in the global economy. However, many financial observers remain focused on elevated equity prices and inflation. EWI's Global Market Perspective points to Germany's 1929-1932 economic experience as an example of what global economies could soon face. Get the full real-time economic story as it unfolds in the Asian-Pacific, Europe and the United States.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bank of Japan, CNBC, conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, eurozone, inflation, recession, Walmart

Category: Global Markets

EURUSD: Story of the Week
Elliott waves in forex markets keep warning you of important trend changes

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/1/2013 3:45:00 PM

Our Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens, likes to say that, "You must faith in your analysis method." Here's another example of that. This week, the U.S. dollar strength pushed EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, below $1.30 for the first time in months. The week was rich on economic news. We learned that...

 

Filed Under: consumer confidence, Elections, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, eurozone, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), home sales, housing prices, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar, unemployment

Category: Currencies

A Fundamental Lesson from Italy's Recent Political Deadlock
European Financial Forecast uses Elliott wave analysis -- not election results -- to identify the near-term stock index trends on the Continent.

By Nico Isaac
2/27/2013 5:30:00 PM

On Feb. 26, Italy's much-anticipated Parliamentary Election ended in an impasse, when dark horse candidate/comedian Beppe Grillo earned enough votes to prevent the two leading parties from gaining a majority. In the immediate aftermath of the election, European stock markets took a synchronized leap south in single-day declines from 1.5% to 5%. On that day, the mainstream experts were unanimous: Italy's election outcome flat out bearish...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, fundamental analysis, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, social mood

Category: European Markets

Europe: The Epicenter of a Global Economic Earthquake
Will economic optimism be dashed once again?

By Bob Stokes
2/22/2013 4:45:00 PM

A big economic story can go underreported for only so long. Eventually it will show up in mainstream news headlines – a likely case in point is the euro zone's developing deflationary trend. The evidence suggests that Europe could be the epicenter of the next global economic earthquake.

Filed Under: bailouts, brian whitmer, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), eurozone, Robert Prechter, world central banks

Category: Global Markets

Starry-Eyed Surprise: The Economy Does Not Lead Stock Markets
This chart of four critical UK economic indicators sends a powerful message about the Continent's key stock markets.

By Nico Isaac
2/21/2013 5:30:00 PM

Conventional economic wisdom says economic indicators drive stock market trends. If the economic news of the day -- employment, manufacturing, home sales, etc. -- is positive, then "Joe Pundit" says that's why stock prices rallied. If those numbers are negative he says that's why prices fell. Case in point, the following news stories regarding the recent performance in London's FTSE 100:

Filed Under: DAX, economic indicators, Elliott wave, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, fundamental analysis, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter

Category: European Markets

Global Deflation: Protect Your Wealth from What the Majority Do Not Expect
Shield your wealth before trusted facilities close their doors

By Bob Stokes
2/15/2013 4:15:00 PM

Last month the economy of the United States unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Deflationary forces are affecting more than just the American markets. In fact, they're even stronger across the pond. The euro zone's accelerating economic contraction should serve as a warning sign to anyone who believes the global economy is on the road to recovery. Opportunities to protect your wealth will close shut once a deflationary trend is well underway. Learn how to access safe storage facilities for your assets.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, currency, deflation, European debt crisis, eurozone, great depression, gross domestic product (GDP), history, Robert Prechter, safe haven, Sovereign Debt

Category: Global Markets

Is It Really Time to Buy Europe?
Before you sit down at Europe's born-again-bulls table, make sure your analysis has all of its objective legs intact

By Nico Isaac
2/6/2013 12:30:00 PM

When it comes to assessing the near- and long-term trends underway in financial markets, Elliott wave analysts adopt what I call the three-legged stool approach to forecasting. Their analysis rests on three main factors: Elliott wave structure, technical indicators, and sentiment. The first two legs are tangible: Elliott wave patterns unfold in clear and calculable formations on financial market price charts. Technical indicators are also observable on price charts as oscillators or bar patterns or candlesticks and the like. But what about sentiment -- how do you measure extremes in human emotion?

Filed Under: banks, Elliott wave, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, sentiment

Category: European Markets

The Most Noteworthy Takeaway from the 2013 World Economic Forum
A perfumed outlook doesn't mean the economy passes the smell test

By Bob Stokes
1/29/2013 5:30:00 PM

Harsh economic realities versus the disconnected and extreme economic optimism at Davos should serve as an alarm. But the World Economic Forum is not the only place where economic optimism is in overdrive. Get an independent perspective on global markets and economies.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, CNBC, debt crisis, economic indicators, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, FTSE, Greek debt, International Monetary Fund (IMF), sentiment

Category: Global Markets

Is Joining the Eurozone the Path to Economic Recovery?
A chart in the latest European Financial Forecast shows whether induction into the Eurozone coincides with a new bull market

By Nico Isaac
1/28/2013 5:00:00 PM

For the economies across the pond, a common nickname for the 17-nation eurozone is "the Club."  And for the last few years, the reigning attitude regarding accession into said Club has been less gratitude and more Groucho Marx. That is, until now. In the short extent of 2013 so far, noticeable pockets have formed in the Continent's once airtight anti-euro campaign. Here, a comparison of news stories from 2011 to news storiestoday captures the dialing down of no-zone sentiment:

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european markets, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets

European Stock Markets Holding Their "Breadth" for Good News
One oscillator has helped European Short Term Update stay ahead of key, near-term price extremes.

By Nico Isaac
12/27/2012 4:15:00 PM

Every year around this time, investors act a lot like teenagers waiting anxiously by the mailbox to receive their college acceptance letters. A thin letter: Bad news. A thick packet: Good news. But instead of finding out their future alma mater, investors find out their year-end stock returns. With just a few days left on the calendar, market goers across the pond have received a very thick packet indeed. To wit: In early December 2012, the regional benchmark Euro Stoxx 600 index enjoyed its biggest annual rally since 2009 to set a new, intraday high for the year.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro, europe, european markets, eurozone, oscillators, technical indicators

Category: European Markets

Signs the European Economy is Climbing a "Wall of Worry"
As the headlines across the pond grow gloomier by the day, can Europe be considered a contrarian play?

By Nico Isaac
12/21/2012 11:45:00 AM

These days, it's difficult to find a bright side to the onslaught of negative news coming out of Europe -- unless, of course, you happen to be a contrarian. In fact, the more downtrodden the mainstream eurozone headlines become, the stronger grows the idea that Europe is becoming a strong contrarian play. So, are they right? Are European investors climbing a wall of worry in a fresh bull market?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone

Category: European Markets

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.