Forex Insight: EURUSD Pushes Higher, But for How Long?
Where will the euro go on February 9? How about on the 10th, or the day after? The latest European "fundamentals" can’t really help you with that
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/8/2012 5:15:00 PM
"NEW YORK -- The euro moved toward a two-month high as news reports challenged hopes that the European Central Bank may be the clinch to an agreement on a second bailout for Greece." (Feb. 8, Wall Street Journal) Great. Now that you know why EURUSD moved higher on February 8, where will it go on February 9? How about on the 10th? The "fundamentals" can’t really help you with that.
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Greek debt, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/3/2012 6:45:00 PM
Mainstream analysts can busily debate Europe's "fundamentals," but here at Elliott Wave international our European Financial Forecast editor Brian Whitmer reports this...
Filed Under: AEX, bailouts, Elliott wave, euro, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, prechter, technical analysis, technical indicators
Category: European Markets
Greek Stocks Surge 21%: How to Be Prepared for the Next "Surprise" out of Greece
Elliott Wave International's European Short Term Update explains why the latest rally in Greece's FT-ASE was a predictable event -- without the news or "fundamentals."
By Nathaniel Williams
2/2/2012 12:00:00 PM
Here at EWI, our analysts don't forecast based on the whims of the financial news or "fundamentals", because we know from observing market behavior for over 30 years that news and events are not the markets' driving force. Instead, we study price chart patterns -- a method we've found much more reliable at predicting trend changes. Let me show you an example using the latest stock rally in Greece.
Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt
Category: European Markets
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/23/2012 11:00:00 PM
The U.S. dollar sold off strongly in the forex markets on January 23, pushing EUR/USD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, as high as $1.3047 in the process. While the "fundamental" picture for the euro remains murky (continued Greek debt negotiations being the latest factor under the microscope) from an Elliott wave perspective, the trend in EUR/USD is much more definable, at least in the short term
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Greek debt, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/18/2012 6:30:00 PM
What was it about the Elliott wave structure of EURUSD (the euro-dollar exchange rate and world's most actively traded forex pair) that told our analysts to expect EURUSD to fall in the second half of 2011? Let's look at a sample of our actual analysis.
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, prechter, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/8/2012 11:00:00 PM
Since August 2011, the FTSE 100 has rallied in a series of three-wave structures. The FTSE Small Cap Index recorded lower lows in both October and November. The DAX’s retracement high this past fall was a Fibonacci 61.8% of its previous decline. Rallies were weaker in the CAC 40 and Eurostoxx 50, as both indexes have retraced about 50% of their respective sell-offs. Get the detailed analysis of these observations -- and our forecasts -- in the opening section of the January 2012 European Financial Forecast.
Filed Under: Bank of England, Bear market, Elliott wave, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, technical analysis, technical indicators
Category: European Markets
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/4/2012 7:00:00 PM
Looking back at 2011, almost everyone agrees that the euro weakness/dollar strength we saw was only logical. Seriously, where else was the euro to go but down last year, with all the problems in Europe? It's a wonder EURUSD didn't fall any lower! "Fundamentally"-based explanations like this always make perfect sense when you look back. It's when you try to apply them going forward, that's when it gets tricky. I'll give you an example.
Filed Under: Elliott wave, eu, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, trade targets, Traders, trading lessons, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/22/2011 5:45:00 PM
At EWI, our main forecasting tool is Elliott wave analysis. But our analysts also use a number of other, supporting technical indicators. Keltner Channels are one of the favorite technical analysis tools the editor of our European Short Term Update Chris Carolan uses. Watch this free video for more >>
Filed Under: AEX, bailouts, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, eu, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, FTSE, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons, video
Category: European Markets
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/21/2011 6:15:00 PM
On December 21, EURUSD shot up to $1.3200. Forex news headlines were quick to comment: "Euro rises on stronger US, European data." But after EURUSD hit that high, it proptly reversed and crashed down to the $1.3000 level, where it had been stuck all week. You may ask: What happened to that "euro-boost" from the "stronger US and European data"? Good question, and here's the answer...
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Nathaniel Williams
12/16/2011 5:15:00 PM
Credit rating agencies can upgrade or downgrade their ratings of financial institutions, but they don't determine the safety of those institutions -- the market does. An EU crackdown wouldn't change the market's underlying reality.
Filed Under: europe, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone
Category: European Markets
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/16/2011 4:15:00 PM
On November 4, when EUR/USD was trading near $1.38, EWI's Senior Currency Strategist and the editor of our forex-focused Currency Specialty Service, Jim Martens, recorded this video --
bearish on the EURUSD (bullish on the USD). Since then, EURUSD fell from 1.38 to below $1.30. Watch Jim explain what turned him bearish the euro, bullish the dollar on November 4 >>
Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons, U.S. dollar, video
Category: Currencies
EUR/USD: 10 Pips Away From the "Abyss"
You don't have to wait for more news from Europe to know where the euro and dollar are headed
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/13/2011 6:45:00 PM
On December 13, EUR/USD (the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively-traded forex market) fell as low as $1.3010. That's just 10 pips away from the psychologically important $1.30 level, the threshold of another potential "abyss" for the euro...
Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/5/2011 5:00:00 PM
Every recent stock rally in Europe ignites the hope that the worst of the debt crisis is finally over. Yet every mini-crash that follows mocks those hopes once again... and again... We watched ups and downs like these in 2007-2009, too.
Filed Under: bailouts, Bank of England, CAC40, DAX, economic depression, Elliott wave, eu, euro, euro stoxx 50, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, FTSE, soverign debt crisis, Swiss Market Index (SMI)
Category: European Markets
By Paul DeBoer
12/2/2011 2:00:00 PM
How many European bankers does it take to change a light bulb? That's a joke in search of an answer, but EWI's European analyst Brian Whitmer explained five months ago that the "light bulb moment" was coming -- that’s the time when most people would clearly recognize the severity of the European debt crisis. He offered this spot-on analysis back in July 2011, before the larger world came to know recently how bad things really are in the eurozone.
Filed Under: european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt
Category: European Markets
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/28/2011 10:00:00 PM
Try this. Look back at any day's news and compare it with the forex market action that followed. It's easy to reconcile the two, isn't it? You can almost always find a reason in the news why the markets did what they did. For example, EUR/USD...
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, eu, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
Markets Aren't Rational
EWI's Brian Whitmer shows how the European financial markets move despite the news
By Debbie Iseler
11/23/2011 2:45:00 PM
As the news from Europe about bailouts and the euro's viability changes by the hour, EWI's European editor, Brian Whitmer, doesn't see the uncertainty as a problem. In fact, he points out that when uncertainty blooms, you can really see that markets aren't rational and that Elliott waves tend to become even clearer.
Filed Under: brian whitmer, Club EWI, eu, euro, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone
Category: European Markets
By Susan C. Walker
11/23/2011 2:00:00 PM
It's getting harder to borrow in Europe, because lenders aren't so eager to lend.
Filed Under: europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone
Category: European Markets
EUR/USD: Don't Let the News Confuse You
Shouldn't the European Central Bank's readiness to stop the debt crisis be a euro-bullish factor?
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/16/2011 7:45:00 PM
On November 16, EUR/USD slipped to $1.3420, a low it's not seen since early October. "Euro Reaches 5-Week Low on Bets ECB to Buy More European Debt," one headline explained the euro weakness. Strange; shouldn't the European Central Bank's readiness to stop the debt crisis be a euro-bullish factor? Well, that depends.
Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, eu, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Alexandra Lienhard
11/16/2011 1:00:00 PM
Enjoy this 16-minute long interview with EWI's European Financial Forecast editor, Brian Whitmer.
Filed Under: eurozone, eu, soverign debt crisis, europe, brian whitmer, Greek debt, interview, Club EWI
Category: European Markets
40+ Global Markets: Is the Drama Yet to Unfold?
…or are markets back to their winning ways? The new Global Market Perspective gives you answers
By Nathaniel Williams
11/16/2011 10:45:00 AM
You may not have realized that in real terms, 6 of the 8 major Asian-Pacific markets Global Market Perspective covers each month still trade below their peaks of the early 1990s -- or even the late 1980s. Does that mean that the Asian bull markets have been a "fake"?
Filed Under: Chinese markets, currency, euro, eurozone, Gold, market forecasts, stock indexes, Treasury bonds
Category: Global Markets