U.S. Debt Deal: Bullish or Bearish for Stocks?
Mainstream opinions can only play catch up with the markets, while Elliott wave analysis offers you objective forecasts
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/1/2011 1:00:00 PM
Just as everyone greeted the bull in the early Monday morning trading, the DJIA reversed and fell by 100 points and the U.S. debt deal quickly went from a "bullish" to a "bearish" factor...
Filed Under: Barack Obama, debt ceiling, debt crisis, deficit, deflation, volatility
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/28/2011 2:15:00 PM
Now that the U.S. dollar is trading at an all-time low against the Swiss franc, discussions of the Swiss franc's "safe haven" appeal are commonplace. But could you have seen the USD/CHF trading as low as it is today before the news? If you know Elliott wave analysis -- yes. Here's how.
Filed Under: debt ceiling, debt crisis, deficit, Elliott Wave trading, euro, eurozone, European debt crisis, forex trading, Swiss franc, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Bob Stokes
7/5/2011 5:30:00 PM
States and cities took on large obligations when economic times were good, on the assumption that they'd have enough revenue to pay those bills in the future. But now many of those bills are due and they don't have the funds. The economy went south. To extrapolate the present into the future is unwise because trends change. You need the best method for anticipating major trend changes.We believe that best method is...
Filed Under: credit crisis, deficit, economic depression, municipal bonds, unemployment
Category: U.S. Economy
Does a Soaring Debt Ceiling Equal A Sinking U.S. Dollar?
EWI's stunning 30-year chart reveals no consistent correlation between a rising account deficit and a declining dollar
By Nico Isaac
6/28/2011 11:15:00 AM
The what: Right now, the political debatosphere is more divided than a skin cell over the issue of To-Raise, or Not-To-Raise the US debt ceiling from its $14 trillion limit. (Deadline for a decision is August 2) Yet, as split as the various parties are over what to do, they can all agree on one main issue: A rising deficit is to the U.S. dollar what King Kong is to a car.
Filed Under: deficit, Elliott Wave trading, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/9/2011 3:15:00 PM
Before you join the crowd in thinking that shrinking trade gap is bullish for stocks, read this excerpt from the 2011 edition of our popular free Club EWI resource, The Independent Investor eBook.
Filed Under: bull market, buy and hold, Club EWI, deficit, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), economic depression, Nasdaq Composite, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), QE2, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
6/7/2011 4:45:00 PM
America obviously has a debt crisis of its own. This is not to say the U.S. is currently in the same dire financial straits as Greece, etc. -- or that America's economic future will unfold in the same manner. Yet...
Filed Under: bailouts, credit crisis, credit rating, deficit, deflation, European Union (EU), Greek debt, Irish debt crisis, Sovereign Debt
Category: U.S. Economy
Stocks Rally On the News of Bin Laden's Death, You Say? It's Not That Simple
Interest rates, oil prices, trade balances, corporate earnings and GDP: None of them seem to be important, or even relevant, to explaining stock price changes
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/2/2011 5:30:00 PM
MarketWatch.com ran an interesting story on May 2 that quoted from a research paper which found "little evidence that non-economics events have a big effect on the stock market." Here at EWI, we go one step further and say the following: Economic events have little impact on the stock market, too. Don't believe us? See this chart.
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, deficit, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
Forex: Don't Rush to Bury The U.S. Dollar
When the media gets absolutely convinced the U.S. dollar is "history," it rebounds -- and surprises everybody
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/24/2011 3:00:00 PM
Financial markets -- i.e., investors -- have a short memory. For example: At Elliott Wave International, we have pointed out time and again that when market sentiment reaches a bullish or bearish extreme, chances are that a trend change is near. Yet time and again, almost everyone forgets this. Here's a fresh example. In June 2010, the U.S. dollar began a losing streak against its forex competitors...
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, deficit, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, European Union (EU), forex trading, online trading, quantitative easing, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), unemployment
Category: Currencies
Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths: Conclusion
Interest rates, oil prices, trade balance, earnings, GDP, wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/10/2011 12:30:00 PM
This is the conclusion of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president explains why traditional financial models failed in 2007-2009 -- and why they are doomed to fail again (and again). Missed this important series? Start with Part I now.
Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Ben Bernanke, bull market, crude oil, deficit, earnings, economic depression, great depression, inflation, market crash, monetary policy, terrorist attacks, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), unemployment
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
12/7/2010 3:30:00 PM
What could be as bad as the sub-prime mortgage meltdown? After all, that crisis supposedly triggered what nearly became a global financial Armageddon in 2007-2008. Well, here's one "as bad as" candidate recently in the news...
Filed Under: bailouts, credit crisis, deficit, pension funds
Category: U.S. Economy
By Nico Isaac
8/16/2010 4:45:00 PM
In the world of mainstream economic wisdom, the "laws" of fundamental market analysis are far less "writ-in-stone" than they are "writ" in non-hardening modeling clay; they shape AND reshape themselves to fit the news of the hour, taking on completely different forms than the ones that came before.
Filed Under: U.S. dollar, U.S. dollar, cash, deficit
Category: Currencies
By Nico Isaac
6/29/2010 10:30:00 AM
True or False: As the U.S. trade deficit decreases, the value of the U.S. dollar increases? According to mainstream economic wisdom, that statement is true as steel. Case in point: On June 27, the G-20 summit unveiled their "Deficit Reducing Pledge." The dollar turned up. And, the mainstream news items had a fundamental field day...
Filed Under: U.S. dollar, U.S. dollar, deficit
Category: Currencies
By Nico Isaac
5/15/2009 5:15:00 PM
True or False: As the U.S. trade deficit INCREASES, the value of the U.S. dollar DECREASES? According to mainstream economic wisdom, that statement is true as steel. And, whenever the chance arrives to pit one against the other, the usual pundits are on the scene like smog to a cityscape. The only problem is, they're wrong...
Filed Under: U.S. dollar, deficit, cash
Category: Currencies