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(Update) Crude Oil: Gentlemen, Stop Your Engines
$200 oil: How could have oil experts gotten it so wrong?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/16/2008 3:00:00 PM

After hitting an all-time high of $147 a barrel in July, oil fell as low as $77.09 (on October 10) – an almost 50% decline. And now, "Goldman Sachs, among those predicting $200 a barrel oil, cut its year-end forecast of oil to $70…" (APHow could have oil experts gotten it so wrong?

Filed Under: Crude oil, commodity bubble, OPEC
Category: Energy


Supply Fears, Oil Surges: Oops They Did It Again
A major flaw of conventional economic wisdom is blown open

by Nico Isaac
2/19/2008 5:15:00 PM

There is no exception to the power and persistence of social mood. When the time comes for it to trend DOWN, nothing, not even the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, can stop it. For that very reason, the September 2005 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast went against the bullish crude oil crowd with a special, three-page energy exclusive. In it, our analysts identified a bearish divergence in the price of oil versus the price of a share of Exxon Mobil and wrote: "These signals, combined with street level fears of a gas shortage and the explosion of oil shock books, confirm the message: the coming shock' is not that oil is booming, but that it will fall"....

Filed Under: Crude oil, hurricane katrina, bulls, supply disruptions, perfect storm, OPEC, overproduction, shock, supply/demand
Category: Energy


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.