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How To Tell a Good Forecast from a Bad One

by Susan C. Walker
1/16/2009 3:45:00 PM

Most published forecasts are at best descriptions of what already has happened. Never give any forecast a second thought unless it addresses the question of the point at which a change in trend may occur.

Filed Under: Forecast, global lending, Atlanta Braves, predictions
Category: Classic Prechter


Russia: A Classic Elliott Retracement
Ratings Services: Late Again

by Alan Hall
12/10/2008 4:00:00 PM

On December 8 of this week -- almost nine months after the RTSI peak -- Standard & Poor’s cut Russia’s debt rating, the first such downgrade since 1999. This makes you wonder: what help is a ratings service that identifies risk after the fact?

Filed Under: Russia, Ratings Services, Elliott, Forecast, BRIC
Category: Economy


Banks Need Therapy, Too
But maybe they shouldn't count on the couch

by Alan Hall
9/5/2008 4:15:00 PM

...a recent Atlanta Journal Constitution headline: “Therapists helping builders cope during housing slump.” The article explained how “Every builder seems to know a colleague swamped in debt, and a few know friends in the business who have taken their lives.” A year ago, few imagined that smiling builders talking on cell phones in big trucks would soon be seeking emotional support on therapists’ couches.

Filed Under: bailout, bailouts, banking crisis, Fannie Mae, Fed, Federal Reserve, Forecast, Forecasts, Freddie Mac, great depression, housing crisis, housing market, housing prices, housing slump
Category: Cultural Trends


Conquer the Crash Delivered Today's News in 2002
The forecasts in Bob Prechter’s best-selling book, Conquer the Crash, are coming true like falling dominoes.

by Alan Hall
8/19/2008 5:30:00 PM

The truly remarkable part of the story is how early he saw them. Bob described the ways that many dominoes would fall before some of them were even set up. His earlier book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave was published in 1995, while Conquer the Crash was in 2002. This was years before the gathering storm became obvious to “Dr. Doom,” (the New York Times’ name for economist Nouriel Roubini) who described parts of the bursting bubble in 2006.

Filed Under: Real Estate, credit, psychology, Forecast
Category: Real Estate


VIDEO: 3 Ways To Set Price Targets
How do you identify price points where a market rally or decline may stop and reverse?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2008 5:15:00 PM

In the one you're about to see, Tom Denham, EWI's Senior European Equity Analyst demonstrates his technique of setting price targets for a potential trade using three factors: Common length proportions between market rallies, the theory of "round numbers," and Fibonacci projections.

Filed Under: dax, ftse, cac40, smi, aex, ibex 35, S&P/MIB, euro stoxx 50, Forecast, fibonacci, THEORY OF round numbers, European EquitY
Category: European Markets


Gold and Silver Analysis Worth Its Weight in … You Know

by Gary Grimes
4/1/2008 5:15:00 PM

A picture is worth a thousand words. And when you look at Bob Prechter’s March 14 Elliott Wave Theorist and see that it includes 11 pictures, 5,532 words and two valuable forecasts for gold and silver, I ask you, how much are Prechter’s forecasts worth to your portfolio?

Filed Under: Gold, Silver, Forecast
Category: Precious Metals


Watch Bob Prechter's interview on CNBC Wednesday, Nov. 4. Bob discusses the current juncture, Conquer the Crash II and more.
Robert Prechter on CNBC
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As the markets enter what Bob Prechter calls "the point of recognition," we notice that mainstream media pundits who get it start to notice us, our analysts and our forecasts. You can browse dozens of recent media articles about EWI in the EWI Press Room.
 
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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.