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by
Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
10/5/2009 6:15:00 PM
On October 1, the U.S Treasuries zoomed upward as the DJIA saw its first material decline in six months. In percentage terms, the Dow's decline was insignificant -- yet bonds had one of their best single-day rallies since the summer low. Why is this important? Here's why...
Filed Under:
inflation, disinflation, deflation, prechter, elliott wave, Fed
Category:
Economy
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
9/23/2009 6:15:00 PM
What an interesting day of trading we saw in stocks on Wednesday (Sept. 23.) On the same day, we had: 1. A single event -- the Fed's interest rate announcement; 2. The stock market's bullish -- and -- bearish "reaction" to it, and 3. Several news stories explaining why stocks rallied -- and -- declined after the event. One question remains: Where will stocks go from here?
Filed Under:
Federal Reserve, Fed, interest rates, DJIA, s&p, dollar, Gold
Category:
Stocks
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by
Susan C. Walker
8/7/2009 5:00:00 PM
Here are 3 reasons why you should make sure that your investment capital is not invested “long” in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures, stock options or any other equity-based investment or speculation.
Filed Under:
AIG, bear rally, stock mutual funds, Fed
Category:
Classic Prechter
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by
Susan C. Walker
7/10/2009 6:45:00 PM
You can talk about inflation all you want, but Bob Prechter says it the best: "YOu can't beat deflation in a credit-based system."
Filed Under:
hyperinflation, deflation, Fed
Category:
Classic Prechter
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by
Nico Isaac
6/24/2009 3:45:00 PM
t's Federal Open Market Committee time again. And, even before the June 24 meeting adjourned, word-parsers were dissecting the "minutes" like a high school biology student with a frog. In short: While everyone with a pulse guesses at the meaning of Bernanke-speak, ALL of them hope his words give the stock market something to celebrate.
Filed Under:
FOMC, Fed, rate cuts, interest rates, stock market, bailout, central bank, Federal Reserve
Category:
Interest Rates
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by
Nico Isaac
5/26/2009 2:45:00 PM
According to conventional economic wisdom, the Federal Reserve is to the U.S. bond market what a hypnotist is to his patient. A typical trance would induce the following behavior: "When you hear the words 'rate cut' or 'cash infusion,' you will proceed to act like a BULL and rally." In reality, however, the bond market completely ignores the "soothing" voice of the Central Bank. Then it does whatever the hooey it wants.
Filed Under:
bond market, bond yields, U.S. bonds, Federal Reserve, Fed
Category:
Interest Rates
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by
Nico Isaac
5/1/2009 6:15:00 PM
For all you obscure holiday buffs out there, today is the first Friday of May: International "No Pants Day." (Seriously, look it up) The annual event seems especially relevant seeing as the U.S. Federal Reserve has just been caught with its metaphorical trousers down...
Filed Under:
bond market, Federal Reserve, Fed, bond yields
Category:
Interest Rates
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by
Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
3/3/2009 4:15:00 PM
At some point, the burden of the U.S. national debt burden may result in a forced restructuring to avoid default. This restructuring will be on terms dictated to us by our creditors…one of whom is a communist regime. I wonder how agreeable those terms will be.
Filed Under:
gold standard, Federal Reserve, Fed, credit, deflation, inflation
Category:
Economy
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/24/2009 5:00:00 PM
On this day of Ben Bernanke's testimony in Washington, consider this quote from Bob Prechter's November 2005 Elliott Wave Theorist: "Like the entrenched belief in continued inflation, there is a widespread expectation of smooth sailing under Bernanke. With virtually everyone prepared for either good times or severe inflation, bad times and deflation will catch them all off guard." More…
Filed Under:
Bernanke, Fed, Federal Reserve, credit, deflation, home prices
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
12/17/2008 4:45:00 PM
On December 16, the Dow Jones Industrial Average supposedly soared more than 300 points after the Federal Reserve cut rates to the record low .25% to 0% range. On December 17, the stock market slid back into negative territory. Explanation? How's this: The market leads, not follows, the Fed...
Filed Under:
Federal Reserve, Fed, rate cuts, dow jones industrial average
Category:
Stocks
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by
Nico Isaac
12/10/2008 5:00:00 PM
"Big Ben Fires Up The Choppers," reveals a recent Forbes article. "Choppers" being the "helicopter" from which the Federal Reserve will drop bundles of printed money into the hands of the public, thus staving off deflation. Will it work? Find out today...
Filed Under:
Federal Reserve, helicopter drop, print money, Fed, deflation, bailout
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
11/4/2008 10:15:00 AM
One of the top-selling Halloween costumes this year was a latex mask of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's bearded likeness. Seems rather fitting, considering -- The economy-saving capabilities of the Federal Reserve are an illusory façade. For some, such a statement runs a close second to blasphemy. I say, let the facts, NOT blind faith, speak.
Filed Under:
Federal Reserve, great depression, rate cut, monetary policy, Fed
Category:
Economy
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by
Alan Hall
9/5/2008 4:15:00 PM
...a recent Atlanta Journal Constitution headline: “Therapists helping builders cope during housing slump.” The article explained how “Every builder seems to know a colleague swamped in debt, and a few know friends in the business who have taken their lives.” A year ago, few imagined that smiling builders talking on cell phones in big trucks would soon be seeking emotional support on therapists’ couches.
Filed Under:
bailout, bailouts, banking crisis, Fannie Mae, Fed, Federal Reserve, Forecast, Forecasts, Freddie Mac, great depression, housing crisis, housing market, housing prices, housing slump
Category:
Cultural Trends
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/6/2008 8:45:00 PM
What an incredible rally in the EURUSD we've seen on June 5 and 6. On Tuesday, June 4, after Ben Bernanke said the Fed "is watching the dollar," the buck gained close to 200 pips against the euro. Wednesday's trading was very quiet, and it did seem like tables were indeed turning for the dollar. But then on Thursday…
Filed Under:
ben bernanke, Fed, us dollar, eurusd, forex, currency trading
Category:
Currencies
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by
Editorial Staff
5/16/2008 3:15:00 PM
Most people have begun to accept that the U.S. economy is in recession whether or not the National Bureau of Economic Research has labeled it a recession yet. If you, too, think that the economy is headed for hard times, the next question is, how do you prepare for it?
Filed Under:
recession, Paulson, Stocks, Mutual funds, Fed
Category:
Stocks
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by
Susan C. Walker
5/7/2008 5:30:00 PM
"And forecasting fed rate cuts isn’t all it's cracked up to be, or at least it doesn’t appear to warrant the countless hours of discussion devoted to it on financial television. As we’ve discussed numerous times in our newsletters, the Fed follows the market, not leads it."
Filed Under:
Fed rate cut history, interest rates, Fed
Category:
Interest Rates
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by
Editorial Staff
4/30/2008 2:15:00 PM
According to our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast's not-very-proprietary model for forecasting Fed rate cuts -- otherwise known as the spread between the Federal Funds rate and short-term Treasuries -- the Fed will lower rates again today. And as usual, Wall Street may well acknowledge the move by breaking out the party hats. But investors had better be careful,...
Filed Under:
Fed, Bernanke, Volcker, interest rates
Category:
Interest Rates
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by
Editorial Staff
3/18/2008 5:00:00 PM
The coming deflation needs to be swift enough to out-run the actions of the Fed and Congress. If it happens fast, they won’t be able to act quickly enough to turn the credit deflation into a currency inflation before the former trend has run its course. Take a good, long look at the chart. This might turn out to be the profile of the stock averages when the big capitulation hits….
Filed Under:
Fed, MBIA
Category:
Classic Prechter
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by
Robert Folsom
3/12/2008 5:15:00 PM
Amidst all the happy words and noises that followed yesterday's story that "Fed Offers $200 Billion Lifeline for Spurned Debt," most news accounts either failed to include or buried the truly relevant details. Looked at closely, the Fed's "Offer" of a "Lifeline" comes attached with the kind of terms you'd expect from a benevolent loan shark.
Filed Under:
$200 billion, AAA rating, AAA ratings, banking, Fed, Federal Reserve, subprime mortgages, Treasuries
Category:
Economy
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by
Editorial Staff
3/11/2008 2:30:00 PM
Bob Prechter almost wrote the script for the current show playing on Wall Street and around the world in his various writings for The Elliott Wave Theorist. For instance, a year and a half ago he wrote about how the Fed would prove to be impotent in the face of a serious credit deflation.
Filed Under:
ben bernanke, Fed
Category:
Classic Prechter
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Watch Bob Prechter's interview on CNBC Wednesday, Nov. 4. Bob discusses the current juncture, Conquer the Crash II and more.
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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.
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