Inflation? Disinflation? In Your Dreams
Round two of deflation is heading this way.

On October 1, the U.S Treasuries zoomed upward as the DJIA saw its first material decline in six months. In percentage terms, the Dow's decline was insignificant -- yet bonds had one of their best single-day rallies since the summer low. Why is this important? Here's why...

The Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged: Now What?
Or, an even better question: So what?

What an interesting day of trading we saw in stocks on Wednesday (Sept. 23.) On the same day, we had: 1. A single event -- the Fed's interest rate announcement; 2. The stock market's bullish -- and -- bearish "reaction" to it, and 3. Several news stories explaining why stocks rallied -- and -- declined after the event. One question remains: Where will stocks go from here?

3 BIG Reasons To Avoid Stocks

Here are 3 reasons why you should make sure that your investment capital is not invested “long” in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures, stock options or any other equity-based investment or speculation.

Deflating the Inflationists' Arguments

You can talk about inflation all you want, but Bob Prechter says it the best: "YOu can't beat deflation in a credit-based system."

June 24 FOMC Meeting: Can the Fed Defeat the Bear?

t's Federal Open Market Committee time again. And, even before the June 24 meeting adjourned, word-parsers were dissecting the "minutes" like a high school biology student with a frog. In short: While everyone with a pulse guesses at the meaning of Bernanke-speak, ALL of them hope his words give the stock market something to celebrate.

The Fed Does Not Lead the Bond Market, It FOLLOWS

U.S. Bond Market Stays One Step A-"Fed"

Long Wal-Mart, Short Liberty
When the government taxes one citizen on behalf of another, we are all diminished.

At some point, the burden of the U.S. national debt burden may result in a forced restructuring to avoid default. This restructuring will be on terms dictated to us by our creditors…one of whom is a communist regime. I wonder how agreeable those terms will be.

"Deflation Will Catch Them All Off Guard"
"The next [Federal Reserve] chairman will have his own era."

On this day of Ben Bernanke's testimony in Washington, consider this quote from Bob Prechter's November 2005 Elliott Wave Theorist: "Like the entrenched belief in continued inflation, there is a widespread expectation of smooth sailing under Bernanke. With virtually everyone prepared for either good times or severe inflation, bad times and deflation will catch them all off guard." More…

U.S. Stocks: A Chicken With Its Fed Cut Off?

On December 16, the Dow Jones Industrial Average supposedly soared more than 300 points after the Federal Reserve cut rates to the record low .25% to 0% range. On December 17, the stock market slid back into negative territory. Explanation? How's this: The market leads, not follows, the Fed...

Why The Fed Can't Print Our Way Out Of Deflation

"Big Ben Fires Up The Choppers," reveals a recent Forbes article. "Choppers" being the "helicopter" from which the Federal Reserve will drop bundles of printed money into the hands of the public, thus staving off deflation. Will it work? Find out today...

Higher Fed-ucation: Will Rate Cuts Rescue The U.S. Economy?

Banks Need Therapy, Too
But maybe they shouldn't count on the couch

...a recent Atlanta Journal Constitution headline: “Therapists helping builders cope during housing slump.” The article explained how “Every builder seems to know a colleague swamped in debt, and a few know friends in the business who have taken their lives.” A year ago, few imagined that smiling builders talking on cell phones in big trucks would soon be seeking emotional support on therapists’ couches.

Euro Vs. U.S. Dollar (Forex): Surprise, Surprise
When fundamentals get murky, "what's left is price pattern."

What an incredible rally in the EURUSD we've seen on June 5 and 6. On Tuesday, June 4, after Ben Bernanke said the Fed "is watching the dollar," the buck gained close to 200 pips against the euro. Wednesday's trading was very quiet, and it did seem like tables were indeed turning for the dollar. But then on Thursday…

3 Reasons Not To Speculate in Stocks …
… if the U.S. is headed for a deflationary depression

Most people have begun to accept that the U.S. economy is in recession whether or not the National Bureau of Economic Research has labeled it a recession yet. If you, too, think that the economy is headed for hard times, the next question is, how do you prepare for it?

Fed Rate Cut History – as Predictable as Spam in Your Inbox

"And forecasting fed rate cuts isn’t all it's cracked up to be, or at least it doesn’t appear to warrant the countless hours of discussion devoted to it on financial television. As we’ve discussed numerous times in our newsletters, the Fed follows the market, not leads it."

Today at the Fed: “Fixing” the Financial System or Creating a Monster?

According to our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast's not-very-proprietary model for forecasting Fed rate cuts -- otherwise known as the spread between the Federal Funds rate and short-term Treasuries -- the Fed will lower rates again today. And as usual, Wall Street may well acknowledge the move by breaking out the party hats. But investors had better be careful,...

Two Precursors of What Deflation Might Look Like

The coming deflation needs to be swift enough to out-run the actions of the Fed and Congress. If it happens fast, they won’t be able to act quickly enough to turn the credit deflation into a currency inflation before the former trend has run its course. Take a good, long look at the chart. This might turn out to be the profile of the stock averages when the big capitulation hits….

The Fed's "Influence" is "Nonexistent"
Is Anyone REALLY Surprised

Amidst all the happy words and noises that followed yesterday's story that "Fed Offers $200 Billion Lifeline for Spurned Debt," most news accounts either failed to include or buried the truly relevant details. Looked at closely, the Fed's "Offer" of a "Lifeline" comes attached with the kind of terms you'd expect from a benevolent loan shark.

The Herbert Hoover of the Coming Hard Times

Bob Prechter almost wrote the script for the current show playing on Wall Street and around the world in his various writings for The Elliott Wave Theorist. For instance, a year and a half ago he wrote about how the Fed would prove to be impotent in the face of a serious credit deflation.