By Bob Stokes
4/26/2012 4:45:00 PM
The stock market: one week it acts like Dr. Jekyll, the next week it's Mr. Hyde. What do we make of these dramatic fluctuations?...
Filed Under: Bear market, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, market crash, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, risk management, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET, volatility
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
1/30/2012 5:15:00 PM
Our Elliott wave analysis strongly suggests that the markets and economy are at rare historical junctures. Read what Robert Prechter recently said...
Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, deflation, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott wave, herding, history, market forecasts, Random Walk Theory, Robert Prechter, social mood
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
6/10/2011 4:45:00 PM
Let me share with you a price trendline technique called the "Triple Fan." Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy writes, "I am surprised at how often this tool ushers in significant moves." He shows the "Triple Fan" in the price chart of...
Filed Under: coffee futures, Daily Futures Junctures, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Fibonacci, futures trading, Jeffrey Kennedy, Random Walk Theory, successful traders, technical analysis, technical indicators, Traders, trendlines
Category: Commodities
Earnings Data: Benchmark in Sheep's Clothing
A stunning chart from Bob Prechter's April Theorist shows how earnings data is not a benchmark at all
By Nico Isaac
5/16/2011 6:00:00 PM
In the rough seas of financial forecasting, the mainstream "captains" have always relied on certain time-honored tools for navigation: Breaking news, GDP figures, political scandals, weather patterns, and so on. But of all the measurements, there is one gauge widely considered to be the "North Star" of financial prognostication -- that ever-fixed mark in the economic sky that always points to the "true" future performance of major stock averages. And that gauge is earnings.
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Theorist, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, unemployment
Category: Stocks
Stocks Rally On the News of Bin Laden's Death, You Say? It's Not That Simple
Interest rates, oil prices, trade balances, corporate earnings and GDP: None of them seem to be important, or even relevant, to explaining stock price changes
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/2/2011 5:30:00 PM
MarketWatch.com ran an interesting story on May 2 that quoted from a research paper which found "little evidence that non-economics events have a big effect on the stock market." Here at EWI, we go one step further and say the following: Economic events have little impact on the stock market, too. Don't believe us? See this chart.
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, deficit, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Nico Isaac
4/28/2011 9:30:00 AM
The Efficient Market Hypothesis model of financial markets claims that investors make "rationally-based" decisions to maximize the utility of their invested dollar. In other words, when stocks fall, investors buy more of them, and when stocks rise, investors buy less, says the EMH. This, however, is not the case.
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter, Robert Prechter, sentiment
Category: U.S. Economy
By Nico Isaac
4/25/2011 5:15:00 PM
How often did you hear the phrase "Rational Bubble" used in 2006 and early 2007, to describe the speculative fever in stock prices, credit, and home values? The phrase was consistent with the EMH, which said that because the bubble was born of "rational" risk-taking, its undoing would be gradual. The euphoria would be tamed by a "healthy correction" (or "soft landing"), and ultimately a "return to normalcy."
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, credit crisis, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Theorist, Elliott Wave trading, great depression, Robert Prechter
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
4/21/2011 5:30:00 PM
Aren't investors consciously taking on more risk by "deciding that the gamble of buying high--to sell even higher--is worth it?" Prechter's answer to this question will likely surprise you. You'll never hear the phrase "risk-appetite" in the same way again...
Filed Under: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), herding, investor psychology, Robert Prechter, sentiment, socionomics
Category: Stocks
(Audio) Twitter Mood Predicts the Stock Market
Indiana University Researchers Bollen and Mao to discuss their findings at the New Horizons Summit
By Jill Noble
3/24/2011 4:45:00 PM
Neither academic was aware of socionomic theory when they began their Twitter mood experiment. Now, their groundbreaking work in computational social science -- "Twitter mood predicts the stock market" -- is under negotiation to be tested in real time (in a $40M hedge fund operated by Derwent Capital Markets).
Filed Under: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Robert Prechter, social mood, socionomics
Category: Socionomics
By Nico Isaac
3/16/2011 11:15:00 AM
On March 11, one of the tragic events we talked about above took place when Japan's eastern coast was struck down by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, the biggest in the country's history. Japans' NIKKEI 225 stock index has suffered a 3000-point collapse since the catastrophe. At first glance, that fits the "news-moves-markets" theory perfectly. But let's take another look. Was there anything about the NIKKEI's Elliott wave pattern that suggested a decline before the earthquake? Yes.
Filed Under: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, Nikkei, Robert Prechter, Robert Prechter
Category: Asian Markets
Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths, Part VIII
The world's foremost Elliott wave practitioner tests economists' "Claim #7: ''Peace is bullish for stocks'” -- and brings you another surprising conclusion.
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/27/2010 1:45:00 PM
This is Part VIII of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president uses two charts to dispel another investment myth: that times of peace are bullish for stocks.
Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, fundamental analysis, Random Walk Theory, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, social mood, socionomics
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/22/2010 10:30:00 AM
This is Part VII of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president tests economists' "Claim #6: 'Wars are bullish/bearish for stock prices” -- and shows you four charts that confidently disprove this myth.
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, fundamental analysis, Robert Prechter, Random Walk Theory, social mood, socionomics
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/20/2010 12:30:00 PM
This is Part VI of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president examines economists' “Claim #5: 'GDP drives stock prices'” -- and brings you another eye-opening conclusion.
Filed Under: crude oil, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, fundamental analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths, Part IV
The world's foremost Elliott wave practitioner tests economists' "Claim #3: 'Expanding U.S. trade deficit is bad for economy and bearish for stock prices.'”
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/13/2010 11:15:00 AM
This is Part IV of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president explains why traditional financial models failed -- and why they are doomed to fail again (and again). Here, the world's foremost Elliott wave practitioner tests economists' "Claim #3: 'Expanding U.S. trade deficit is bad for economy and bearish for stock prices.'”
Filed Under: buy and hold, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, Robert Prechter, socionomics
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/6/2010 11:30:00 AM
This is Part II of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president explains why traditional financial models failed in the 2007-2009 financial crisis -- and why are they doomed to fail again (and again). Here, Prechter tests "Claim #1: 'Interest rates drive stock prices.'"
Filed Under: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, Random Walk Theory, Robert Prechter, socionomics
Category: Stocks
Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths, Part I
After the grand failure of modern financial theory in 2007-2009, a better one is proposed by the world's foremost Elliott wave analysis practitioner
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/3/2010 11:00:00 AM
You may remember that in 2008-2009, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression was ravaging stocks, real estate and commodities, many called into question traditional economic models -- because they did little to warn us of the approaching doomsday. So, today, we are starting a new series: "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president gives detailed explanation of why the traditional financial models failed -- and, very importantly, why they are doomed to fail again (and again). Here is Part I...
Filed Under: earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, Random Walk Theory, Robert Prechter, socionomics, technical analysis, unemployment
Category: Stocks
By Nico Isaac
8/18/2010 10:30:00 AM
Of all the belief systems of Wall Street, few can claim the devoted following of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the idea that stock prices adhere to the same laws of supply-and-demand that govern retail products. Once coined the theoretical "Parthenon" of economics, this notion has consistently endured the test of time ----- until now. Academics and advisors across the globe are currently exposing crack after crack in the "Efficient" model so deep as to bring the entire theory crashing to the ground.
Filed Under: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, Robert Prechter
Category: U.S. Economy
Financial Markets: Inefficient, Patterned, Predictable
We owe the remarkable discovery of the Elliott Wave Principle to Ralph Nelson Elliott, born on July 28, 1871.
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/26/2010 6:00:00 PM
The Elliott Wave Principle's main claim -- and the hardest one to swallow -- is that mass investor behavior is not random, but patterned. And since it's patterned, it is also predictable. This assertion goes against most economic theories, which claim precisely the opposite: that markets are random and unpredictable. The dominant theory among these is the Efficient Market Hypothesis...
This assertion goes against most economic theories, which claim precisely the opposite: that markets are random and unpredictable. The dominant theory among these is the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Filed Under: Elliott Wave Principle, Ralph Nelson Elliott, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
Category: Stocks
By Nico Isaac
5/27/2010 3:30:00 PM
How many of you woke up this morning with this thought in your head: I hope a slew of positive news data is released today so my blue-chip shares go up. There's just one problem with this approach; namely, it doesn't work. This is the revelation of Club EWI's newest complimentary Crash Course Video, titled "Why Use The Wave Principle."
Filed Under: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle
Category: Stocks
By Robert Folsom
5/14/2010 5:00:00 PM
I can't provide a "visual" that makes as lasting an impression as those iconic images. Yet I do have one that is powerful. It's relevant to our time. It challenges a long-held orthodoxy. And it tells a story that should indeed change or help make up the minds of individuals who think for themselves...
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave Principle, Bear market, Random Walk Theory, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
Category: Stocks