Consumer Confidence Hits a 6-Year High: Bullish for Stocks?
Why, of course it is! But please read on to understand why it's a trick question.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/17/2013 4:15:00 PM

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, bull market, buy and hold, consumer confidence, consumer price index, consumer spending, Elliott wave, market forecasts, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Stocks

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Higher Housing Prices: Prepare for the Flop to Follow the Flip
Will real estate history repeat?

By Bob Stokes
5/10/2013 5:30:00 PM

The National Association of Realtors reports that home prices are up 11.6% year over year. And that has a new surge of house flippers into the real estate market. If the housing market is poised for another dramatic downturn, almost no one sees it coming.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, housing prices, market crash

Category: U.S. Economy

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Triple Top: The S&P 500 Goes Nowhere for 13 Years
Something's got to give, and it likely will.

By Bob Stokes
4/19/2013 4:45:00 PM

Technical analysts describe a triple top formation as a textbook "reversal" pattern. After the third peak, the downward price trend that follows may be steep and break below the two prior lows. If that break occurs, prices could descend into free-fall territory. In his March 2013 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter refers to "the 13-year triple top ... from 2000 to 2013." What's more, this pattern does not stand alone.

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, Elliott Wave Theorist, market crash, S&P 500, technical analysis

Category: Stocks

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Bears Continue to Take a Giant Bite Out of Apple
Our charts reveal why professional analysts never saw the 40% freefall in Apple shares coming.

By Nico Isaac
4/18/2013 5:30:00 PM

Last September, with Apple Inc. shares soaring into the outergalactic $700 region, the mainstream experts tightened their grip on the upside. But instead of going to the moon, AAPL crashed back to earth in a 40% selloff to the 16-month lows we see today. One question remains: How could the professional analysts have gotten it so wrong?

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, mutual funds, Robert Prechter

Category: Asian Markets

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Raise Your Hand if You Believe Earnings Drive Stock Prices
Now, a mountain of evidence proves why this long-accepted belief is sorely misguided

By Nico Isaac
4/9/2013 6:00:00 PM

April is national Finanical Literacy month. With that in mind, we ask one simple true or false question: Do earnings drive stock prices? Wall Street and the financial media think the answer is as obvious as the blue sky on a cloudless day. In fact, when the 2013 corporate earnings season kicked off on April 8, the news was flooded with stories confirming the supreme role of earnings in market trends.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, earnings, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, market myths, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, U.S. STOCK MARKET, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

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A Fundamental Lesson from Italy's Recent Political Deadlock
European Financial Forecast uses Elliott wave analysis -- not election results -- to identify the near-term stock index trends on the Continent.

By Nico Isaac
2/27/2013 5:30:00 PM

On Feb. 26, Italy's much-anticipated Parliamentary Election ended in an impasse, when dark horse candidate/comedian Beppe Grillo earned enough votes to prevent the two leading parties from gaining a majority. In the immediate aftermath of the election, European stock markets took a synchronized leap south in single-day declines from 1.5% to 5%. On that day, the mainstream experts were unanimous: Italy's election outcome flat out bearish...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, fundamental analysis, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, social mood

Category: European Markets

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The February 2013 Theorist: Like a Four-Course Epic Meal
When Bob Prechter wants something to happen, a lot gets done in a little time

By Robert Folsom
2/25/2013 4:30:00 PM

If the February 2013 Theorist was a fine dining experience, it would be a four-course epic – including those moments at the table after you finish and reflect on what a great meal it was. Discover why the latest Theorist is twice the size and published ahead of schedule.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, stock indexes, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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Apple Inc's Selloff Shows How the Herd Waits For No Man
Think the professionals were separate from the herd? These charts will make you think again

By Nico Isaac
2/12/2013 6:30:00 PM

Unless your name is Snow White and you've been in a deep sleep for months, you know that the share price of tech behemoth Apple Inc. has fallen hard. Talk about poison fruit: Since hitting an all-time high in September 2012, Apple stock prices (AAPL) have rotted to a one-year low, alongside flat earnings, and falling profit margins to levels not seen since the 2007 finanical crisis. And, according to recent New York Times article, many Apple shareholders were snared by the bearish trap in the one way you wouldn't expect -- by following the mainstream experts.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, fundamental analysis, herding, Robert Prechter, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

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A Study of Financial Bubbles Reveals a Remarkable Pattern
Financial manias end below where they started

By Bob Stokes
2/11/2013 4:15:00 PM

The tricky thing about financial bubbles is, even the smartest investors don't know they're in one until it bursts. Isaac Newton was a rare genius as a scientist, yet he decided to invest in the South Sea Bubble (1719-1722) just before it burst. Bob Prechter studied major financial bubbles going back to the year 1600 and made a remarkable observation which may be relevant today.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bob Prechter, conquer the crash, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, market crash, sentiment, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks

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The Key Factor That Leads Directly to an Economic Depression
Stock market action leads the economy

By Bob Stokes
2/7/2013 4:15:00 PM

Some argue that trends like mounting debt and an ever-widening deficit will trigger a depression. Others say it can happen if the Federal Reserve aggressively raises rates. Then again, the culprit might be chronically high unemployment or plunging home prices. In truth, however, the correct answer is ...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, deficit, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, Interest Rates, recession, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy

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Little to Show for the $3 Trillion Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
The U.S. central bank's bond-buying spree has merely kept the economy running in place

By Bob Stokes
2/5/2013 5:30:00 PM

The Federal Reserve's aggressive bond buying has caused the central bank's balance sheet to balloon to $3 trillion for the first time. But for all of its quantitative easing initiatives, the economy remains fragile. Three economic professionals share a sobering outlook for the economy that's similar to the warnings in the second edition of Conquer the Crash.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, central banks, CNBC, conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Margin Debt is Fueling the Market Rally
Investors ignore the sign posts at their peril

By Bob Stokes
2/1/2013 3:00:00 PM

Margin debt is fueling the market rally, and the investors behind the wheel have no fear. Bob Prechter warns about this hazardous combination, and issues a bold stock market forecast for the next 3-1/2 years. Be aware that investors may face the most significant market juncture of the past three centuries.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, debt, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, investor psychology, market forecasts, sentiment, VIX

Category: Stocks

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U.S. Stocks: Today's Market Sentiment Starkly Contrasts 2009's
How extreme sentiment can signal a trend ready for change

By Bob Stokes
1/24/2013 5:30:00 PM

In March 2009, stock prices were at a 12-year low, and you'd have needed to search far and wide to find someone calling for a rebound.  Most investors feared that more of the same was ahead. Instead, stocks rallied. Investor sentiment is now at the opposite extreme.

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, market forecasts, sentiment, VIX

Category: Stocks

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Economic Reality Takes a Back Seat to Investor Irrationality
Following the investment crowd can be damaging to your portfolio

By Bob Stokes
1/18/2013 5:15:00 PM

The United States faces what a former Treasury Secretary calls a "debt bomb." Yet, investors continue to plow money into risk-assets, like stocks and junk bonds. Learn what Bob Prechter says about irrational investment behavior and its likely outcome.

Filed Under: bloomberg, Bob Prechter, CNBC, debt crisis, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, junk bonds, municipal bonds, sentiment, stock indexes, Treasury bonds

Category: U.S. Economy

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Chaos and the Stock Market May Be Set to Collide
Contemplate what's ahead for the markets BEFORE it happens

By Bob Stokes
1/10/2013 12:45:00 PM

To err is human. This truism is conspicuously true of financial markets -- especially when human error meets the limits of modern technology. Bob Prechter elaborates:

"Trading stocks, options and futures could be extremely problematic during ..."

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, conquer the crash, Elliott wave, history, liquidity, market crash, market forecasts, risk management, Traders, trading lessons, U.S. STOCK MARKET, VIX, volatility, volume

Category: Stocks

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Why Conventional Stock Analysts Stumble When They Look to the Economy

By Bob Stokes
1/9/2013 5:00:00 PM

It's futile to use the jobless number, gross domestic product, home sales, factory orders, corporate earnings, consumer spending -- or any other economic indicator -- to forecast stocks. Learn why.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, earnings, economic indicators, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), home sales, housing prices, market forecasts, social mood, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy

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Is It Safe to "Buy the Dip"?
History shows how NASDAQ investors lost their shirts

By Bob Stokes
1/8/2013 4:45:00 PM

Buying stocks simply because prices are lower can be perilous. Consider a historical chart and the accompanying commentary.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, investment strategy, Nasdaq Composite, sentiment

Category: Stocks

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Why "Predicting the Present" Is Not a Forecast
Stock market trend changes are almost always unexpected.

By Bob Stokes
1/7/2013 7:00:00 PM

Most mainstream market forecasts boil down to trend extrapolation. By definition, a forecast describes the future. But all too often, people who try to describe the future do little more than "predict the present." Recent bullish 2013 forecasts from Wall Street may have been voiced on the verge of a major trend change.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Bob Prechter, Citigroup, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Goldman Sachs, herding, history, investor psychology, long-term trend, market crash, market forecasts, sentiment, stock indexes, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

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A Surprising Look Inside America's Pay Envelopes
A downward trend in real U.S. average hourly earnings has just started

By Bob Stokes
12/20/2012 5:30:00 PM

Bob Prechter wrote a book on how to prepare for the unfolding deflationary trend. Conquer the Crash is now in its second edition, and is even more applicable now than when it was first published. In the months ahead, millions of workers will likely see shrinking wages. Many will not even receive a paycheck. Read what Prechter wrote.
 

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, inflation, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy

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U.S. Stocks: "The Only Game in Town for Investors"?
Low interest rates don't translate into high stock prices

By Bob Stokes
12/19/2012 5:30:00 PM

The central bank wants people to invest in risk-assets like stocks, so the market will go up and make people feel wealthier. Then investors will spend more and stimulate the economy. Maybe the Fed's grand plan will work. Then again, maybe it won't.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, Interest Rates, investment strategy, investor psychology, long-term trend, sentiment, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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