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GDP Up, DJIA Down: What Happened?
Our collective emotions play a huge role in our investment decisions.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/1/2010 4:15:00 PM

Last Friday (January 29) was a great day to watch the stock market and compare the price action against the explanations from analysts. Throughout the day, investors and analysts simply focused on the news stories that best fit that hour in the market... This seems like a flawed approach, and here's why.

Filed Under: GDP, Bernanke, DJIA, technology earnings, u.s. dollar, random walk
Category: Stocks


Bernanke's Burn Notice -- Why Now?

by Susan C. Walker
1/22/2010 3:15:00 PM

Like a spy who gets a burn notice (as depicted in USA Network's hit series, Burn Notice), suddenly he lost his support. No one trusts him anymore. Why the sudden turnaround in his fortunes?

Filed Under: Bernanke, Federal Reserve, burn notice
Category: Classic Prechter


U.S. Dollar "Flies": A Blip or Start of Something Big?
Bernanke wants to ensure strong dollar; Trichet concurs. What do Elliott wave patterns say?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/17/2009 2:30:00 PM

The Fed's chairman Bernanke said on Monday they were watching currencies markets to "help ensure that the dollar is strong"; the ECB's Trichet said that Bernanke's statement was "very important." Apparently, forex traders interpreted both comments as bullish for the dollar... but if you've been watching the EUR/USD's Elliott wave patterns, you didn't have to wait for the morning news to tell you that. See this chart...

Filed Under: Bernanke, Trichet, u.s. dollar, euro, forex, foreign exchange, Currencies
Category: Currencies


No Slave To Fashion
It's the lack of monetary enforcement that will likely save Europe from overspending.

by Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
11/3/2009 1:00:00 PM

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has proven throughout this financial crisis that he is his own man when it comes to navigating the euro-land banking system through the deflation and debt deleveraging storm. And will likely save Europe from overspending.

Filed Under: interest rates, Bernanke, Trichet, deflation, monetary policy, quantitative easing, bailouts
Category: European Markets


Forex: Don't Trust Your Trading to Headlines
A reliable currency market indicator doesn't change with the wind.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/25/2009 4:30:00 PM
"Fundamental" indicators change with the wind because they apply only to what has already happened. It's easy to "explain" past market action -- try predicting it instead. With Elliott wave analysis, you can. As this chart shows, there is a potentially major opportunity developing in the U.S. dollar right now...
Filed Under: Currencies, forex, u.s. dollar, euro, usd, Bernanke
Category: Currencies


Deflation: Now a European Problem, Too
Despite the Fed’s expansive balance sheet, it's not inflation U.S and Europe need to worry about.

by Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
6/2/2009 1:00:00 PM

The winds of deflation are blowing in Europe, and Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, is at the helm of the economic ship, desperately hoping to avoid the shoals of policy error. Trichet does not need a GPS unit or navigational charts to see the rocks, because the wreck of the Federal Reserve lies just ahead and is plain enough to see. 

Filed Under: Trichet, ECB, deflation, Federal Reserve, Bernanke, U.S. Treasuries, bund
Category: Economy


G20 Summit: Are Great Expectations Justified?
Government interventions only work when they are aligned with the mood of the crowd.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/31/2009 11:45:00 AM
On April 2 in London, the leaders of the Group of 20 industrial nations will meet to decide what to do about the financial crisis. This summer the crisis will be two years old; the G20 believes something finally must be done to end it once and for all. Can they?
Filed Under: g20 summit, inflation, deflation, Bernanke, 1929
Category: Stocks


"Deflation Will Catch Them All Off Guard"
"The next [Federal Reserve] chairman will have his own era."

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/24/2009 5:00:00 PM

On this day of Ben Bernanke's testimony in Washington, consider this quote from Bob Prechter's November 2005 Elliott Wave Theorist: "Like the entrenched belief in continued inflation, there is a widespread expectation of smooth sailing under Bernanke. With virtually everyone prepared for either good times or severe inflation, bad times and deflation will catch them all off guard." More…

Filed Under: Bernanke, Fed, Federal Reserve, credit, deflation, home prices
Category: Economy


Why Choose Keynes Over Friedman?
Let’s give quantitative monetary policy another chance.

by Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
12/22/2008 3:00:00 PM

With trillions of dollars committed to financial rescues, it seems that we now have decided that elected officials in Congress are superior arbiters of economic rehabilitation. Are we really to think that a polarized group of lawyers, doctors and who-knows-what-they-did-before will be prudent in their spending? Given the choice of the lesser of two evils, I will take Bernanke’s resume against anyone's in Congress.

Filed Under: Keynes, Milton friedman, monetary policy, Bernanke, new deal, irrational exuberance
Category: Economy


Last-Minute Finance Present for Yourself

by Susan C. Walker
12/19/2008 2:45:00 PM

Learn more about the current economy and Bob Prechter's Conquer the Crash in these holiday couplets.

Filed Under: Walmart, Connick, Bernanke, option ARMs, subprimes, Bernie Madoff
Category: Economy


Update: Today is Not Like 1929! No, It's Worse

by Susan C. Walker
12/2/2008 12:45:00 PM

Ben Bernanke says that today's current economic and financial woes don't compare with the Great Depression in the late 1920s and 1930s. Too bad he can't see what Bob Prechter sees – that today's problems are actually worse.

Filed Under: Bernanke, great depression, recession, stock crash, bailout
Category: Classic Prechter


Euro Vs. Dollar: $1.30 and Counting…Down?
You can explain the forex market using "fundamentals," but can you predict it?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/21/2008 9:00:00 PM
Why is the dollar gaining? Apparently, hedge funds were "returning to cash in anticipation of massive investor withdrawals." Plus, said analysts, Ben Bernanke's new proposal for another U.S. economic stimulus package added optimism to the dollar's future. Every time I read reports like these, I think of how well they explain the market action – and yet how utterly useless they are for a forex trader. Let me ask you a question...
Filed Under: Euro dollar exchange rate, eurusd, forex, Bernanke
Category: Currencies


EURUSD (Forex): What Do You Do When Bearish News Turns "Bullish"?
How could a clearly bearish report be interpreted as bullish news?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/16/2008 9:15:00 PM
A little after 5 AM Eastern (New York) time on Tuesday, July 15, the euro hit a new all-time high against the U.S. dollar: just under $1.6040. Markets move for a reason, goes the conventional wisdom, and it's doubly true when it comes to major moves like that. Interestingly, though, the EURUSD rallied to the new high after an economic report showed that "investor sentiment in Europe's largest economy, Germany, is at a record low." How come? Here's an Elliott wave take on it.
Filed Under: eurusd, forex, Germany, investor sentiment, Bernanke, tichet, forex trading
Category: Currencies


Today at the Fed: “Fixing” the Financial System or Creating a Monster?

by Editorial Staff
4/30/2008 2:15:00 PM

According to our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast's not-very-proprietary model for forecasting Fed rate cuts -- otherwise known as the spread between the Federal Funds rate and short-term Treasuries -- the Fed will lower rates again today. And as usual, Wall Street may well acknowledge the move by breaking out the party hats. But investors had better be careful,...

Filed Under: Fed, Bernanke, Volcker, interest rates
Category: Interest Rates


The Generals Survey their Battlefields: Iraq and the U.S. Economy

by Susan C. Walker
4/8/2008 5:15:00 PM

General David Petraeus and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke are both dealing with Gordian knot problems -- one on the war front and the other on the economic front, And George Soros has some of his own thoughts on the subject of the financial system turned into Godzilla.

Filed Under: recession, Soros, Petraeus, Bernanke, monetary policy, financial markets
Category: Economy


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.