"Latter-Day Gatsbys" Push Hamptons Home Rental Prices Toward $1 Million
Today's financial trend comes "once in centuries."

By Bob Stokes
5/28/2013 5:00:00 PM

Some economic commentators say the housing market has bottomed, and the recent rise in residential real estate market activity is a sign of the turnaround. But the renewed strength in real estate is no surprise. Financial history shows that real estate prices tend to trend more-less with the stock market. The question is: Where are we in the trend of financial assets? Consider Robert Prechter's perspective ...

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, Bank of England, CNBC, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, history, home sales, housing prices, market forecasts, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy

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Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929
IPOs are set to raise the most money since 2007.

By Bob Stokes
5/13/2013 5:00:00 PM

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"?  One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, investor psychology, risk appetite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks

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How an Instinct Can Be Financially Dangerous
Beware of what accompanies market tops.

By Bob Stokes
5/9/2013 4:45:00 PM

Teenagers dress and talk alike. This natural tendency to conform carries into adulthood. Nowhere is the human tendency to conform more pronounced than in financial markets. Investors instinctively adopt the market views of people they perceive to be "in the know." Learn why this instinct can be financially dangerous.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Classic Prechter

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The Housing Recovery Rests on an Unstable Foundation
Yale's Robert Shiller says the recent rebound in home prices is "artificial"

By Bob Stokes
3/28/2013 5:30:00 PM

The housing market has gone from financial rubble to what some analysts describe as another bubble. It's true that home prices are still nearly 30% below their mid-2000s peak. Yet the recent surge has Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index concerned. Learn why.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, CNBC, commercial real estate, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, foreclosures, great depression, history, home sales, housing prices, quantitative easing, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Every Big Economic Collapse Has a First Domino
When will the dominoes begin to tumble, or has it already begun?

By Bob Stokes
3/26/2013 4:45:00 PM

Financial history shows that every major credit boom is followed by a credit bust. The latest round of financial headlines remind us that unsustainable debt is crippling Europe. In the U.S., heavy debt burdens have put local and state governments in deep financial trouble. Federal debt rapidly approaches $17 trillion. What will be the first financial domino to fall?

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Ben Bernanke, bloomberg, central banks, debt, economic indicators, Elliott wave, European debt crisis, gross domestic product (GDP), Interest Rates, monetary policy, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, soverign debt crisis, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Two Big Names Give 'Thumbs Up' to the Stock Market
Plus, a former bear switches camps

By Bob Stokes
3/20/2013 4:45:00 PM

When it comes to reaching a large audience, few voices can compete with the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, or with the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve. One of each has recently given their blessing to the stock market. Many investors will be assured by these bullish comments from well-known people. Yet it's fair to ask whether today's extreme bullish market sentiment -- after a four-year rally -- should perhaps startle market participants. Indeed, the evidence suggests that this juncture in the financial markets is so rare that no living market participant has ever experienced a time like it.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, history, investor psychology, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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A Real-Time Montage of a Developing Global Deflation
Is the global economy headed for the German economic experience of 1928-1932?

By Bob Stokes
3/1/2013 5:45:00 PM

There's mounting evidence that deflationary forces are at work in the global economy. However, many financial observers remain focused on elevated equity prices and inflation. EWI's Global Market Perspective points to Germany's 1929-1932 economic experience as an example of what global economies could soon face. Get the full real-time economic story as it unfolds in the Asian-Pacific, Europe and the United States.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bank of Japan, CNBC, conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, eurozone, inflation, recession, Walmart

Category: Global Markets

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Global Deflation: Protect Your Wealth from What the Majority Do Not Expect
Shield your wealth before trusted facilities close their doors

By Bob Stokes
2/15/2013 4:15:00 PM

Last month the economy of the United States unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Deflationary forces are affecting more than just the American markets. In fact, they're even stronger across the pond. The euro zone's accelerating economic contraction should serve as a warning sign to anyone who believes the global economy is on the road to recovery. Opportunities to protect your wealth will close shut once a deflationary trend is well underway. Learn how to access safe storage facilities for your assets.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, currency, deflation, European debt crisis, eurozone, great depression, gross domestic product (GDP), history, Robert Prechter, safe haven, Sovereign Debt

Category: Global Markets

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A Study of Financial Bubbles Reveals a Remarkable Pattern
Financial manias end below where they started

By Bob Stokes
2/11/2013 4:15:00 PM

The tricky thing about financial bubbles is, even the smartest investors don't know they're in one until it bursts. Isaac Newton was a rare genius as a scientist, yet he decided to invest in the South Sea Bubble (1719-1722) just before it burst. Bob Prechter studied major financial bubbles going back to the year 1600 and made a remarkable observation which may be relevant today.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bob Prechter, conquer the crash, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, market crash, sentiment, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks

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Stock Market Lesson: "Institutional Investors Say a Crash Can't Happen"
Even professional investors can be radically wrong

By Bob Stokes
2/4/2013 4:45:00 PM

Even those who head large financial institutions can be way off the mark with financial assessments. That was the case around the 1929 stock market top and other historical market milestones. Market history may repeat as prominent Wall Street figures sing from the same songbook. Learn why it's an important time to be an independent-minded investor.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market crash, market forecasts, mutual funds, risk management, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

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A Coy Public Suddenly Gets Cozy with Stocks
The last burst of market optimism?

By Bob Stokes
1/30/2013 4:00:00 PM

The public is jumping into stocks after being reluctant to do so for most of the uptrend since March 2009. A bullish sign or a red flag? Well, consider that investors were also bullish on Oct. 9, 2007, just before the Dow's all-time closing high. Just days earlier (the third week of September 2007), equity fund inflows hit an all-time record of $23 billion. See the chart.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, long-term trend, market forecasts, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks

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Luxury Spending: This Financial Indicator is a Real Masterpiece
Elliott wave analysis of the art market foretells social and economic change

By Bob Stokes
1/15/2013 5:30:00 PM

Luxury seekers push prices higher when they agree that a given commodity is valuable. The most over-the-top spending occurs near market tops. That's what happened in the 1630s at the height of Tulip Mania, the stock market top of 1929 and more recent speculative fever tops. Learn what current prices of luxury items signal about the financial future.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, consumer spending, economic indicators, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, wisdom of crowds

Category: U.S. Economy

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Why "Predicting the Present" Is Not a Forecast
Stock market trend changes are almost always unexpected.

By Bob Stokes
1/7/2013 7:00:00 PM

Most mainstream market forecasts boil down to trend extrapolation. By definition, a forecast describes the future. But all too often, people who try to describe the future do little more than "predict the present." Recent bullish 2013 forecasts from Wall Street may have been voiced on the verge of a major trend change.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Bob Prechter, Citigroup, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Goldman Sachs, herding, history, investor psychology, long-term trend, market crash, market forecasts, sentiment, stock indexes, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

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6 Government "Fixes" That Came Too Late to Matter
Government, the ultimate crowd, is powerless to fix what's already occurred – but they always try.

By Bob Stokes
12/27/2012 12:30:00 PM

Robert Prechter says a huge price will be paid for excessive borrowing and spending. And that price is summed up in one word: deflation. Read what EWI subscribers are reading now about what could turn out to be the most severe economic contraction in American history and why the government is powerless to stop it.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, conquer the crash, debt, deficit, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, history, Robert Prechter, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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The Kiss of Death for the Current Market Trend
Investors have decreased their use of leverage

By Bob Stokes
11/30/2012 4:45:00 PM

Entire bull markets can be heavily sustained by leverage. And when leverage contracts, that's usually a sign that the upward market trend is in trouble. With that in mind, take a look at a chart. 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, bull market, Elliott wave, history, momentum, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), risk appetite, volume

Category: Stocks

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The Current Market Trend is a Stock Picker's Nightmare
Stocks are moving in sync

By Bob Stokes
11/16/2012 3:00:00 PM

Most investors would do well to pick the right stocks during a rising market, much less a slumping one when, say, about 75% of stocks follow the main indexes. Even so, some investors will try to figure out which stocks belong to the winning 25%. However, be aware that the broad market may be entering a period when falling stocks outnumber gainers by an even wider margin.
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, Bear market, deflation, Elliott Wave Theorist, market forecasts, S&P 500

Category: Stocks

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Economy on the Brink: Why Mitt Romney May Eventually Be Glad He Lost
Romney won't have to be the next Herbert Hoover

By Bob Stokes
11/9/2012 5:45:00 PM

In discussing the years ahead, Prechter said that whoever is President will turn into "an outsized version of Herbert Hoover." If the economic trend unfolds in a way that EWI expects, Romney may eventually win, so to speak, by losing.
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, conquer the crash, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, Robert Prechter

Category: U.S. Economy

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The Psychology of Market Tops: "Big Investors Say They Knew Better Than to Overstay"
Market psychology can turn on a dime

By Bob Stokes
10/19/2012 4:15:00 PM

Given the time it takes a financial market to reach a price peak, one might think the decline would be just as gradual. But when fear strikes, investors flee like gazelles at the sight of a lion. Beware of the next...

 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bear market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Principle, investor psychology, market crash, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, Nikkei, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks

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In 1929, Deflation Started in Europe Before Overtaking the U.S.
What Happens in Europe Will Not Stay in Europe

By Bob Stokes
10/9/2012 5:45:00 PM

An economic downturn in one major area of the globe is likely to affect another. In fact, even during the Great Depression (long before the phrase "global economy"), Europe was exporting to America. But one historic export was not the kind that the U.S. welcomed.
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, debt, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), history, soverign debt crisis, world central banks

Category: U.S. Economy

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The Psychology of a Market Top: How Bernard Baruch Kept His Millions
Market psychology is at a historic inflection point

By Bob Stokes
10/5/2012 2:30:00 PM

Legendary investor Bernard Baruch described the months before the 1929 crash, and explained why he knew it was time to sell. Learn why the psychology that produces a historic market turn may be at work now. 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market forecasts, U.S. STOCK MARKET, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks

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