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by
Jason Farkas
1/13/2010 5:30:00 PM
One measure of investor unease, the junk bond-to-Treasury spread, which soared during the height of the crisis, has fallen more than 75% from its high, indicating that investors are confident about corporate health. But junk bond investors aren't always the best judges of risk -- take a look at this chart.
Filed Under:
Junk bonds, High Yield Corporate Bond, High Yield Bond Index, junk bond-to-Treasury spread, delinquencies
Category:
Economy
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Jason Farkas
1/6/2010 6:45:00 PM
Imagine the disappointment the Japanese faced in the 1990s. Their 1980s boom created enough wealth to buy landmarks like Rockefeller Center and Pebble Beach. But the 1990s turned inflation into deflation. Stimulus packages and bailouts failed to prop up Japan's property market and to prevent the deflationary collapse. Now the U.S. government is trying to do the same thing -- and here's why they are likely to fail.
Filed Under:
inflation, deflation, prechter, Japan, interest rates, quantitative easing, budget deficit
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
1/4/2010 5:30:00 PM
In the realm of market psychology, there's a big difference between optimism and extreme optimism. The first is seeing the glass half full. The second is seeing the glass half full deep in the heart of a bone-dry desert. In finance, it's what we call "Buying the Dip" mentality -- when all outcomes, even losses, are cause for celebration...
Filed Under:
us stocks, bull market, recovery, lost decade
Category:
Economy
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by
Jason Farkas
12/28/2009 6:15:00 PM
Don’t be fooled into thinking the Great Recession is over because of the recent 3.5% gain in third-quarter GDP. The only reason for the uptick was the government’s contribution. Because the government’s size has increased so dramatically since 2000, the U.S. is now closer to socialism than capitalism. And here's what that could mean for the U.S. economy.
Filed Under:
Great Recession, capitalism, socialism, GDP, bob prechter, elliott wave, Cash for Clunkers, tax credit home buyers, Austrian School of economics
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
12/23/2009 3:15:00 PM
This Holiday season, all hopes are pinned on the bearded man in the fancy suit AND his faithful team of helpers to swoop down and deliver the one gift that is on everyone's wish list: A sustained economic recovery. And no, I'm not talking about sled-driving Santa, but rather Fed-driving Ben Bernanke.
Filed Under:
Federal Reserve, ben bernanke, Fed, interest rates, rates
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
12/21/2009 2:45:00 PM
Since the very start of the financial crisis, the talking heads have glided down a slope of unwavering hope. At so many fleeting lows, they called the absolute "end" to the rout -- only to watch in horror as banking shares were battered even further. To illustrate this phenomenon is the following close-up of the Philadelphia/KBW Bank Index since 2006 alongside some of the most blatantly misguided mainstream insights.
Filed Under:
us banking sector, recovery, Philadelphia Bank Index, FDIC
Category:
Economy
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by
Jason Farkas
12/17/2009 1:45:00 PM
In the U.S., consumer spending represents about 70% of GDP. After decades of an inflationary “crack-up” boom, people are stuffed to the gills with consumer debt. But it appears that its long build-up has turned down, which is a message businesses should heed.
Filed Under:
BEBE, ANF, MRT, RUTH, U.S. unemploymen, recession, consumer debt
Category:
Economy
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by
Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/10/2009 2:00:00 PM
This week, Fitch Ratings announced that “Latvia and Lithuania’s ratings are under pressure from the sharp deterioration in public finances.” They've also just cut their rating on Greek government bonds, and S&P cut its outlook for Spain's debt from to "negative." All that less than three weeks after Dubai defaulted on its debt through its subsidiary Dubai World. Should you care? Yes, says EWI's Jason Farkas.
Filed Under:
Latvia, Lithuania, baltics, Spain, greek debt, dubai, default, currency devaluation, great depression
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
12/2/2009 6:30:00 PM
For an economy to run smoothly, two players must coexist: A willing and able lender and a well-qualified borrower to pay said lender back, with interest. Take either one away, and the system goes -- as my grandma used to say -- "Plotz!" Case in point: the "muni-bond malaise" of early 2009.
Filed Under:
municipal bonds, munis, muni bonds, Build America Bonds, BABs
Category:
Economy
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by
Jason Farkas
12/1/2009 2:30:00 PM
With all the talk about the end of the Great Recession, I continually ask myself the following questions: Am I just being a pessimist for believing in a deflationary depression? Am I a fool to fight those who make the rules: Congress, the Fed and the Treasury? So, let’s address a key point that most mainstream analysts seem to have missed...
Filed Under:
Great Recession, lehman brothers, Bear Stearns, Fed, Treasury, commercial paper
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
11/30/2009 6:45:00 PM
As the United Arab Emirates celebrates its 38-year Anniversary of Independence from Britain this week, a dark cloud of uncertainty casts a shadow of fear over the festivities. The source of the fog: the November 25, 2009 event known as "the Dubai World Debacle."
Filed Under:
dubai, Dubai World, United Arab Emirates, Dubai Finanicial Market
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
11/25/2009 3:15:00 PM
For those of us living in North America, tomorrow (November 26) is Thanksgiving Day. For many the day includes the time-honored tradition of going around the dinner table and asking each guest one simple question: "What are you grateful for?" Well, for those "feasting" at the mainstream financial table, the answer to that question is three-fold, starting with:
Filed Under:
U.S. economy, financial crisis, banking sectory, recovery, bob prechter, DJIA
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
11/23/2009 5:30:00 PM
It's official: After a 50%-plus rally in U.S. stocks, the fear of deflation has gone from "real, cataclysmic threat" to imaginary bogeyman hiding under the beds of the few remaining uber-bears. Turn on the "lights" of reality, and said monster supposedly disappears into thin air..
Filed Under:
U.S. economy, deflation, bob prechter, consumer credit, bank lending
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
11/16/2009 4:15:00 PM
General Motors has just issued its first public income statement since emerging from the ashes of bankruptcy four months ago. The results for the "New GM"? Well, mixed... All of which is to say, "Old GM" -- the former icon of American manufacturing -- is no more.
Filed Under:
General Motors Corp., General Motors Company, New GM, Old GM, GM Co.
Category:
Economy
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by
Jason Farkas
11/13/2009 11:30:00 AM
In Part II of this article, EWI's Jason Farkas explains further why hyperinflation in the U.S. is likely not something we should worry about over the next few years -- and what signs to look for when it does become a real threat.
Filed Under:
Robert Prechter, conquer the crash, inflation, hyperinflation, deflation, deficit spending, Zimbabwe, quantitative easing
Category:
Economy
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by
Jason Farkas
11/12/2009 1:30:00 PM
The situation in the U.S. situation is different from bouts with hyperinflation in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil. It also seems reasonable to examine hyperinflation in another nation -- Zimbabwe -- in order to answer a few important questions...
Filed Under:
Robert Prechter, conquer the crash, inflation, hyperinflation, deflation, deficit spending, Zimbabwe
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
11/6/2009 7:15:00 PM
Almost everywhere I look in the mainstream financial media, I see story after story celebrating the end of the worst U.S. recession since the 1930's AND start of an all-out recovery to a brighter, smarter-for-the-pain bull market. "The grimmest days are now behind us," begins a November 5 BBC report. "All that talk of a return to the thirties now seems fanciful."
Filed Under:
us economy, GDP, recovery, unemployment, finance, credit crisis
Category:
Economy
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by
Nico Isaac
10/23/2009 3:45:00 PM
In case your name happens to be "Gilligan" (first mate of the marooned S.S. Minnow), allow me to break the news to you: According to the mainstream financial experts, the U.S. banking sector has officially been rescued from worst credit crisis since the Great Depression. If this sounds familiar, there's good reason...
Filed Under:
banking sector, Philadelphia Banking Index, KBW Index, credit crisis
Category:
Economy
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by
Jason Farkas
10/21/2009 1:45:00 PM
An increasingly loud chorus of investors expects the imminent demise of the US dollar and US Treasuries. They also expect that an exploding monetary base and the US’s structural problems will lead to massive inflation. This opinion may prove to be correct in the very long run, but evidence continues to mount that deflationary will come first.
Filed Under:
us dollar, Us treasuries, inflation, deflation, prechter, forex, emerging markets, derivatives, high-frequency trading, terrorism
Category:
Economy
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by
Robert Folsom
10/20/2009 1:30:00 PM
The new chapters allow Bob to spell out his unique arguments for deflation, and a lot more. He proves that every market offers a story, if you know where to look and how to tell it -- that is Bob's exceptional gift. No financial story could be more compelling than the stock market's manic climb to the 2007 peak, and the second includes an entire chapter to tell it. If you think you remember this period, wait till you read his description...
Filed Under:
prechter
Category:
Economy
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Introducing ...
The Mania Chronicles |
 With 700 pages and a large, 8-1/2" x 11" format, it's only a "book" in name. In fact, it's an encyclopedic reference that covers every twist and turn of the rise and (initial) fall of the historic financial bubble - all observed and anticipated in real time via The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and The Elliott Wave Theorist. |
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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.
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