It's Official: Swine Flu Is a Pandemic
The "quiet epidemic" is back.

"WHO declares first 21st century flu pandemic," reads a June 11 headline. To us here at Elliott Wave International, what continues to be most interesting is the timing of the swine flu outbreak. As we've reported before, disease epidemics are hardly random. Historically, they occur at specific moments in human history: when social mood is at a low.

It's Not Science Fiction, Isaac, it's Socionomics

Social Mood, Stocks and Epidemics
As prices fall, susceptibility rises

As measured by the stock market, we recently completed a large wave in a powerfully-negative social-mood trend. It bottomed amid extremely pessimistic sentiment. Social stress reached higher levels than it has in decades. Soon after, H1N1 swine flu erupted and came right to the edge of being a pandemic. If this was the only such instance of disease breaking out after a social-mood decline, it might be coincidence, but there are numerous examples in the historical record.

"The Changes No One Else Sees Coming"
Put bluntly, it's the ability to separate the facts from the B.S., to distinguish the cause from the effect.

Huge changes are happening already. And they are drastic in ways the overused political slogans never expected. Yet if anything, the political talk you now hear about "change" and the "public mood" are in fact pages from our playbook...

Swine Flu and Elliott Wave Analysis (Updated)
Think epidemics are random? Hold that answer.

What Happened to The Bullish Books Sentiment Indicator?
Best to Answer the Question Visually

Alan Greenspan and the “Trail of Casualties”
We just want someone to blame... anyone but ourselves.

How Obama Won the Presidency
A look at social mood’s role in Barack Obama’s presidential victory – and how it will continue to influence his presidency.

Talent, intellect, determination and fund-raising aside, you must dig beneath the crust of stump-speech rhetoric to uncover the larger force driving Barack Obama to victory.

Defending Ebenezer Scrooge
Simply say the word and there's no explanation necessary

Christmas is no time for insults, but somehow it's the only season when someone can slap you with the one name that really hurts...

The National Christmas Tree… Indicator?
Another Measure of Social Mood

Banks Need Therapy, Too
But maybe they shouldn't count on the couch

...a recent Atlanta Journal Constitution headline: “Therapists helping builders cope during housing slump.” The article explained how “Every builder seems to know a colleague swamped in debt, and a few know friends in the business who have taken their lives.” A year ago, few imagined that smiling builders talking on cell phones in big trucks would soon be seeking emotional support on therapists’ couches.

"Skirmish," "Invasion," and/or "War" Between Russia and Georgia
How the Conflict is "Unscheduled, But Not Unpredicted"

The erupting conflict between Russia and the Republic of Georgia in South Ossetia can safely be described as an unscheduled news event: Initial news reports of the fighting ranged from "armed skirmish" to "invasion" to "war." Some news stories tried to offer a context to Friday's fighting, saying it represents the culmination of years of tension between Russia and Georgia. While the tension has indeed been long-standing, this still begs the question: Why is the "culmination" unfolding now?

Short Shorts and Stocks: What's the Connection?
Can fashion trends tell you anything about where stocks are heading?

Perusing the mainstream media headlines yesterday, I came upon a story that caught my attention. The headline: Designer says fashion will "prevail" in the face of economic downturn. No argument here, but my question is ...

Patterns, the Presidency, and Elliott Waves
Follow Those Squiggly Lines...

Most academics and economists have long resisted any suggestion that prices in financial markets are patterned. I find their attitude an endless source of curiosity. If collective behavior is patterned, and if financial markets are a collective activity, then it's common sense to believe that a price chart may be more than a bunch of squiggly lines....

What's in Store for the Mega-Rich in a Bear Market?

The headline in the Wall Street Journal's Wealth Report blog caught my eye: "10 Things the Wealthy Should Leave Their Kids — Besides Money" (May 12, 2008). Which brought to mind immediately a section in our most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast about the future for the mega-rich in a bear market.

From "Corpse Art" To "Skullmania"
Why has our collective percepton of art changed so dramatically over the past decade?

We call a urinal "the most influential work of art of the 20th century" and flock to see dead bodies set as sculptures. Is there a connection between the recent popularity of “all things melancholic” and the state of our collective spirits? We at Elliott Wave International think there is. Watch this free documentary for the answers.

Fish, Barrel, Pull the Trigger
Just Because They're In the Barrel Doesn't Mean You Shouldn't Pull the Trigger

Enough with the fish metaphor; I'm not going to do any shooting today. Instead, I'd like to offer a three-sentence explanation of why the conventional wisdom is so often so mistaken. Here goes:

The Bigger They Come, The Harder They Fall

Of all the reactions to the news about Eliot Spitzer's call-girl dalliance, there's one you won't read anywhere but here: Former heroes get cut down to size in a bear market.

Today the World Is Smaller

Which individual has exerted the greatest influence on American political thought over the past half-century? I can think of very few people who deserve serious mention, but on my short list, one particular person's influence plainly trumps all others....

From The Oscars To Finance: 1929 Remembered
Will the Great Depression reapper on the big screen of the U.S. economy

It's amazing to think that the very first Oscars were held on May 16, 1929, when movie stars drove up in Tin Lizzies for a private dinner of 200-plus guests at the Roosevelt Hotel. The ticket for the evening that lasted little more than 15 minutes cost only $5. How things have changed... Yet in other ways, such as  the films themselves and the finanical "drama" of the Great Depression, 1929 feels eerily familiar.