As winter turns to spring on March 20 AND brown turns to green, commodity investors have one question: Which markets will blossom into bulls and which ones will wither in coming months?
Well, nobody is more qualified to answer that than EWI's chief commodity analyst and long-time Monthly Futures Junctures (MFJ) editor Jeffery Kennedy. In his brand-new March 2010 MFJ (on-line now) Jeffrey reveals the long-term blooms and busts ahead in the commodity markets.
If you're concerned about the derivative component of futures, Jeffrey discusses an alternative. In the "Monthly Feature" segment of the March MFJ, he writes: "There's a way to explore the world of commodities without having to worry about the leverage factor: commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs)." Then, he reveals the dominant wave patterns under way in FOUR commodity-based ETFs via detailed charts and in-depth commentary: Coffee, sugar, grains, and livestock.
Next up is "Wave Watch." Here Jeffrey provides two labeled snapshots per 11 markets -- each one includes clearly marked trendlines, up/downside objectives, support/resistance levels, and bold arrows pointing prices in their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Cocoa: The December 2009 MFJ wrote: "It's time to prepare for a trend change. Cocoa's price chart is like a flashing strobe light. With five waves up and done, expectations call for a selloff to near 3000." Prices fulfilled this script to a "T" with prices falling straight into the cited target. Next, the February 2010 "Wave Watch" showed cocoa's drop continuing further. Now what?
Cotton: The January 2010 MFJ presented an exciting picture of cotton that showed prices nearing the end of wave (4) down. Once finished, wave (5) was set to introduce a powerful rally to new contract highs. In no time, cotton stole the show with prices soaring to their loftiest levels in 19 months before pausing...
Soybeans: The December 2009 observed a large triangle taking up "more than half of" 2009 -- a strong, terminating pattern. There, Jeffrey also incorporated a chart of Power Shares Deutsche Bank Agriculture ETF to corroborate his overall bearish assessment for "further selling." Now, the March "Wave Watch" grabs the bean baton.
Sugar: The October 2009 MFJ presented a groundbreaking study into the last four major tops in sugar's history, dating back to 1974, to determine whether the late September high fits the bill of a lasting peak. In MFJS's own words: "A move beyond critical resistance would imply the larger trend in sugar is still up."Prices did rise above resistance and continued their charge to three-decade highs before hitting a sour note in early February.
Corn: Check out the following sequence of analysis:
- June 2009 MFJ wrote: "The advance that began in December is complete. This means that the stage is set for renewed selling that should push prices below the 2008 low. This is an intermediate tradable top." A 35% plunge followed to below the 2008 low.
- September 2009 MFJ saw the downturn coming to an end and suggested a "rally" was due to take prices back above the $4/bushel level. From there, prices rallied strong until petering out in a multi-month long, sideways trend.
- January 2010 MFJ "Wave Watch" showed prices finally set to break out to the downside -- and that's precisely what happened. Now, the March MFJ takes it from here.
Believe it or not, that's just the tip of the topsoil. The March 2010 MFJ presents labeled price charts for SEVEN other markets, including the Continuous Commodity Index. Not to mention a practical "Traders Classroom" lesson on how to use the Key Reversal Bar Pattern to spot high-probability trade set-ups.