Suppose Alfred Hitchcock was still alive and could use his incomparable gifts as a storyteller and movie director to chronicle the true twisted tales of our recent financial, political, and social scene. No one would enjoy it more or do it better. Double ironies, unexpected twists, and the plain unpredictable have unfolded time and again.
Who, for example, would have predicted that Toyota -- secure in the public's mind as a top auto brand -- would suffer untold damage to its reputation for quality because of three successive major recalls, and face a criminal investigation by federal prosecutors? Doubly so, who could have foretold this scandal would happen soon after U.S. automakers were bailed out of the worst financial crisis of their industrial lives -- to give Detroit the opportunity to capitalize on Toyota's misfortune?
Who was the most valuable player in Superbowl XLIV? Peyton Manning was, as virtually everyone predicted! But hold on a second. Not only did the Saints beat the Colts (also unexpected), Saints quarterback Drew Brees earned the most valuable player. Vegas came out ahead on that one.
Who would have predicted the "sure fire" Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would be defeated by a first-term, African-American senator from Illinois? Moreover, this senator would triumph over the wife of the first "black" president, as Bill Clinton was described because of his affinity with the black community. Perhaps most unlikely of all is that this senator would win the presidency with the middle name "Hussein." A story like that would be laughable in a fictional book.
Who would have predicted that the pristine image of the top name in golf -- perhaps in all of sport -- would be obliterated in days by a nuclear publicity bomb, because of the athlete's multiple marital affairs?
Who would have predicted that one of the "safest" blue-chip stocks would recently sell for under a dollar? Citigroup belongs to one of the most conservative sectors. The most insightful financial minds in the world could not have foretold this development a few short years ago.
Who would have predicted a Republican would take the seat held for 47 years by "Lion of the Senate" Ted Kennedy, in the liberal state of Massachusetts? If that "twist" wasn't unexpected enough, Kennedy had championed healthcare reform for decades; but Republican Scott Brown now becomes the potential 41st vote against healthcare reform.
What about President Obama recently stumping for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Las Vegas? Obama talked about bringing jobs to the economically hard-hit city. The irony is that just a year ago, the President said companies “can’t go take a trip to Las Vegas...on the taxpayer’s dime.” Conventions in Sin City were cancelled left and right (no pun intended), costing casinos tens of millions.
Saving the best for last:
" . . . . for the mechanism of the market to be satisfied, there must be reasons for people to disregard really important advice at the time it is most important that they actually take it."
Bob Prechter, Prechter's Perspective
Isn't ironic that people pay less attention to advice like Bob Prechter's, just when they need it the most?
This is despite the fact that several of his forecasts have recently come to pass. EWI called the 2007 stock market top, the 2009 bottom and turn up, the recent dollar bottom and turn up, and great guidance on gold and silver.
EWI's forecasts are not always this much on target -- no service is perfect. But given how remarkably accurate these major forecasts have been, wouldn't it be wise to keep up with what we believe could be "market history" in the making?