Over the last month, there have been more sheer vertical drops AND rapid, soaring jumps in the world's leading commodity markets than in the 2010 Winter Olympics. The big question is -- which names will be standing at the awards podium, and which ones will be skating on thin ice in the weeks, and months to come?
Well, few experts are more qualified to answer that than EWI's chief commodity analyst and long-time Monthly Futures Junctures (MFJ, for short) editor Jeffery Kennedy. In his brand-new February 2010 MFJ (online now) Jeffrey presents the long-term twists and turns in store for these top contenders:
"Monthly Feature": In the opening "Monthly Feature" segment, Jeffrey first reveals the top FIVE Elliott wave rules and guidelines. Then he uses this "short-list" of essentials to identify high probability trade set ups in two commodities: Lean Hogs and Rough Rice. With four compelling price charts and four comprehensive pages, Jeffrey's coverage of these two markets sets the stage for dramatic moves.
Next up is "Wave Watch." Here, Jeffrey provides two labeled snapshots per 11 markets -- each of which include clearly marked trendlines, up/downside objectives, support/resistance levels and bold arrows pointing prices in their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Cocoa: The December 2009 MFJ "Feature" wrote: "It's time to prepare for a trend change. Cocoa's price chart is like a flashing strobe light. With five waves up and done, expectations call for a selloff to near 3000." Prices fulfilled this script to a "T" with prices falling straight into the cited target. What next?
Cotton: The January 2010 MFJ "Wave Watch" presented an exciting picture of cotton that showed prices nearing the end of wave (4) down. Once finished, wave (5) was set to introduce a powerful rally to new contract highs. Flash ahead: cotton has stolen the show with prices soaring to their loftiest levels in 19 months...
Soybeans: The December 2009 "Feature" observed a large triangle Elliott wave pattern taking up "more than half of" 2009. There, Jeffrey also incorporated a chart of Power Shares Deutsche Bank Agriculture ETF to corroborate his overall bearish assessment for "further selling." Now, the February "Wave Watch" grabs the bean baton.
Sugar: The October 2009 MFJ "Feature" presented a groundbreaking study into the last four major tops in sugar's history, dating back to 1974, to determine whether the late September high fits the bill of a lasting peak. In MFJS's own words: "A move beyond critical resistance would imply the larger trend in sugar is still up." Prices did rise above resistance and continued their charge to three-decade highs before hitting a sour note in early February.
Corn: The June 2009 MFJ wrote: "The advance that began in December is complete. This means that the stage is set for renewed selling that should push prices below the 2008 low. This is an intermediate tradable top." A 35% plunge followed to below the 2008 low. Next, the September 2009 MFJ saw the downturn coming to an end and suggested a "rally" was due to take prices back above the $4/bushel level. From there, prices rallied strong until petering out in a multi-month long, sideways trend. Then, the January 2010 MFJ "Wave Watch" showed prices finally set to break out to the downside -- and that's precisely what happened. Now, the February MFJ takes it from here.
Believe it or not, that's just the beginning. With 12 dynamic pages including more than two-dozen charts, the February 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures offers the most objective analysis of the long-term trend changes in store for the world's leading commodity markets.