And the award for best performing commodity of 2009 goes to... sugar. Last year, sugar prices skyrocketed 128%, to land at their highest level in nearly three decades. No sooner had the market accepted this honor than the financial blogosphere became log jammed with post after post debating whether the great "Sugar Rush" was here to stay.
For, or against -- the sugar dispute is now the "Health Care" of hard assets. The recent news items below show exactly how the lines between bull and bear are drawn:
"Every piece of news that comes out [of sugar] at the moment seems to be bullish. Fundamentally, there's no reason to sell." (Forbes)
-- VERSUS --
"The last penny in sugar is technically driven." (Bloomberg)
The next set: "Sugar prices should stay well supported. There's nothing to suggest that we've seen a top for this rally yet." (Associated Press)
-- VERSUS --
"In sugar, the near-term price risk is to the downside. I'm not sure it's a good idea to take a long position right now." (Forex Yard)
And finally: "It's a difficult dilemma: Stay long and be prepared to ride out the wave of selling; or wait and risk missing the boat if the selling doesn't materialize." (Alibaba News Channel)
"Difficult" is putting it nicely.
(Steering A Course In Sugar: Elliott Wave International's January 25 Daily Futures Junctures shows you labeled price charts, in-depth commentary, and live, video analysis revealing whether this sweet market will continue to soar. Get the complete, Futures Junctures Service package today.)
See, while the great "fundamental" sugar debate rages on, EWI's chief commodity analyst and long-time Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy has comprehensive technical insight into sugar's near-, and long-term trend right now.
Jeffrey first presented his original Elliott wave count for sugar in the October 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures (MFJ, for short)"Featured Market" segment. There, Jeffrey showed a groundbreaking case study of the past four major peaks in sugar's 30-year history -- AND compared them to the historic highs of now. In Jeffrey's own words:
"A move beyond critical resistance would turn the decline from the August peak into a three-wave move and imply that the larger trend is still up."
After months of consolidating sideways, sugar prices did in fact rise above the resistance level cited in the October 2009 MFJ-- on their way to setting the new, 29-year high we see today.
And now, in the January 25 Daily Futures Junctures Jeffrey takes on the short-term trends in sugar to reveal where the market could be in the days and maybe weeks ahead.