For commodities, 2009 will be remembered as the year the raw material bear went into hibernation: As a whole, the sector ended 2009 with its strongest gain since 1974.
As for whether 2010 will provide a repeat performance -- the brand-new January 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures (MFJ, for short) steps in with one of the most revealing, and riveting publications in recent memory. In 12 dynamic pages including more than two-dozen charts, EWI's chief commodity analyst and long-time Monthly Futures Junctures editor Jeffery Kennedy identifies the biggest turning points to come for these, and many more, markets:
In the opening "Monthly Feature" segment, Jeffrey turns the spotlight on not one, but two commodities whose wave structures scream "Look At Me!" They are: Soybean Oil and Oats. By analyzing the patterns, rules, guidelines, and personality of both markets, Jeffrey is able to match price action with one, highly dramatic move.
Next up is "Wave Watch." Here, Jeffrey provides two labeled snapshots per 11 markets -- each of which include clearly marked trendlines, up/downside objectives, support/resistance levels, and bold arrows pointing prices in their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Cocoa: The August 2009 MFJ "Feature" wrote: "Until we see confirming price action, we can't rule out a further rally" to above the 3200 level. A hair-raising rally to 30-year highs followed. Next, the December 2009 MFJ warned it was "time to prepare for a change in trend." And, cocoa prices soon soured to a three-week low before rebounding. The January MFJ takes it from here...
Sugar: The October 2009 MFJ "Feature" presented a groundbreaking study into the last four major tops in sugar's history, dating back to 1974, to determine whether the late September high fits the bill of a lasting peak. In MFJS's own words: "A move beyond critical resistance would imply the larger trend in sugar is still up."Now, with prices sticking to three-decade highs, the January close-up shows how strong the market's grip actually is.
Orange Juice: Last summer, prices circled the drain of multi-month lows with mocking headlines such as "OJ GETS SQUEEZED" abounding. YET --the June MFJ included a bullish price chart with a bold arrow pointed above the $1 level. Next, the July publication showed the rally continuing even higher to above 110 before turning down in a sharp decline. Finally, the November MFJ showed a resumption of the uptrend in a third wave advance to beyond the previous high. Now what?
Soybeans: The December 2009 MFJ "Feature" observed a large triangle taking up "more than half of" 2009 -- a strong, terminating pattern. There, Jeffrey also incorporated a chart of Power Shares Deutsche Bank Agriculture ETF to corroborate his overall bearish assessment for "further selling." Now, with beans at a two-month low, the January close-up grabs the wheel.
Corn: The June 2009 MFJ wrote: "The advance that began in December is complete. This means that the stage is set for renewed selling that should push prices below the 2008 low. This is an intermediate tradable top." A 35% plunge followed to below the 2008 low. Next, the September 2009 MFJ saw the downturn coming to an end and suggested a "rally" was due to take prices back above the $4/bushel level. From there, prices rallied strong until petering out in a multi-month long, sideways trend. The January MFJ shows the most likely direction for a breakout.