Many times, using the mainstream financial media for insight into upcoming trend changes in the world's leading markets feels eerily similar to shaking a Magic 8-Ball toy and getting this response: Answer Unclear, Try Again Later.
Case in point: This recent Associated Press headline regarding the Soybean market: "Lack of fundamental news fails to provide direction."
Let me be perfectly clear: Elliott wave analysis does NOT eliminate waiting; every single one of our interpretations of the market's wave pattern hinges on price action confirming the wave count. The difference is: With Elliott wave analysis, you know exactly WHAT you're looking for BEFORE the major turns take place.
Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, all too often recognizes trend changes only AFTER they have gotten underway.
With that in mind, let's return our attention to the Soybean market and see how EWI's chief commodity analyst and long-time Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy has remained one step ahead of the grain's biggest moves over the course of 2009.
Here, the following close-up of Soybean prices shows how Futures Junctures Service captured several of the market's most meaningful trend changes at their very start:
For a broader perspective, the full Futures Junctures Service insights are presented below:
- March 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures (MFJ, for short) "Featured Market" segment on grains wrote: "Are the January selloffs cooling down or heating up? With respect to soybeans, prices are poised for a test of the January high."
An explosive rally to well beyond the January high followed.
- June MFJ "Feature": "The Party's Over In Grains. Odds are that the high of the year is in place at soybeans 1291 ¼ and that will introduce a selloff. It's unlikely that a new high will occur in soybeans."
Prices plummeted 20% in the months following, leaving the 2009 high firmly intact.
- September 22 Daily Futures Junctures: "We will either witness the June selloff in soybeans accelerate. OR -- the second possibility is that the exact opposite occurs, which is why my attention is keenly focused on cited key and critical resistance levels."
Days later, prices broke through key resistance to signal the continuation of the uptrend.
- November MFJ "Feature": "Scenario 2: Another possible interpretation is that prices are unfolding as a triangle. If correct, then the current move up will be short-lived."