Representatives from 192 nations are gathering in Copenhagen on December 7-18, to "try to reach what has so far been elusive common ground on the issue of climate change." (The New York Times)
An event of this size might lead you to expect a lot of commotion at the scene. Yet, according to reports, "A lot of people were surprised: They thought there would be a lot more activity in the streets…but the protesters have been pretty quiet.” And if you glance at top headlines, you're lucky to find a report from the summit in the first ten stories. If this is potentially the most important climate change event of this decade -- why so quiet?
Socionomics, the new science of social prediction based on the Elliott Wave Principle and pioneered by EWI's president Robert Prechter, may offer some answers.
In Prechter's April 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist, Alan Hall of The Socionomics Institute published an eye-opening study titled, “Elliott Waves Regulate Commodity Prices and Expressions of Environmentalism.” It demonstrated that pro-environmental legislation accompanies commodity bull markets, while commodity bear markets bring setbacks for the green movement. (Free members of Socionomics.net can read the study in full, free, via this link.)
Mr. Hall postulated in April 2008 that "commodities -- the last refuge for speculators -- are near a major top." What prompted him to that conclusion was the Elliott wave pattern in the CRB, the world's main commodity price index. In early 2008, the CRB was likely finishing its fifth and final wave up, suggesting a collapse in prices straight ahead. Said Mr. Hall:
"Fear is a characteristic of fifth waves in bull markets in commodities: fear of inflation, fear of drought, fear of war. In addition to survivalism, that mood also produced another fear-related behavior: environmentalism. The next chart shows that important progress in the environmental movement occurred during waves III and V in the CRB index. In contrast, pro-environmental legislation is largely absent during commodity price declines.
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"The environmental fear in wave V is stronger and broader than that of wave III and is complicated by fear of shortages: for example, [those] of global warming and peak oil. To a socionomist, it is a natural step to connect environmental fear with commodities booms. The socionomic perspective explains how reaching extremes in fears about climate, shortages and inflation signals an approaching price collapse for commodities.
Mr. Hall's April 2008 report concluded: "The downturn in the CRB Index should usher in a period of lessening popular concern about the environment and material setbacks for the environmental movement."
Commodities indeed crashed later in 2008. Enter the Copenhagen Climate Summit of 2009 -- a "surprisingly" quiet event, so far.