It's been a rough year for commodities, and even a rougher one for those in the mainstream who expected the global economic downturn to increase the "safe haven" premium of these assets.
So, as the final days of 2008 count down, one question rises to the front: Will commodities regain their bullish shine in 2009? The brand-new, just-published December Monthly Futures Junctures (MFJ) has the most original and objective answer out there.
In this month's special, expanded “Monthly Feature” segment, Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy presents an exclusive "long-term review of" EIGHT major commodity markets. With five pages AND eight eye-opening charts of the major grains, softs, and meats, Jeffrey reveals whether the bear market taking these markets down is over or not.
Served up next is MFJ’s “Wave Watch.” Here, Jeffrey provides two labeled snapshots per 12 markets -- each of which include clearly marked trendlines, up/downside objectives, support/resistance levels, and bold arrows pointing prices in their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Coffee AND Sugar: Six months ago, the July 2008 MFJ “Monthly Feature” saw the bullish caffeine buzz wearing off and wrote: “The larger trend in coffee is down. We identify the June peak as a tradable top and expect a sell off to below the May low.” On its heels, the September 2008 MFJ “Feature” told a “sour” sugar story and wrote: “The pattern argues for a sizable selloff in price.”
From their respective peaks, both markets suffered sharp declines to a 26-month low in coffee and 11-month in sugar. Find out how the story develops from here.
Cocoa: The Million "Dollar" Question: When cocoa prices plunged to an 11-month low in mid-November, the mainstream experts cited one culprit: "The stronger dollar weighs on the prices of soft commodities" (AP). Problem: From there, cocoa took off to the upside in a powerful rally to three-month highs, LONG before the U.S. dollar turned down in early December. The new MFJ tells it like it is… and, likely, will be.
Corn On the C-objective Analysis: Follow along:
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January 2008 Monthly Futures Junctures: "The advance will continue to ultimately beyond the July 1996 peak onto a much higher level, closer to 725-750. [Then] we expect the move to be completely retraced once complete." Prices fulfilled this forecast to a T.
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July 2008 Monthly Futures Junctures: Right as corn prices were nearing their record peak, Jeffrey wrote: "Evidence suggest the five wave move up is complete,"implying that the trend was about to turn down.
- August 2008 Monthly Futures Junctures: "Corn has put in a multi-year top."
The new, December MFJ grabs the baton.
Live Cattle: Speaking of corn: What happened to the widely popular notion that soaring corn prices -- the leading ingredient in livestock feed -- were slaughtering the live cattle market? Higher feed costs = lower demand, so the story went. Yet, both markets hit their respective peaks this summer and spent the following months in a free fall. MFJ offers grade A analysis.
Believe it or not, that's just the beginning. The December Monthly Futures Junctures presents in-depth analysis, original price charts, and objective commentary on a total of 12 major markets. Ring in the new year early with a risk-free subscription today.