Below is an excerpt from a Market Insight comment that Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service editor Jim Martens posts regularly for his subscribers:
"5/20/2008 - I've been relatively quiet lately. I haven't had much to say. While I'm always entertaining the idea that my market outlook is incorrect, and I'm more than willing to explore alternate scenarios – that's what I do with most of my time – I simply [don't] see enough evidence to overcome the favored weak [U.S.] dollar outlook. It's not being stubborn. It's not overconfidence. I'm rarely overconfident. Perhaps that's the reason I'm an analyst and not a trader. To be a successful trader, you have to have a bias. You have to believe in your position. For me, having a position is emotional. The position is a distraction. If I have a position, I have a bias, and that works against being able to adjust to market action. I'm an analyst."
The reason Jim has been "quiet" in sharing his "extra" thoughts with the subscribers of his Currency Specialty Service is because his outlook for the U.S. dollar has been on track for weeks. Why? Because the evidence has been pointing towards the weaker USD.
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What evidence, you ask? The price of oil, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the European Central Bank's refusal to cut rates? No. The evidence Jim Martens relies on are Elliott wave patterns in the charts of the U.S. Dollar Index, euro-dollar (EURUSD) and other major and minor forex pairs.
For example, here is a 3-minute clip from a video update Jim Martens recorded for his Currency Specialty Service subscribers on May 9. If you remember, at that time, the USD had gained strongly, and rumors were flying that it would gain even more. But watch this video and see how simple Elliott wave techniques can help you bet against the crowd's opinion:
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Sign up for EWI's Currency Specialty Service now and receive full-length video forecasts like these every week, on top of 24-hour-a-day forecasts. Your subscription also gets you instant free access to a free 49-minute webinar on how to trade forex with Elliott wave. The webinar, recorded live on March 25 by EWI's Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens, covers topics such as:
- How do I identify trade set-ups?
- How do I set protective stops using Elliott to help me manage risk?
- How do I set price targets using Elliott?
- How do I identify a wave pattern in real time forex trading on my screen?
To watch this free 49-minute webinar now, subscribe to EWI's Currency Specialty Service and click on the "Video/Education" tab once you have logged in.