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Land Ho! The Ship of Opportunity Comes to Shore
A brand new Monthly Futures Junctures reveals the long-term trend changes in store for key commodity markets

By Nico Isaac
Tue, 30 Jul 2013 15:45:00 ET
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Investing in commodities can feel a lot like sailing the very volatile high seas. As the water gets choppier and the waves more violent, one by one the green-faced passengers exit the sides onto waiting life boats and row back to shore.  

But, when the captain himself takes a flying leap overboard, that's when things get really scary.
 
On July 25, the largest investment bank in the United States, JP Morgan Chase & Co., announced that it will sell or spin off its estimated $14.3 billion of physical commodities as it leaves the business of trading raw materials.
 
According to the mainstream experts, the timing couldn't be better. Writes one July 26 news source:
 
Analysts at banks from Citigroup Inc. to Goldman Sachs Inc. have said the decade-long commodity bull market is ending.... The banks are saying, 'I don't need the hassle and there's no money to be made anyhow.' (Bloomberg Businessweek)
 
So, is it time to put on your life vest and abandon the commodity ship?
 
Absolutely not. You can stay secure on deck. The fact is, the commodity bull market ended two years ago, when the bellwether Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) turned down from its April 2011 all-time high.
 
At the time, EWI's senior commodities analyst, Jeffrey Kennedy, announced the arrival of the commodities bear market in his September 2011 Monthly Futures Junctures. Jeffrey also revealed how the trend reversal would be marked by huge moves to the downside, followed by even bigger moves to the upside.
 
In essence, it would be a "commodity traders dream": a time to recommit to the raw materials sector with greater gusto, not jump overboard.
 
And now, in his brand-new all-video Monthly Futures Junctures, Jeffrey reveals where the ship of opportunity is slated to come to shore:
 
Soybean Meal: One year ago in the August 2012 Featured Market segment, he set the stage for a meaningful turn down with the following price chart and analysis:
 
 
 
 
“An impulsive wave from November 2011 may have ended at 509.8 in July. If so, then we can expect a decline into 388.7-351.1. This area represents the span of the previous fourth wave, which is in line with the guideline of corrective waves.”
 
 
 
 
Now that soy meal has landed within the cited target area, the new Monthly Futures Junctures reveals whether the move to the downside has reached its end.
 
Soybean Oil: Like soybean meal, Jeffrey has been one step ahead of the 2012 sell-off in soybean oil. Here, the March 2012 edition of Monthly Futures Junctures set off the bearish alarm bells with this chart and analysis:
 
 
 
 
“The advance from the December 2011 low to the March high is a textbook example of a Zigzag.... Being able to classify the wave pattern as a Zigzag makes it easier to forecast the next move. Since Zigzags are corrective wave patterns, we can expect soybean oil's recent price moves to be more than fully retraced.”
 
 
 
 
Now that the full retracement has occurred, the most recent Monthly Futures Junctures shows what price must do to confirm the start of a months-long bear trend.
 
Feeder Cattle: This market has been off of Jeffrey's long-term radar for nearly a year... until now. There are two exciting reasons why feeder cattle are closing the Featured Market show: a powerful bullish labeling, and an equally powerful bearish one. Monthly Futures Junctures reveals exactly what price must do to "truly embrace" the correct labeling.
 
 
 
 

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