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"Half-time" In America: Will the Second Half Really Be Better?
The brand-new, February 2012 issue of our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast examines unique market evidence to tell you whether U.S. stocks are REALLY headed for a new bull market

By Nico Isaac
Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:45:00 ET
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*Warning: This article contains spoilers of the 2012 Super Bowl

In case you missed yesterday’s 2012 Super Bowl game, here are the key highlights:
  • Final score: New York Giants beat the New England Patriots: 21-17
  • Most Valuable Player: Eli Manning
  • Most Memorable Performance by: 82-year old famed actor Clint Eastwood 
Yes, you read that last detail right. The two-minute Chrysler ad narrated by Eastwood at half-time has everyone talking. The reason being: The ad was filled with more good-ole-fashioned inspiration than your great-grandma’s apple pie -- as this excerpt from the ad makes clear:
“This country can’t be knocked down with one punch… Yeah. It’s half-time America, and our second half is about to begin.”
Well, in the famous words of Eastwood's iconic Dirty Harry Callahan character, “You’ve got to ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky?”
From an Elliott wave (and socionomic) perspective, the future direction of the U.S. stock market and economy has nothing to do with luck. In our experience, one factor -- and only one factor -- can initiate a lasting bull market: a lasting upturn in social mood.
Here at Elliott Wave International, we have spent the past 30+ years cataloguing traits of positive (and negative) collective psychology. And, in the brand-new, February 2012 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, our analysts go down that "required" list to show you whether the “second half” of U.S. stocks and economy will really be bulls' victory.
Required bullish trait #1: A bullish Elliott wave structure of the stock market. Elliott waves fall into two main groups:
  • Impulsive: A 5-wave move that develops in the direction of the larger trend
  • Corrective: A 3-wave move that goes against the larger trend 
Page 2 of the February 2012 Financial Forecast shows you an Elliott wave-labeled DJIA chart where you can see if the rally off the 2009 low has unfolded in 5 waves (impulsive; bullish) or 5 waves (corrective; bearish).
Required bullish trait #2: A decisive break of formidable trendline resistance.
The February 2012 Financial Forecast shows you a historic trendline that has capped the peaks and plugged the bottoms of the Dow for the past 80+ years. Right now, prices are once again putting this line to a meaningful test.
Required bullish trait #3: The "real Dow" (priced in ounces of gold) must NOT be diverging with the nominal Dow (priced in U.S. dollars).
Here, the February 2012 Financial Forecast presents a comparative chart of the "real Dow" vs. the nominal Dow showing whether the two are indeed synchronized to soar.
Required bullish trait #4: Supportive market sentiment readings.
In this section, the new Financial Forecast brings you a chart of the S&P 500 vs. the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey since 2007. Right now, the 4-week moving average of bears vs. bulls shows a new extreme -- a similar extreme we've seen at markets' recent pivotal points. 

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