So far, November's stock market prices are in the plus column.
And October's 10.92% stock market gain was among the best in that month's history. In fact, prices never even saw two consecutive down days.
Yet before you draw any conclusions about what the positive performance in recent weeks means, consider this interesting market fact:
"...the ten largest monthly market gains have all occurred during secular bear markets."
Short Term Update (11/4)
Please note: the October Financial Forecast published at the beginning of the month. That issue stated:
"...stocks will undergo their largest upward retracement since the May 2 highs.”
That's exactly what happened.
As of October 27, the Dow Jones Industrials retraced 73% of the decline which started from that May 2 high. The Wall Street classic Elliott Wave Principle describes the psychology which accompanies such a retracement (p. 80):
"At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the [bull] market is back to stay."
A perusal of financial stories during the October rally revealed a renewed market optimism. And a recent survey shows that an increasing number of investors feel good about stocks (wave labels have been removed from the chart below):
The above chart shows why so many investors so often "get caught" on the wrong side of bear market rallies. And of all times, this juncture may be one of the worst times to "get caught."
So what does our analysis suggest about when the worst of a possible decline may happen?
Well, our Elliott wave count is becoming increasingly clear. And you can take a look at what we're seeing without any risk whatsoever.
Take a look at 3 publications that will give you a complete picture of how we see the market: The Elliott Wave Theorist, Financial Forecast, and Short Term Update.