Do you remember mainstream financial news from back in January and February of this year? It had one clear message: the bear market in US stocks was D-E-A-D. Here, the following headlines from the time say plenty:
- "The Dow should blow right through 12,000 on its way to 14,000." (January 29 Mad Money)
- "Dow Over 12,000 As Remarkable Bull Market Rolls On." (February 2 ABC News)
- "Up, Up, and Away. In view of last week's gains, the Dow could hit 14,000 any day." (February 7 AP)
And, last but not least -- this May 2, 2011 headline:
- "Bull market ain't over." (Christian Science Monitor)
Yet -- that very day, May 2, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned down in a five-month, 20%-plus free fall to one-year lows.
As the financial media was busy going "all in," Elliott Wave International's team of analysts was busy warning subscribers of a soon-to-be-here bearish reversal in stocks.
Take a look at this chart of the DJIA since January 2011 alongside the forecasts from the 3 publications within our comprehensive Financial Forecast Service:
January 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist:
"2011 Should Be A Down Year Across The Board... The market could have a few more pops left. Don't take any further market rise as canceling the clear [bearish] message from all of our work."
February 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:
"Now some readers ask why we won't simply turn bullish on stocks. In our experience, these questions tend to intensify near market highs when we're too far ahead of an important turn. It's critically important to be safely out of the way..."
April 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:
"Conditions for a market high are well established... A strong target for the Dow stands at 12,544-12,661... dead ahead."
May 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:
"The next round of headlines should be about the stock market [declines]."
May 23, 2011 Short Term Update:
"The intermediate support line that has contained the rise from last July was breached. Whether or not there is a near-term snap back, stocks should work lower in the coming weeks."
June 24, 2011 Short Term Update:
"A solid close above the downward sloping channel line... would suggest that stocks have made an interim low and were rising to correct the entire sell off from the May 2 high. In this case, we would expect AT LEAST a 40%-60% retracement of this decline."
July 20, 2011 Short Term Update:
"Wave structure suggests that any remaining rise in this index will be an upward retracement and NOT a major push to a new high. If the Dow declines below its former first wave high, the bears would then start to solidify their ground."
July 21, 2011 Short Term Update:
"It's now possible to count a five-wave rally from the June 15 close to yesterday's close. The minimum requirements for the [end of the rally] have been satisfied."
August 31, 2011 Short Term Update:
"The Dow [is] in the very late stages of the push. The next significant decline should end beneath the August 9 low. Our stance remains bearish."
October 5, 2011 Short Term Update:
"The stock market is deeply oversold. Still one must have other key elements to mark a low: a completed Elliott wave structure and a subsequent increase in investor demand."
October 7, 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:
"The stock market got deeply oversold on October 4, which is consistent with a low. In the [next wave], stocks will undergo their largest upward retracement since..."
Now, we don't share these excerpts to imply that we are always right. You and I know that there isn't a market forecasting service that can make that claim. But we want you to know that while volatility can mean uncertainty to many investors, it can often mean clarity to those watching the Waves. Our analysts are already answering the most pressing questions for investors...
How high are stocks set to fly? Or...are they?
Is the rally off the October bottom a bear-market bounce, or start of a new bull market?
The answers to these questions, and more, are all part of the detailed analysis found in all three Financial Forecast Service publications: Financial Forecast Service, Elliott Wave Theorist, and Short Term Update.
