Over the past week, those resting on the mainstream "LORE"ls that commodities are the ultimate economic safe-haven GOT a very rude awakening: On Friday, September 23, commodities suffered their worst week in four months right alongside plunging stocks and precious metals.
Well, now that the market has your attention, EWI has a brand-new Monthly Futures Junctures to provide objective insight into whether the recent commodities sell-off is a brief, bearish hiccup -- OR here to stay.
In the opening "Featured Market" segment of the latest Monthly Futures Junctures (MFJ, for short), long-time editor and renowned commodities analyst Jeffrey Kennedy presents a compelling historic case study into the bellwether Continuous Commodity Index. There, Jeffrey's 30-year chart of the CCI shows how the markets powerful rally from the 2008 low is actually part of a larger Elliott wave cycle dating back to at least 1980.
If correct, Jeffrey's labeling argues not only for a "months-long" move in the CCI in the weeks to come, but also for the broader index to ultimately visit unexpected "price extremes." In Jeffrey's own words:
"If correct, then evidence should be present in other commodity price charts."
The second half of MFJ's "Featured Market" includes detailed price charts of the big three grain markets -- corn, soybeans, and wheat -- that do, indeed, bolster his overall outlook.
On pp. 6-12, you get "Wave Watch," where Jeffrey shows you 2 Elliott wave-labeled charts of 12 different commodities -- 24 charts total -- each marked with price targets and bold arrows pointing out their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Cocoa: The January 2011 MFJ made this forecast: first, an advance to the 3653 area -- and then a reversal. In early April, cocoa landed smack dab in the middle of its cited target and turned down as anticipated.
After months of sideways consolidation, the August MFJ "Wave Watch" showed a bold arrow pointing DOWN. Now, with prices at a new contract low, the latest MFJ gives you new prices targets.
Coffee: June 2010 MFJ wrote: "... coffee's price could easily double from current levels." From its June 2010 low, coffee more than doubled in a 78% surge to 30-year highs before turning down early this May. Now what?
Lean hogs: Check it out:
· April 2010 MFJ wrote that probabilities favored a top forming near current levels that will lead to a months-long bear market.
Result: Lean hogs turned down from their April peak in 25% sell off -- BUT…
· The July 2010 MFJ saw that the original call for a sustained bear market was premature. A revised forecast called for a large rally above the 2009 peak.
Result: From the November 2011 low, hogs soared 60%, above the 2009 high.