When you look at your life as an investor or trader, you can start to think of it as a marathon, based on a five-wave Elliott wave pattern. We asked our subscribers who read the Weekly Select e-zine to let us know where they thought they were in their own trading and investing marathon. Of the 30 subscribers who responded, 22 placed themselves in the wave pattern. Most of them, 36%, said they were in Wave 3, while 32% said they were in Wave 2. Those in Wave 5 were 14% of our small but enthusiastic sample, while the rest were divided evenly at 9% between Waves 1 and 4. Below you will find some of their comments along with our descriptions of the wave marathon.

 

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Wave 1 – You are at the beginning of this long marathon, where there will be ups and down but the landscape is not really clear yet. Thoughts? "I hope I have the stamina to stay in for the whole race."

 

Wave 2 –You have already run a few miles and started to encounter some corrective hills that slow your pace. "I'm feeling a little wobbly."

 

Blair B.: Although I'm 56 years old and have held investments since I was 25, I feel as though I am in Wave 2, nearing Wave 3 (soon I hope!) regarding my portfolio and investment experience. I'm very happy to say after having followed the EWI folks for the past few years, I'm in much better shape and I'm looking for a breakthrough, even though it appears we're in for a major downturn and bear market, rather than a bull.

 

Damien M.: I would have to say that I would be in wave 2. Started to navigate the landscape and had no idea where I was heading, met some small corrections with a little bit of an uphill tick and now feeling a little shaky, not knowing if I can make it to the end of the marathon. Remaining optimistic and hoping that it all works out.

Richard S.: In Wave 2, working to put everything in place for my futures trading so that only tweaking is required (no significant drawdowns or mistakes) to take me to Wave 3.   Keeping it simple, complete, effective, and time efficient.

 

Konstantinos P: I have already examined (a little) my life in a big wave structure case. But your article helps me to look more specifically. For example, my investing or trading life, in a fast personal look, seems to be running the wave 2 (in my trading life as 5 waves) or running A grand cycle or B major or X major. I will see it in more details later.
Thank you for your motivation.

 

Wave 3 – You are well into the race now and have adjusted to the pace. "I feel great, life is grand, and nothing can stop me."

Keith P.: Having been a subscriber to EWFF, STU, EWT and Socionomist for a few years, your request proved to be a thought-provoking mental exercise. ...Wave 1 offered a refreshing new investment approach and gratifying intellectual reward along with enough financial incentive to be able to endure and implement the necessary disciplinary lessons made available by Wave 2. Wobbly is a good word for how Wave 2 made me feel. The studious combination of Waves 1 and 2 have made Wave 3 a reality and solidified the confidence vital to believing what the Wave Principle is revealing.

While the losses are inevitable, thanks to the Wave Principle they are limited. The more I learn and apply the trading techniques taught by EWI, the less emotional uncertainty is involved, which diminishes the losses while increasing the winnings. I am fairly confident my trading is in the early stages of Wave 3....

Mary N.: I'm at the beginning of my own personal wave 3. Wave 1 started in 2003, when I started reading non-typical financial advice such as yours. Wave 2, life happened. Now enter wave 3, I'm confident because I understand more and have chosen brilliant investors/specialists to be on my "board of directors," so I can continue on with other aspects of my life. I'm committed and ready. Bring it!

Tom C.: The timing was perfect. The family sold the farm and the kids received a great windfall. It was enough, one would think, to catch some breathing room and if one played his cards right, possibly have much more leisurely later years. I'm 60. This, I guess, [was] wave 1, at least as far as my investing career is concerned. 

 

A friend of my sister works for an investor selling options, so his office deals in all kinds of investment vehicles. "You have to make your money work for you." It has to be "diversified" they said, so I put the money in this, that and the other thing. Still in wave 1. I was kind of a gold bug also, so I put some money in gold, also with the help of a friend of my own, whose father is a major gold bug. Things were looking great. I was just at a millionaire, just barely, but looking ahead to losing that status when tax time came around, which wasn't for another year, almost. ... Then the bust. Wave 2, I suppose. 

 

Well, I started reading Elliott wave and (unfortunately this is not a success story -- not yet anyway) I was panicking that things were going so south. I ended up losing a bundle with a stock broker who claimed, "I can at least outperform the market." Ever the optimist, he had no idea how to maneuver a bear market and I, caught in this gambler's paradigm, didn't have the smarts to bail on the thing. ...  I had taxes to pay, so I sold most of my gold, not losing, but only gaining 6-8% on what would have ended up being 100% or nearly so. 2nd wave AAAAA-IIIIIIIIII-EEEEEEEE! Still falling. Tried to get out of a REIT, but they wouldn't let me take my money out. They did end up allowing a certain % for withdrawal eventually, after reducing the share price by 20%! I am self-employed and business went sliding with that '08 drop. The perfect maelstrom....

 
Which brings me to what I am interpreting as my 3rd wave and where I am right now. I have learned a little about the wave theory and social mood, just enough to be dangerous, I guess.... Anyway, I'm hoping my third wave turns out to be the longest and the strongest.

Henry M.: Early in Wave 3. I made a lot in Wave 1, lost a bit in Wave 2, am looking to make quite a bit in Wave 3. I have learned [Elliott wave analysis], used it for over 30 years, do my own wave counts, but always check with EWI to see if I missed anything. I stay on the sidelines unless I am confident -- then I bet a lot.

Tom B: I had the same idea years ago. You can just plot your accumulated gains in a graph, and you should be able to see the wave pattern. That is what kept me going when I was in wave 2. The psychology is to quit, but when you can see the wave pattern so clearly, it was reassuring to anticipate the turning point and the start of wave 3. I wonder how many stop and quit at the bottom of wave 2? Perhaps wave 2 is "the price we have to pay" to show that we are committed and determined before we get the prize of beginning wave 3. I am not that far into wave 3, but of course I'm already measuring wave 1 and trying to gauge the size of wave 3, hoping for extensions and what have you :-) Just a note from the traveler, on his way.   

 

Wave 4 – You know the end is almost near, but ... "Even though my feet are moving, I feel I'm going nowhere in this long sideways correction."

 

Wave 5– You are mentally and physically exhausted, but ... "Glad I’ve made it and looking for a correction. Retirement is next."

Kelly H.: I think I'm in stage 5. I began following the Kondratieff hypothesis way back in the eighties. Then I learned of Prechter ... and began to see the recession coming in 2002, shifting some money into gold and silver. I had a general understanding of the Elliott wave and even more recently I became a subscriber, getting a copy of the Elliott Wave Principle and understanding Socionomic principles as well. Holding a Ph.D. in economics, I have nevertheless been skeptical of many aspects of economic theory. So Socionomics makes great sense to me.

 

Tom O.:  I am at retirement and hoping our government doesn't mess up my package. I am still investing in the market and some corporate debt, but nothing of a higher risk than usual. Wave five probably best represents me.

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We can help you decide what your next best move is.

Wave 1-Wave 2: If you think you want to get used to the idea of wave analysis and you're in Wave 1 or 2 of your own trading and investing marathon, then please consider signing up for Club EWI where you will find many free educational resources.

 

Wave 3- Wave 5: If you are into Wave 3 and beyond already, then we have two good options. One is our Education site, where we keep lots of resources that you can purchase to help advance your Elliott wave education.

 

You might also be ready to subscribe to one of our financial forecasting services.