Month number eight has seen an ugly fate for the world's leading equity markets. So far, it's been the worst August for US stocks in 13 years.
YET -- while the financial storm has ravaged stock values, several popular commodity markets have actually strengthened amidst the tumult. Over the last year, the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has soared 20% versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average's paltry 5.5% gain over the same period.
So, the burning question is this: Should the financial salvo continue, which commodities will provide shelter -- and which ones will get sucked into the rout?
Hot off the virtual presses, EWI's August/September 2011 Monthly Futures Junctures steps in with comprehensive insight into the long-term trends underway in these favored foods and meats:
The opening "Featured Market" segment of Monthly Futures Junctures showcases not one, but two markets: coffee and soybeans. Here, long-time editor and EWI's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy presents written analysis and Elliott wave labeled price charts since 2008. Jeffrey then tells you whether wave patterns in both markets confirm one major move in one shared direction.
On pp. 6-12, you get "Wave Watch," where Jeffrey shows you 2 Elliott wave-labeled charts of 12 different commodities -- 24 charts total -- each marked with price targets and bold arrows pointing out their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Cocoa: The January 2011 Monthly Futures Junctures made this forecast: first, an advance to the 3653 area -- and then a reversal. In early April, cocoa landed smack dab in the middle of its cited target and turned down as anticipated. Now, the new Monthly Futures Junctures gives you new prices targets.
Coffee: June 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures wrote: "... coffee's price could easily double from current levels." From its June 2010 low, coffee more than doubled in a 78% surge to 30-year highs before turning down early this May. Now what?
Sugar: Despite a bullish "fundamental" backdrop of high demand, low supply and adverse weather, the February 2011 Monthly Futures Junctures saw sugar's winning streak ending and wrote: "Let's not sugarcoat it. Wave patterns in sugar call for the current sell off from the February peak to continue.” In early May, sugar hit its target beneath the November low. Now that prices are orbiting an all-time high, MFJ has the sweet new details.
Lean hogs: Check it out:
· April 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures wrote that probabilities favored a top forming near current levels that will lead to a months-long bear market.
Result: Lean hogs turned down from their April peak in 25% sell off -- BUT…
· The July 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures saw that the original call for a sustained bear market was premature. A revised forecast called for a large rally above the 2009 peak.
Result: From the November 2011 low, hogs soared 60%, above the 2009 high.
The new, August-September Monthly Futures Junctures also gives you forecasts for 7 more commodities and an illuminating "Traders Classroom" lesson on how to find high-probability trade set-ups.