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Home > Socionomics
Higher Education: Will It Soon Face "Spectacular Challenges to Survival"?
The Socionomist shows you why "higher education is about to hit a patch of trouble"

By Nathaniel Williams
Wed, 24 Aug 2011 09:00:00 ET
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For college students (or their parents), August means one thing: Time to pay tuition. That's no easy feat when college tuition has more than tripled since 1981, even after you adjust for inflation. How do self-proclaimed "broke" students pay the tab?

I'm not that far removed from college, so my memory is still pretty fresh: Paying for school was not my favorite part of the collegiate experience. Not by a long shot. More often than not I had to resort to student loans.

I'm not alone. The February Socionomist (read it for free here) reports that since 1997, the dollar amount of student loans has skyrocketed more than 800 percent -- to a level that surpassed total U.S. credit card debt for the first time in 2010. That's dangerous territory.

What does this mean? Researcher Alan Hall examined this and host of additional education-related data in the February Socionomist. He came to this conclusion:

"America's higher education business is about to hit a patch of trouble. It is in the late stages of a bubble, one that is credit-fueled, government-supported and widely popular.

"A massive shift in society's attitudes toward education is beginning, as we shall see. If it continues in earnest, as we expect, educational institutions will soon encounter spectacular challenges to survival."

The implications of Hall's analysis are far-reaching, and should alarm anyone with a stake in education. And in a follow-up this June, The Socionomist reports that the bubble might already be bursting. Here's an excerpt about the early signs (emphasis added):

"As Alan Hall anticipated in the February 2011 issue of The Socionomist, we are beginning to see weakness in the inflationary psychology supporting the student loan bubble. Using Yale tuition prices as a proxy for tuition prices in general… Hall identified a complete five-wave advance, suggesting that tuition prices were ripe for a correction. As that issue went to press, University of the South, a private university in Sewanee, Tennessee, announced a 10% reduction in its $46,000 tuition, effective this fall. The decision, which a university spokesperson describes as 'bold' and 'risky,' is unique so far among the top tier of U.S. News and World Report's rankings of liberal arts colleges. With fewer students able to pay full freight and more choosing state-subsidized public universities, Sewanee's vice chancellor explained that 'given the realities of higher education in the current economy, we believe that some college or university needs to step up and say, "Enough....'"

"As predicted in The Socionomist, a shift in the attitude that created the skyrocketing student loan debt levels is now prompting questions about whether education is worth the price. A May 2011 study from the PewResearchCenter illustrated the dichotomy. A majority of survey participants opined that American colleges are too expensive and fail to provide students with good value. Of the record number of students leaving college with substantial debt burdens, about half report struggling to pay other bills because of their student loans. Thirty-eight percent of the college presidents participating in the Pew survey say the higher education system in this country is headed in the wrong direction."

What's next for the education bubble? More importantly, what does it mean for you? The June Socionomist brings you up to speed and shows you exactly what's on the horizon.

Plus you'll get the details about other developments in the higher education bubble -- none of which surprised readers of The Socionomist. It's critical information for educators, students, parents or anyone else with a stake in higher education.

Most people will be surprised by what's next. You don't have to be. Get the complete issue on your screen in minutes.


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Tags: socionomics, The Socionomist
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