The aftermath of the London riots will include lots of debate among politicians and pundits about what "caused" the rampant looting and violence. The all-too predictable focus of the debate will be on one incident -- when police fatally shot an allegedly armed criminal suspect. But footage of the unrest shows looters across the spectrum of age, race, and gender -- often causing mayhem, and without much care for Mark Duggan's untimely death.
In a lot of Op-Ed columns, one can already detect a theme of "angry, bored, disaffected youths" -- Labourites will go on to bemoan recent budget cuts, underperforming schools and racial tensions, while Tories will chime in on the breakdown of law & order. Even those who get close to the truth will still miss the mark. The fact is that any explanation that focuses on events will get the causality backwards.
When we think socionomically, we know the answer to the question "Why are people rioting in London?" does not start with the event. Yes, the police shooting appeared to be the spark that brought a large group of people to the streets in violent protest. But we back up a step and ask, "Why now?" Why was this the time when people reacted en masse to perceived injustices? Why did the behavior of immense crowds soon turn violent in ways that have nothing to do with the original event?
Robert Prechter and his team of analysts have been studying the effects of negative social mood on events for over 20 years. Their groundbreaking publication --
The Socionomist -- helps subscribers better understand the connection between mood and the markets.
We want you to put the predictive power of socionomics to work for you -- so you can stay one step ahead of social change.
Take, for example, this excerpt from the April 2009 issue of
The Socionomist:
Unrest, Riots and Civil Protest
In October 2003, [Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist] forecasted that “mass demonstrations, expressing anger with some social situation,” would occur during the Grand Supercycle bear market.
In February, as mood approached its temporary nadir worldwide, a student group seized a New York University building and demanded that the administration release details of the school’s budget. That same month in England, students protested against tuition fees and Israel’s activities in Gaza.
More serious waves of riotous behavior swept through the Caribbean islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique in February. Thousands of people stormed the streets and brought the nations to a standstill in a general revolt against the affluent ruling class.
Destructive manifestations of negative mood appeared elsewhere:
While youths in Athens protest by throwing Molotov cocktails, in Paris by toppling barricades, and in Budapest by hurling eggs at politicians, protesters in Berlin rage at their economic plight by targeting the most expensive cars—symbols of German wealth and power. (Bloomberg, February 27, 2009)
In April, more than 10,000 young Moldovians coordinated an attack on government buildings and the country’s communist leadership. The April protests at the G20 summit in London are yet another manifestation of negative social mood. The seeds of public protest also have germinated in the United States. A national grassroots anti-tax movement seems to be developing, as tens of thousands of Americans took part in tax day “tea parties” on April 15. Tax revolts also occurred during the Great Depression, the bear market years of the 1970s and, most famously, the long-term bear market of 1720-1784, which culminated in the American Revolution.
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