Home > European Markets
Europe: The Bear Market Thunders Back... for How Long?
Inside EWI's latest, August European Financial Forecast...
 |
 |
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
Fri, 05 Aug 2011 19:00:00 ET |
|
|
Do you remember when the European debt crisis began to make headlines?
It seems like it's been with us forever. But as EWI's August European Financial Forecast points out, the crisis began "21 months ago in Greece and Italy," as their respective stock markets topped.
That's a hugely important point. The Greek debt crisis began after Greek stocks had topped, which confirms again what we often say here at EWI: Stocks lead the economy, not the other way around, despite what the conventional financial model says.
Therefore, if you want to know what's next for the European debt crisis, you need to know where European stocks will go in the weeks and months ahead.
In the August issue:
- What's common for Greek, Italian, Spanish, Swiss, Euro Stoxx and French stocks? Like dominos, they followed each other in the topping process over the past two years. The opening section of the August European Financial Forecast explains the implications of that.
- FTSE and DAX: At the February 21 high of 6105, the FTSE had retraced 80% of the 2007-2009 decline. At its equivalent high of 7600 on May 2, the DAX marked an 88% retracement. Both rallies have been strong, and each complies with Elliott’s rules of wave formation. Find out what the next wave in this formation is likely to be.
- European Banks: BPI, one of Portugal’s biggest investment banks, is one of countless European banks whose stock prices have broken through their March 2009 lows. Did the declines complete the bear market -- or re-open the door to it? Learn in this month's expanded "Market Psychology" section.
- Market Spotlight: Italy, Spain and the Euro: The fates of these three markets are intricately intertwined. Get our take on it.
- Economy Spotlight: British economists expressed relief at the UK’s recent surprise dip in consumer prices -- and say this indicates that inflation is less of a threat than they feared. Find out what Elliott wave analysis suggests for Europe's inflation/deflation debate.
Tap into these insights right now via a RISK-FREE, instant-access subscription to The European Financial Forecast Service. Subscribe today, and you'll also get instant access to the still-valuable July 2011 European Financial Forecast.