For more than 100 years, social science has claimed that a group of people is smarter than its individuals. The idea is known as the "wisdom of crowd effect."
Yet observation shows that crowds often make very un-wise decisions. From the presidential advisory group that encouraged JFK to invade the Bay of Pigs, to the tech bubble that made Pets.com seem like a good investment, to the recent Vancouver hockey riots that left 140 injured, the endless examples of bad decisions by crowds make groups appear more mad than wise!
Now, new research shows you why: It's because they herd.
You get the details in the new Socionomist. In short, "the wisdom of crowd effect" does exist -- as long as a crowd's members do not interact. As soon as members know what other members think, they cease to act independently. They begin to follow what the group does, even to their detriment.
The Socionomist presents the hard evidence about when the wisdom of crowd effect truly happens. It outlines the perils of herding, including the narrowing of the core ranges of a group's opinions and the increased confidence levels in estimates. It also connects the dots to what happens every day on Wall Street.
Plus, the new Socionomist gets you up to speed with the latest developments in the education bubble and the heightening battle over authoritarian impulses around the world -- and then spells out what you should expect next. Here's a sample:
- The alarming facts about total student loan debt, which surpassed credit card debt for the first time in 2010 -- and is poised to top $1 trillion in 2011. How long will this "education-at-any-cost" mindset last?
- The University of the South in Tennessee announced a 10% reduction in tuition for fall 2011; Paypal co-founder Peter Thiel plans to award $100,000 grants to 20 young entrepreneurs if they drop out of college. Discover why these developments were no surprise to readers of The Socionomist.
- Indebted, underemployed graduates are starting blogs, recording scathing documentaries, initiating hunger strikes and filing lawsuits against their alma maters. But these are not disgruntled frat boys -- in fact, they are law students. Is there hope for anything other than an "unhappy resolution"?
- Government actions against Wikileaks grabbed a few headlines in recent months. But the moves were not isolated. For example: Did you know the level of domestic intelligence surveillance in the U.S. increased "by every available measure" in 2010? Find out what you should expect next -- and what it means for you.
- Whistleblowers Daniel Ellsberg and Julian Assange: The media has cited obvious parallels between the two on the 40th anniversary of the Pentagon Papers -- but pundits miss one parallel that you need socionomic insight to see. Find out what it is inside.
- China already blocks Facebook, Twitter and YouTube -- yet they're taking further steps to ensure "a greater degree of comfort that everything is under control." Discover what that means, in the context of new manifestations of Internet censorship in the U.S. and U.K.
- Hacker group Lulzsec attacked the CIA and Sony, and released confidential Arizona Department of Public Safety documents. The March 2010 Socionomist warned subscribers to expect "cyber attacks to become both more prevalent and increasingly vicious." Now, the new Socionomist tells you what you can expect next in this disturbing trend.
- Discover 3 specific examples of government controls from the 1970s that are reemerging today.
- Find out what new development on the horizon could be a "tipping point" precipitating for governments' loss of control of the economy -- and why they will try to stop it.
Put yourself one step ahead of the trend with The Socionomist, and be prepared for social changes few see coming.
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