You may have heard or read in the media about what would happen to the U.S. dollar if China and Japan (the two biggest creditors of the United States) reduce their U.S. Treasury purchases, and/or dump their vast portfolios of U.S. bonds.
This topic makes for a fascinating discussion -- lots of "what ifs," complete with long-winded expert commentary; you can pass plenty of time that way. Interestingly, though, you often see the experts argue both sides. That shouldn't surprise you. As EWI's president Robert Prechter once put it,
"There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same 'fundamental' news event -- a war, the level of interest rates, the P/E ratio, GDP reports, the President’s economic policy, the Fed’s monetary policy, you name it -- and come up with countless opposing conclusions."
Also, these experts rarely show you a chart. Which is too bad, because a simple chart can quickly put an end to a "fundamental" discussion of various "what ifs."
Every issue of our own M-W-F Short Term Update is full of charts. Here's one that stood out to me in the May 2 Update. Says the editor Steve Hochberg:
"… don't forget the threat that we're constantly warned about with respect to China and Japan: 'If foreigners dump their Treasury holdings, the dollar will cave.' Yet the dollar has been declining since at least January and foreigners have increased their U.S. Treasury holdings to an all-time record $2.675 trillion."
"If buying Treasuries does not make the dollar rise, why would selling Treasuries make the dollar decline? We have yet to see a consistent or significant correlation between foreign holding of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar's direction."
For more insights like that, try The Short Term Update risk-free today, as part of our most popular subscription package, The Financial Forecast Service. You also get instant online access to the new, May issue of the monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Details >>