Here's what EWI's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Interim Report told subscribers on March 23, 2009:
"In the March 2009 issue of The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, we showed how pattern, price, time and sentiment considerations were pointing to the end of multi-month, five-wave declines in most major Asian-Pacific indexes by late March. In most cases, those lows have likely been achieved."
The Interim Report went on to describe the extent of the expected rally for the region, using India's SENSEX index as an example.
Since then Asian-Pacific stocks have had a very good run indeed. Now, after an average gain of 182% (in USD) among the 21 regional markets, it's prudent to step back and ask: How much life remains in this rally?
In this issue:
Special Section: Market Tops -- How Do They Form? "Stock market tops tend to be rolling affairs," explains Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski. He compares the topping process in the Asian-Pacific region in 2007-2008 with the price action we see today. Are they any similarities? See the charts of the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index vs. Bangladesh's Dhaka SE General Index to find out.
Mongolia: Mongolia’s dramatic rally attracted a lot of attention in recent months, yet since February the Mongolian Stock Exchange Top 20 Index has sold off just as dramatically. See our weekly Elliott wave-labeled chart of the index to learn what most likely is next.
India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, Philippines and Thailand: Normally, you don't see these seemingly disparate markets lumped together. But now, one important feature in their respective Elliott wave counts unites them -- with big implications for the trend from here. See their 8 labeled charts to understand more.
China: The Shanghai Composite has spent nearly two years in a sideways consolidation. Shanghai’s P/E ratio has fallen to near record lows. Sentiment indicators are hardly positive. China's weekly new brokerage account openings are down. Conclusion? It's probably not what you think. Find out more from the Elliott wave-labeled charts in the "China" section. (Japan, Australia and New Zealand are in a similar boat, too -- don't miss their respective sections.)
Cultural Trends: Bin Laden's Assassination -- A Socionomic Look. Years of investigation and planning eventually led to the killing of the world's #1 terrorist. But another factor was likely at work, namely social mood. You'll understand more when you see bin Laden's acts plotted on the chart of the Karachi Stock Exchange index.
Tap into these insights now via a risk-free, instant-access subscription to The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service. (You also get instant access to the still-valuable April 2011 issue.) Details >>