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Home > Asian Markets
Asian-Pacific Markets: From High-Flyers to China
An Asian-Pacific Forecast and Performance Update

By Bob Stokes
Tue, 10 May 2011 18:15:00 ET
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Two years ago, the April 2009 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast was referring to most of the region when the monthly publication stated:
 
"...all the pieces are in place to support a multi-month rally."
 
Successful market forecasts look evident in hindsight. But keep in mind, the MSCI Asia Index had just lost over 60 percent, so there was definitely no certainty about a "multi-month rally." The financial world had been flirting with so-called "financial Armageddon."
 
As scary as that time was, our analysts kept their eye on the ball -- the Elliott wave structure of the region's markets. And at that time, the structure was signaling an upward move. 

How did that forecast turn out? Let's review by looking at the table below which is shown in the just published May 2011 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast:

 

The market performances are clearly strong, especially for the top few markets in the table.
 
The Dhaka SE General Index (Bangladesh) topped in late 2010, and has fallen as much as 42% off its peak. Likewise the Mongolian Stock Exchange, Top 20 Index has also had a dramatic sell-off since it topped in February. Mongolian stocks have tumbled up to 37% from their peak.
 
Sri Lanka has been another high flyer. The Colombo All-Shares Index has fallen below its uptrend line, and the latest Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast comments on its price action since:
 
"...the sideways action since the index exited its trend channel gives us pause. It may suggest the correction may turn complex..."
 
China is often referred to as the "Sleeping Dragon." And you might say the price action of the Shanghai Composite during the past couple of years has been in sleep mode. While the Shanghai's peak percentage gain since March 23, 2009 was 49%, the April APFF characterizes its price movement:
 
"The Shanghai Composite's nearly two-year-old sideways consolidation should eventually resolve..."
 
The latest Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast goes on to suggest how the Shanghai's consolidation will resolve itself.
 
As you enjoy your risk-free read of the Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, you'll also benefit from our analysis of the "high-flyers" we discussed as well as other markets. Packed with 19 market charts and in-depth commentary, the analysis will reveal the unfolding Asian-Pacific financial story. Moreover, the analysis is useable now.
 
APFF editor Mark Galasiewski has traveled Asia, and spent time living there in the 1990s. He is fluent in Japanese and conversant in Mandarin Chinese. He knows the region, and is an expert Elliott wave analyst. Mark's analysis in the just published Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast is comprehensive, and you may enjoy reading this valuable publication risk-free by following this link.

Tags: ASX All Ordinaries, Bank of Japan, Chinese markets, Elliott wave, emerging markets, Nikkei, Shanghai Composite Index, Taiwan index
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