In peripheral European stock markets, such as the PIIGS eurozone nations, the rally off the March 2009 low unfolded in near-textbook Elliott waves.
But "core Europe" has been another story. In the Eurostoxx 50, DAX, FTSE 100 and CAC 40, rallies from the 2009 low have exceeded typical Elliott wave targets.
Our European Financial Forecast editor Brian Whitmer thinks about this dilemma scientifically: he looks at the available evidence, beginning with long-term Elliott wave counts that going back to 1900.
Also in the issue:
Market Psychology: “This bull market will thunder further forward,” says a prominent market historian in an April Financial Times. “Forget 'Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s day,'” writes an FT columnist, “July may be the time to return to market.” Pundits of all stripes now seem to focus overwhelmingly on only one side of the market: the upside. Does their military-like lockstep mean that investors should fall in with them? We examine the evidence and give you our answers.
True Finns' Victory: Tea Partiers in the United States, take note: Voter disgust with the state of the European Union has just made Finland’s radical True Finns the country’s third-largest political party. This surprising victory has many in Europe concerned (or elated) that populist anger will end Europe’s bailout era. But there is one factor, from an Elliott wave perspective, that is crucially important for the bailout era to end. Read more in the section "The Eurozone Bailouts: Finn-ished?"
Market Spotlight: EUR/USD. The euro-dollar exchange rate approached the $1.50 market again recently, and with that, the opinions that the U.S. dollar is finally finished have become more vocal. But you may be surprised to learn that from an Elliott wave viewpoint, the lopsided bullishness towards the euro and the EUR/USD wave pattern, among other factors, may soon surprise the dollar skeptics. See our full analysis for details.
Europe's Real Estate: In July 2008, EWI published a 15-page special report that called for significant declines in British real estate values. See the updated chart that shows the development of real estate’s wave structure since his report -- and gives a forecast for the next move.
Cultural Trends: BRIC Billionaires. The number of billionaires from emerging BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has surpassed those in Europe for the first time ever. The rich are again driving up prices of elite real estate, but as EWI observed over the past 10 years, the behavior of the ultra-wealthy can also help investors steer clear of the mania-era’s impending disasters. Read more in the "Cultural Trends" section.