It's a subject we at EWI have written a lot about, but it's as relevant as ever: Fear that rising oil prices are bad for the stock market is a total myth.
It's a persistent one, too. See, like most "fundamentally"-based arguments, it just makes sense. As EWI's president Robert Prechter puts it, "it feels true, so it must be true." That's why, on days when the stock market stays flat or declines and oil rallies, you see headlines like these:
- Stock gains capped by oil rise to 30-month high (April 4, Seattle Post Intelligencer)
- Stocks Teeter as Traders Weigh Climbing Oil (April 4, Fox Business)
To see these claims for what they are, simply compare stocks and oil on a chart. Our subscribers saw this one in our February 25 Short Term Update:
As this chart shows, the argument linking rising oil as the cause for falling stocks has been demonstrably false over the prior 23 months. Since the first quarter of 2009, oil has tripled while stocks have doubled.
By the way, mainstream analysts blame the latest oil spike above $108 on the continued fighting in Libya. Funny, but when oil fell 10% in one week on March 7-14 -- despite the same "bad news" from Libya we see today -- no one mentioned the Middle East. Why? Because the market action didn't fit the news.
And that's just the problem with "fundamentally"-based market explanations: They only "work" when the markets act like they are "supposed to": rally on good news and fall on bad.
You have an alternative: technical analysis. EWI's intensive Energy Specialty Service uses objective Elliott wave analysis to forecast oil prices. The Service has been bullish on oil since before Libya's fighting began.
How will crude oil's next move affect you?
EWI's intensive forecasting service for oil, nat. gas and other global energy markets has you covered from intraday to long-term. Subscribe now to get expert forecasts and analysis complete with trade targets and key levels.
Plus, you'll also get hundreds of dollars worth of extras absolutely FREE with your subscription including videos, webinars, educational resources and more. Learn more about EWI's Energy Specialty Service now.