While German and British shares have advanced strongly in 2010-2011, peripheral European markets -- Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece (the proverbial PIIGS nations) -- have trended lower. Even France's CAC 40 and pan-European Eurostoxx 50 sit today where they did in late 2009, 18 months ago.
And a careful observer -- like Brian Whitmer, The European Financial Forecast editor -- would see subtle signs that even the DAX and FTSE are not on as solid a footing as the mainstream analysis say. Consumer confidence in the UK, for example, has just dipped below its March 2009 low.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Despite the panicky selling after the Japanese tsunami, the FTSE failed to break below a certain key support price level that Brian Whitmer has been watching intently. There is a similarly important support level in the German DAX, too. Find out what they are, and what the market's failure to break below them suggests for the near-term trend.
Market Psychology Analysis: For every European country near default, a dozen analysts stand ready to declare it to be Europe’s "last casualty." When Portugal’s government collapsed last month, the European Competition Commissioner said there was “no risk” to Spain. But to us, Elliott wave patterns in the Spanish IBEX and Portuguese PSI stock indexes look eerily similar; see our charts to understand what we mean. In this section, you also get our latest commentary on Europe's Daily Sentiment Index readings, volatility, consumer sentiment and much more.
Market Spotlight: Swiss Market Index. Like the Eurostoxx 50, Swiss equities have traced gradually-sloping, three-wave rallies since early July. But unlike Europe, the rally fell short of reaching its equivalent mid-April 2010 price peak. Learn what that Elliott wave development suggests for the Swiss equities.
Bailouts: What's Your "Magic Number"? See our chart of the 10-year borrowing costs in Greece, Ireland and Portugal that shows a specific percentage that may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. It was only after their borrowing costs exceeded that level that Greek and Irish authorities activated their bailout packages. Portuguese 10-year bond yields have also just crossed over. Learn what that "magic number" is, and what it implies for Portugal.
Cultural Trends: Ireland. Nearly 25% of Ireland’s 18-24 year-olds plan to leave the country in the next 12 months. That's bigger than the mass exodus of the late 1980s. Get our detailed analysis of Europe's future immigration trends through the lens of socionomics, the new science of social prediction based on the Elliott Wave Principle.