On Sunday February 27, at an Academy Awards viewing party, I googled "black swan" to find out who the director of the best-picture nominee was. The second result was a Wikipedia entry on "Black Swan Theory" that read:
"This is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that the event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight."
In my experience, this sounds a lot like mainstream financial analysis; ergo, a certain market undergoes a dramatic turn and the usual experts explain the move post-factum via some external event.
Case in point: The recent news items surrounding the U.S. bond market. Starting in early February, the long-dated securities sector was undergoing its longest slump since 2008. The 10-year Treasury note yield had soared 130 basis points from its October trough to hit a nine-and-a-half month high, while prices (which move opposite yields) were in losing streak central.
And, according to the usual suspects, the big "fundamental" arrow in bond prices would continue to point DOWN. Here, the following news items from February 4-11 fill in the blanks:
- "Bond prices fall... amid robust economic data and concern about inflation, which eats into bonds' fixed returns over time. Yields will likely grind higher..." (Bloomberg)
- "Treasuries fall after US unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The overall tone of economic data has been positive and the market is acknowledging that. Rates have no where to go but up." (Associated Press)
- "Treasury's Sink, Extending Rout The tone for the Treasury market is so negative that it doesn't take much news to tip the scale to higher yields. It is like a hot knife cutting through butter." (Wall Street Journal)
Yet, on February 9, yields on 10-year T-notes turned down in a sustained, three-week long sell off, while bond prices went higher. Long AFTER the market's reversal, the mainstream flock is now shedding some very dark feathers. To wit: One February 28 source offered this insight into the sudden rally in bond prices/fall in yields:
"Treasury yield extended declines after falling for three straight weeks as unrest in Libya drove investors to the safety of US debt and raised concern that higher oil prices will dent the economic recovery."
In other words, up until February 9, the U.S. bond market conveniently ignored all the Mid-Eastern turmoil that had been underway since January -- like, say the civil uprisings and downfalls of the Egyptian and Tunisian governments. That's one bird's eye view of the matter.
As for an objective viewpoint that foresaw the recent bond market rally BEFORE it occurred -- Elliott Wave International's Short Term Update earns my award for "best performance." On the very day of the market's high, the February 9 Short Term Update presented a bullish chart of iShares Lehman 20+ year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) versus Daily Sentiment Index since April 2010 and wrote:
"Bond Prices Approaching A Low. The DSI (care of trade-futures.com) percentage of bulls fell to 6% yesterday. That's lower than either of two big lows shown on this chart. In fat, it's the lowest reading since 2006, when 30 year Treasuries were earning about 50 basis points more than they are now. The decline is an extended fifth wave move that should end soon. Its continued push has carried into our support range. Look for the low to hold here. The market has plenty of fuel for a multi-week rally."