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Home > Commodities
Orange Juice Futures: Flash-Freeze Fundamentals
EWI's chief commodity analyst reveals the near term trend underway in OJ

By Nico Isaac
Wed, 15 Dec 2010 14:15:00 ET
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According to mainstream economic wisdom, fundamentals are to financial markets what flash-freezing is to citrus farming. Ipso Facto: The moment a certain piece of bullish or bearish data is released to the public, it's plucked off its media branch, put on ice, and preserved for all future news stories regarding the rise -- or fall -- in said market's prices.
That's the theory, anyway. The reality is usually a lot different and goes something like this: The moment a certain piece of bullish or bearish data is released, it's plucked off its media branch -- and has about a 24-hour shelf life before expiring.
Case in point, the recent news stories regarding Orange Juice futures. On December 13, a blistering cold front in the Southeast United States caused Florida's Governor to declare a, "state of emergency" among the state's orange groves -- due to the "threat of severe crop damage." And, as far as the usual experts could see, the falling temperatures meant ever-rising OJ prices. Here, these news items fill in the blanks:
  • "Cold Weather Puts OJ Futures A Play." (Barrons)
  • "OJ Futures Leap On Fears Of Freeze. Prices can spike, there's no doubt about that." (Wall Street Journal)
  • "OJ Futures Rose To 3-Year High... as freezing weather increased the prospect of crop damage in Florida. It is a crisis situation. We will be in a feverish salvage operation. It's like a hurricane." (Associated Press)
Yet -- two days later (and none the warmer), OJ futures turned down from their three-year peak in a powerful sell-off to two-week lows. Before you could say "Minute Maid," -- the supposed "cold crisis" among Florida's citrus growers had melted away. See: "OJ Extends Fall As Florida's Frost Damage Concern Eases." (December 15 Bloomberg)
(OJ's Next Big Move: The current Daily Futures Junctures presents in-depth analysis, labeled price charts, and video commentary on the near-term trend underway in orange juice. Get the complete story today, absolutely risk-free.)
Now, drink this in. In the December 14 Daily Futures Junctures, editor and EWI's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy warned that OJ futures' next move would be to the downside. There, he presented the following Elliott wave labeled chart of the market alongside this timely message:
"The expanded flat scenario appears to be coming to pass... If so, the stage is set for a decline."
[
An expanded flat Elliott wave pattern is a three-wave price move labeled A-B-C where wave B ends beyond the starting point of wave A. Usually, wave C follows suit and terminates above the end of wave A.
The question now is -- is the recent dip in OJ a minor blip, or the start of something larger? The December 14 Daily Futures Junctures has that answer, and more. Sign up for a risk-free Futures Junctures Service subscription today.

Tags: futures trading, futures trading, supply and demand, technical analysis, trading lessons
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