As a self-professed music nerd, I've always got some random tune or another stuck in my head. On my drive home from Thanksgiving dinner in Asheville, NC, my radio was struggling to hold a signal, so I drove in silence for a while.
In the sound vacuum my mind filled up with plans for the holiday weekend. I wanted to see some live bands perform in Athens, GA and maybe hit some Black Friday sales. I was feeling optimistic about holiday debauchery and bargain shopping madness.
Cue song "stuck in my head": Steely Dan's Black Friday.
I'm sure that since the song's 1975 debut, listeners know that the lyrics pertain to the aftermath of a financial market crash. After all, you don't have to know much about markets to recognize this imagery:
"When Black Friday comes
"I'll stand down by the door
"And catch the grey men when they
"Dive from the fourteenth floor."
I always thought the lyrics referred to the events of October 1929. But thanks to the miracle of the Internet this morning, I now know that the phrase originally described a September Friday in 1869 during a failed attempt to corner the gold market (similar to the Hunt brothers' failed attempt in silver in early 1980).
If I'm reading the old photo of that day's chalkboard quotes correctly, from an intraday peak of 162 1/2, gold plunged to 133 -- a drop of roughly 18% in a few hours. An equivalent break today would see gold plunge about $250 between breakfast and lunch.
The first use of "Black Friday" to describe the shopping event is attributed to police in Philadelphia in 1966, who used the phrase in the face of day-after-Thanksgiving crowds that flocked to shopping districts. Later came its "in-the-black vs. red" meaning for retailers.
What bothers me is the complete loss of recognition for the original significance of "Black Friday."
These days it's all about something good -- shopping and bargains and the start of the holiday season: Where has the darkness gone? You know, the ruined suits throwing themselves out of windows in the Steely Dan song? Scores of other unfortunate Friday events throughout history?
Apparently, things change.
What used to be bad is now good. Sometimes, what used to be good is now bad. It's true for concepts; it's true for people; and it's true for markets.
In turn, this is what attracts me to the market analysis that can help anticipate these changes -- the Elliott Wave Principle.