The "Stupid Season" of politics is the period soon before an election, when people will say literally anything for (or against) the candidate they want (or not). No one enjoys it, but most mature adults have come to expect it -- like the way we expect broken glass all over an intersection after two automobiles collide.
The thing is, the Stupid Season is supposed to end once the election is decided. And while we do have an election next week (Nov. 2), it's not the one I have in mind. Instead, I believe that any rational political observer will agree that the Stupid Season from the 2008 election never ended. It's been with us for more than two years. And the Stupid Season from the previous election made a seamless transition into the current election cycle.
What do I mean, exactly?
Well, I cast my first vote some thirty years ago. I was a political science major in school and remain an unabashed news junkie. In post-WWII American politics, I believe nothing compares to the past two years. The flood of pandering and vitriol; the bizarre conspiracy theories; the shameless demagoguery; the outright stupidity -- and so much more -- have combined to create something unique.
And frankly, I don't think my observation amounts to some "deep" insight. The behavior has been conspicuous everywhere: among politicians in both parties, the mainstream print and broadcast media, the blogosphere, in academia, in the think tanks.
Lest my words read like me getting something off my chest, please know this: Today's state of political affairs is not a surprise. If anything, it was predictable -- and as Bob Prechter's readers know, today's mood and actions were predictable to an astonishing degree. In October 2003, his Elliott Wave Theorist described the turn in collective mood from bullishly positive to bearishly negative. Prechter also said this turn would be obvious, and even provided a 100-point list of what to look for, including trends in politics. These bullet points come word-for-word from that 2003 issue:
- The U.S. will increase restrictions on immigration.
- The U.S. will require internal travel papers.
- Both patriotism and anti-government sentiment will grow into powerful emotional forces.
- Openness and transparency will give way to secrecy. Spies and exclusive social organizations will have increased standing and power.
- The U.S. will accelerate its trend toward socialism. Opposition to that trend will be vigorous.
Just to be absolutely clear, Bob's point then (and my point now) really has nothing to do with politics. It's about what makes for rational, objective, and unbiased analysis. There's never been a more important time for that type of analysis to be on your computer screen.
The Stupid Season will not end after the coming election. Every indication is that it will continue and grow more extreme. Make no mistake: the collective mood that's so obvious in politics is also driving the dominant trends in the economy, the financial markets, and the culture itself. All of these will likewise turn more extreme.
You can be prepared by reading tomorrow's news today -- in The Socionomist, the monthly publication from the exceptional team of editors and researchers at Prechter's Socionomics Institute. The recent September issue updates subscribers on the growing trend toward authoritarianism, including the above-mentioned "internal travel papers" forecast.