"In ancient times, when bear markets occurred and sovereigns had a lot of power, they took it out on the people. But in modern days, the people take it out on the politicians."
Robert Prechter
Many Americans are angry. But a big national pillow fight to help release that anger is not on the calendar. An election is -- and it's just days away.
We've all seen how that anger has flowed like lava in the political arena: The Tea Party, talk show host rallies, and declining poll numbers for sitting politicians, including President Obama. This negative mood is likely to be conspicuous on election day:
"In The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, Robert Prechter, Jr. predicts that declining mood will result in a polarized electorate, rising popularity for third parties and the ejection of incumbents. In Popular Culture and the Stock Market, he says falling mood will lead to growing numbers of women taking office."
The Socionomist, June 2010
The four forecasts mentioned in the above quote were all "first" published years ago. And this election year appears to be bringing about what Prechter anticipated in each case:
1. Rising Popularity for Third Parties: The Tea Party has proved to be more than a flash in the pan. Candidates backed by the Tea Party movement have won several Republican primaries, including Delaware senatorial candidate Christine O'Donnell, New York gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino, Nevada senatorial candidate Sharron Angle, and Kentucky senatorial candidate Rand Paul.
2. Polarized Electorate: CBS News reports that Independents now make up 40% of the electorate, a higher percentage than either Democrats or Republicans. Are they all turning to the Tea Party? Hardly. One Independent said, "It shouldn't be the Tea Party; it should be the Inflammatory Party." Other Independents also reject the Tea Party. So, the polarization goes beyond the usual Republican / Democrat divide and even farther than the introduction of a viable third party.
3. Ejection of Incumbents: The "incumbency advantage" has kept some office holders in their jobs for decades. But even entrenched office holders seem vulnerable this year, like Senate majority leader Harry Reid. A June headline from politicsdaily.com reads, "Anti-Incumbent Mood at Its Strongest Compared to Previous Elections." The article goes on to report:
"Sixty percent of Americans say they are 'inclined' to look around for another candidate when it comes to how they vote in this year's midterm elections...according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll..."
4. Growing Number of Women Taking Office: According to the June Socionomist:
"Here is a roundup of major upcoming races involving women:
"California: In June, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman won the GOP nomination for Governor; former Hewlitt-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina tries to unseat longtime senator Barbara Boxer this fall.
"Nevada: State legislator and Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle won the GOP Senate primary...
"South Carolina: State legislator Nikki Haley competes in a runoff for GOP gubernatorial candidate later this month. [Update: Haley won the runoff]
"National: Sarah Palin is the undeclared leader of the Tea Party movement and its most popular speaker.
"...The Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University counted a record number of women candidates for this fall’s mid-term elections."