Why "Marijuana Prohibition" May Go Up in Smoke

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Why "Marijuana Prohibition" May Go Up in Smoke
Getting Closer to Legal Cannabis for Recreational Use?

By Bob Stokes
Wed, 06 Oct 2010 16:30:00 ET

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Imagine a policeman in California walking past an apartment as marijuana smoke drifts out an open window.

Would you expect the policeman to bang on the door and arrest the "toker?"

Well, the pot smoker will have done nothing to get arrested for -- if Proposition 19 passes in California on November 2. Any user who is 21, has no minors in the residence, and possesses less than an ounce -- will be within his legal rights.

The new law will even permit adults to grow cannabis:

"...the initiative would allow individuals to possess up to about 120 joints and cultivate 25 square feet of plants, capable of yielding up to 240,000 joints."

Christian Science Monitor (8/30)

How is Proposition 19 faring in the polls? Here's an excerpt from one recent report:

"The push to legalize marijuana in California is seeing increased public support...

A field poll shows likely voters support Proposition 19 by a 49-to-42 percent margin. In July Prop 19 trailed by four points."

from ABC30 in Fresno (9/27)

This poll reflects a larger trend in public opinion, which is increasingly tolerant of marijuana use. The Socionomics Institute (EWI's sister organization) forecast this trend by studying the repeal of prohibition during the bear market psychology of the early 1930s.

"The Coming Collapse of a Modern Prohibition"

That was the title of the July 2009 Socionomist, the monthly publication of the Socionomics Institute. The Socionomist presents monthly case studies of the "socionomic insight" -- social mood shapes events; events do not shape social mood. As noted above, for example, social mood during the Great Depression led to the repeal of prohibition. Here's what that Socionomist issue said about societal mood and marijuana prohibition:

"Social mood influences people's actions and their social judgments. In times of positive mood, people have the resources to enforce their social desires. They can afford to express the black and white moral issues preferred during bull markets, and drug abuse is a favorite target.

"During times of negative mood, on the other hand, society's priorities change. People have other, bigger worries and begin to view recreational drugs as less dangerous, if not innocuous in offering stress relief, pain reduction and the ability to cope with the pressures of negative social mood.

"Over the past 100 years, governmental activities have manifested these changing attitudes. During periods of rising mood, policymakers stepped up regulation of cannabis. During periods of falling mood, they eased those same stances."

For a limited-time, you can access the entire predictive study from the Socionomics Institute -- for free. Click here to learn how to download your free report on marijuana prohibition.

Tags: The Socionomist, Elliott Wave Principle

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