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Chasing High-Yield: "The Next Disaster"?
Warning: Defaults and Downgrades are Common During a Depression

By Bob Stokes
Mon, 20 Sep 2010 17:45:00 ET
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The national average for money market account yields is .78% (bankrate.com).
 
If you're willing to lock your money into a CD for a full five years, the yield is a whopping 2.46%.
 
Many investors who succumbed to the stock mania have said "never again" to the inherent risk of equity markets.
 
So what are many of them doing to get more than the dismal money market or CD yields?
 
"…most investors are not hiding in Treasuries; they are chasing yield! To that end, they are shunning Treasuries to invest in high-yield money market funds and bond funds, which hold less-than-pristine corporate and municipal debt."
Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist (Sept. 2010)
 
Prechter reports these figures for bond sales in just the month of August:
 
  • Taxable corporate bond funds, $26 billion
 
  • Muni-bond funds, $5 billion
 
  • Long-term government bond funds, only $191 million
 
Moreover, Prechter quotes from a recent Bloomberg report:
 
"Junk bond sales have reached $172.2 billion in 2010, exceeding the annual record set in 2009, with more than three months left in the year."
 
Here's an excerpt from Conquer the Crash, 2nd edition, pp. 145-146:
 
"Bonds rated AAA or BBB at the start of a depression generally do not keep those ratings throughout it. Many go straight to D and then become de-listed because of default....
 
"Wall Street, in a rare display of honesty, calls bonds rated BB or lower 'junk.' They appear to have 'high yields', so people still buy them.
 
"That very yield, though, compounds the risk to principal. In a bad economy, companies and municipalities that have issued bonds at high yields find it increasingly difficult to meet their interest payments. The prices of those bonds fall as investors perceive increased risk and sell them. The real result in such cases is a low yield or a negative yield, particularly if the issuer defaults and your principal is gone."
 
We've seen the shocks in the stock market; likewise the plummeting real estate market, which the latest data shows is still in decline. The next shock may well come from defaults and downgrades in the bond markets, where investors thought it was "safe" to chase higher yields. Prepare now. We invite you to take a risk-free look at our Financial Forecast Service, which includes the just-published September Elliott Wave Theorist, via this link.
 
(P.S. If you have a sizeable nest egg to protect, you owe it to yourself to read the 200-page manual Wealth Preservation in Very High-Risk Tmes. This "wealth protection volume" is from the SafeWealth Group -- who specialize in your financial safety and peace of mind. Follow this link to learn how to get this "wealth safety" manual.)
 
 
 

Tags: U.S. Treasuries, Robert Prechter
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